The proportion of companies providing dividend increase guidance in 4Q results for the fiscal year ending March 2026 reached a record high, indicating continued strengthening of shareholder returns. Meanwhile, share price reactions among dividend-positive stocks vary by ETI category for earnings trends.
In the latest earnings announcements, the proportion of stocks providing dividend increase guidance in 4Q reached a record high, at approximately 70% among TOPIX 500 stocks and approximately 50% among TOPIX Small stocks. Factors including reforms by the Tokyo Stock Exchange appear to be encouraging companies to adopt a more proactive approach to shareholder returns.
An analysis of the long-term performance of dividend-positive stocks, using the time-series earnings trend indicator ETI and dividing stocks into large- and small-cap groups, found that since the fiscal year ended March 2021, stocks with flat earnings trends have tended to show favorable share price reactions. The findings suggest that market expectations are more likely to be priced into companies with high ETI scores, limiting the effect of surprises.
Among the stocks that provided dividend increase guidance in the latest earnings announcements, the medium-ETI group includes Stanley Electric, Shionogi & Co., and Kintetsu Group Holdings. Differences in share price reactions were identified across ETI categories, highlighting the importance of balance when assessing future catalysts.