Churn and retention rate risk in subscription purchases through the company's own e-commerce site
First written in FY2023. 6 of 11 entries say "Mitigated", first in FY2025-Q1. Latest entry: 2026-10-15.
5 other companies' latest entry also says "Worsened".
- 2026-10-15WorsenedEarnings presentation
「LTVと解約率のQoQでの悪化は、Q1における新規獲得の集中の⼀時的結果であり、YoYでは商品とサービスの継続的改善により改善している。」
新規顧客獲得の集中により、LTVと解約率は前四半期比で一時的に悪化したと記載している。一方、前年同期比では改善している。 - FY2027-H1MaterialisedAnnual report
「As the proportion of light users temporarily increased following the sharp rise in subscription membership in the first quarter, the churn rate and LTV (customer lifetime value) deteriorated from the previous quarter, although both remained within the expected range.」
Under the subscription model, the churn rate and LTV actually deteriorated as the proportion of light users increased following the sharp rise in membership. - 2026-07-15MitigatedEarnings presentation
「The churn rate has remained low and LTV high, further strengthening the foundation for earnings growth from Q2 onward.」
The churn rate remained low, while indicators related to subscription continuation remained improved. - FY2026MitigatedAnnual report
「As of February 2026, the number of subscription members was 235,000, and the customer retention rate was 96.5% (Note).」
The cancellation rate fell from 4.2% in the previous fiscal year to 3.5%, while the customer retention rate reached 96.5%. Metrics relating to the continuation of subscriptions improved. - 2026-04-14MitigatedEarnings presentation
「The churn rate is at a record low, while LTV has reached a record-high level,」
Alongside the increase in subscription customers, the Company reported improvements in churn and LTV, indicating lower risk concerning the continuation of subscriptions. - FY2026-H1MaterialisedAnnual report
「The main KPIs declined, partly due to skips of scheduled orders caused by the extreme heat.」
Scheduled orders were actually skipped due to the extreme heat, and the risk relating to the sustainability of the subscription model emerged again. - FY2025MitigatedAnnual report
「The continued launch of new products, centered on the core BASE BREAD series, also proved effective, and the cancellation rate reached its lowest level ever.」
The cancellation rate was 4.2% in the fourth quarter of the fiscal year ended February 2025, down from 6.9% in the fourth quarter of the previous fiscal year and at its lowest level ever. - FY2025-H1MitigatedAnnual report
「Purchase value per customer and the cancellation rate also improved each quarter, and customer lifetime value (LTV) reached a record high, demonstrating the strength of the brand during the six-month period.」
Regarding the risk of subscription cancellations, the company states that the cancellation rate improved quarter by quarter. It is making progress in addressing a risk that had emerged previously. - FY2025-Q1MitigatedAnnual report
「As a result of strengthening product appeal, the churn rate and average purchase value improved, and sales through the company's own EC amounted to ¥2,301.080 million.」
Regarding the risk of subscription cancellations that emerged after the voluntary product recall, the company states that the cancellation rate improved through measures to strengthen product appeal. - FY2024-Q3MaterialisedAnnual report
「In addition to an increase in subscription cancellations following the announcement of the voluntary recall of certain products, the number of regular purchasers remained weak because advertising for new customer acquisition was temporarily suspended.」
Compared with the previously assumed retention rate, an actual increase in subscription member cancellations occurred after the voluntary product recall. - FY2023First statedAnnual report
「The budgets and management plans prepared by the company are based on a customer retention rate that reflects a cancellation rate calculated from past results. However, the retention rate could fall significantly below the company's expectations due to a decline in the appeal of its products and services, reduced competitiveness against competitors, or lower satisfaction with additional features and support.」
The company uses customer retention as a growth assumption for its subscription model and lists factors that could reduce retention.