FY2026 earnings outlook based on the Business Outlook Survey of Enterprises

The Business Outlook Survey of Enterprises was released on 11 September and indicated a tendency toward upward revisions to plans for net sales and ordinary profit in FY2026 across both manufacturing and non-manufacturing industries. This article reviews the industries expected to perform well ahead of the next earnings season. The charts show that the overall rate of increase in net sales has been revised upward, suggesting that attention will focus on industries with strong net sales plans for the current fiscal year.

Industries expected to see substantial upward revisions to net sales include nonferrous metals, petroleum and coal products, and information and communications machinery. Growth in demand for AI servers and data centers, as well as increased production of high-performance materials, is expected to contribute. Electrical machinery and general-purpose machinery are also expected to benefit from similar tailwinds, while price pass-through and improved operating rates are seen supporting sales growth.

Industries expected to see substantial upward revisions to ordinary profit include information and communications machinery, petroleum and coal products, paper and pulp, nonferrous metals, and timber and wooden products. Increased AI investment, stronger demand for advanced equipment, and the appropriate pass-through of raw material costs are cited as factors supporting profit growth. In particular, information and communications machinery is expected to benefit from a higher proportion of high-priced equipment and improved operating rates.

The industry-by-industry earnings plans in the Bank of Japan’s September Tankan survey are also attracting attention and will be considered alongside these data as a clue to the outlook for the next fiscal year. Earnings announcements are expected to begin in late October, making continued monitoring of the next fiscal year’s earnings outlook necessary.