The November forecast range for USD/JPY is ¥155–¥160, with the outcome of the US midterm elections and the direction of future US monetary policy expected to be the key focuses.
The underlying trend in USD/JPY is searching for direction, and the forecast range for November is ¥155.000 to ¥160.000.
USD/JPY traded in a range of ¥156.078 to ¥158.949 in October, ending the month slightly higher. While affected by higher crude oil prices and US long-term interest rates, the prospect of yen-buying intervention by the Bank of Japan supported the downside, and there were also periods when concerns over AI and semiconductor investment triggered renewed stock declines, risk aversion and yen buying.
The FOMC and Bank of Japan policy decisions had a limited market impact and did not significantly change expectations for a rate hike at the next meeting in December or the direction of policy management. Future dollar moves are likely to depend on the midterm election results and the political developments that follow.
The dollar's short-term reaction is expected to be limited depending on the midterm election results. In a scenario in which the Democratic Party has the advantage, attention will need to be paid to trends in AI-related stocks and developments concerning government operations.
Japan and the United States are scheduled to release various economic indicators in November, and information on policy management is expected to affect markets as it becomes available.