An article presenting views on market moves after the U.S. midterm elections. A Democratic victory in the House of Representatives is viewed as likely, while the Senate race is closely contested. The end of the Trump era is a focus for the market, and the article also presents the view that the possibility of a renewed Iran war could determine market moves.
In these U.S. midterm elections, a Democratic victory in the House of Representatives is considered highly likely, while the Senate remains closely divided, increasing the possibility that the Democrats will control both chambers. Betting site Polymarket reportedly puts the probability of a Democratic victory at 95%, while Kalshi puts it at 94%, and an outlook has also been presented that the Democrats will secure 227 seats.
The article also points to questions over President Trump's ability to advance his policies and says that changes in the administration's governance could affect the market. A Democratic victory could create downward pressure on share prices and influence U.S. interest rates and the dollar in the short term, and developments going forward are being watched.
Meanwhile, the possibility of military action from November onward is increasing, and concerns are emerging that oil prices could rise because President Trump has hinted at a renewed attack on Iran. If the risk of war increases, a period of yen selling and dollar buying could occur, and the article cautions that it would be dangerous to read the market's reaction immediately after the election too casually.
Overall, the view presented is that a further leftward shift in the United States could strengthen selling pressure on the dollar over the medium to long term, and that these midterm elections could prompt the market to focus on “the end of the Trump era.”