Shareholder returns by Japanese companies in fiscal 2026 have been revised upward to a total of ¥55.6 trillion. Against the backdrop of growth in dividends and share repurchases, dividend increase announcements stood out in the April-June quarter, while year-to-date share repurchases have also built up substantially.
Total dividends by Japanese companies in fiscal 2026 are expected to reach ¥31.6 trillion, up 20.3% year on year, while total share repurchases are expected to reach ¥24.0 trillion, up 27.3%, and total shareholder returns ¥55.6 trillion, up 23.3%. These estimates reflect revisions based on the upward forecast issued on 10 August and shareholder return results to date. Dividend increases in line with earnings growth are expected from fiscal 2027 onward, while share repurchases are expected to decline slightly while remaining at high levels.
Dividend increase announcements stood out in earnings announcements for the April-June quarter. The median dividend payout ratio for fiscal 2026 among TOPIX constituents is expected to exceed 40%, with the proportion of companies in the 40–45% range increasing. Share repurchase announcements also came in quick succession, with total repurchases reaching ¥20.6 trillion year to date in 2026 and ¥12.9 trillion fiscal year to date as of 25 August.
The analysis presented was based on trends over the past five years, including the announcement effect: the median share price rose approximately 1.7% on the business day following a share repurchase announcement, while the increase following a dividend increase announcement was limited to approximately 0.5%, with relative underperformance tending to emerge after one week. Pressure on companies regarding shareholder returns is likely to persist, supported by their financial capacity.