External environment risks, including yen appreciation, the stock market and a slowdown in overseas economies

「一方で、中東情勢の緊迫化による原油高や、記録的な円安に起因する高物価の定着、さらには地政学的リスクの長期化や深刻な自然災害の発生など、景気の下振れ要因が多く見られます。」

「However, numerous downside factors are evident, including higher crude oil prices resulting from the military conflict that broke out in Iran in February 2026, continued inflation caused by the gradual weakening of the yen, and prolonged global geopolitical instability, including in Iran.」

「However, numerous downside factors are evident, including higher crude oil prices resulting from the military conflict that broke out in Iran in February 2026, continued inflation caused by the gradual weakening of the yen, and prolonged global geopolitical instability, including in Iran.」

「However, numerous downside factors are evident, including lower consumer sentiment due to inflation, global disruption caused by US tariff policy, and US-China trade friction. In addition, the situations in Ukraine and the Middle East have deepened uncertainty over the economic outlook.」

「However, numerous downside factors are evident, including lower consumer sentiment due to inflation, the weaker yen, deterioration in corporate performance due to higher costs in certain industries, and a slowdown in China’s economy. The situation in Ukraine and the Middle East, whose resolution remains unforeseeable, has deepened uncertainty over the economic outlook.」

「The situation in Ukraine and the Middle East, whose resolution remains unforeseeable, has deepened uncertainty over the economic outlook.」

「However, numerous downside factors are evident, including deterioration in corporate performance due to inflation, the weaker yen, and higher costs in certain industries, as well as a slowdown in the global economy triggered by monetary tightening in major countries other than Japan. The situation in Ukraine, whose resolution remains unforeseeable, and concerns over a resurgence of COVID-19 have deepened uncertainty over the economic outlook.」

「Numerous downside factors are evident, including a slowdown in the global economy triggered by monetary tightening in major countries other than Japan. The situation in Ukraine, whose resolution remains unforeseeable, and concerns over the renewed spread of COVID-19 have deepened uncertainty over the economic outlook.」

「However, numerous downside factors are evident, including deterioration in consumer sentiment and lower purchasing power due to rising resource prices and the weaker yen, deterioration in corporate performance due to higher costs in certain industries, and a slowdown in the global economy triggered by monetary tightening in major countries other than Japan. The situation in Ukraine, whose resolution remains unforeseeable, and concerns over the renewed spread of COVID-19 have deepened uncertainty over the economic outlook.」

「At present, numerous downside factors are evident, including deterioration in consumer sentiment and lower purchasing power due to rising resource prices and the weaker yen, as well as deterioration in corporate performance due to higher costs in certain industries. The situation in Ukraine, whose resolution remains unforeseeable, and concerns over the renewed spread of COVID-19 have deepened uncertainty over the economic outlook.」

「During the first quarter of the current cumulative consolidated period, Japan’s economy recovered gradually, led by private consumption, as the impact of COVID-19 weakened. However, at present, numerous downside factors are evident, including deterioration in consumer sentiment and lower purchasing power due to rising resource prices and the weaker yen, as well as deterioration in corporate performance due to higher costs. The situation in Ukraine, whose resolution remains unforeseeable, and the renewed spread of COVID-19 have deepened uncertainty over the economic outlook.」

「Against this backdrop, downside factors including surging resource prices and financial-market turmoil resulting from the escalating and prolonged situation in Ukraine, as well as concerns over the spread of the Omicron variant, have deepened uncertainty over the economic outlook.」

「However, following overseas developments, infections caused by the highly transmissible Omicron variant have been spreading rapidly in Japan since January, creating uncertainty over the outlook for the economic recovery.」

「With the state of emergency and quasi-emergency measures lifted in October, a full economic recovery is expected. However, concerns remain over a resurgence of COVID-19 and the adverse impact of rising energy and raw-material prices on corporate earnings and, in turn, private consumption.」

「As for the next period, the impact of the spread of COVID-19 is expected to persist, and it is believed that the world and Japan will require a prolonged period to recover from its effects. In these circumstances, a substantial impact on sales, particularly in the food-service business, is unavoidable. The outlook for the retail and domestic and overseas wholesale businesses also remains uncertain.」

「During the third quarter of the current cumulative consolidated period, Japan’s economy is expected to continue growing following second-quarter real GDP growth of positive 5.3% quarter on quarter, or positive 22.9% on an annualized basis. However, from November, restrictions on economic activity intensified following the arrival of the third wave of COVID-19, making the economic recovery gradual. In addition, the outlook for the economy has become increasingly uncertain, with a new state of emergency declared starting on 7 January in the Tokyo metropolitan area and 3 neighboring prefectures.」

「During the second quarter of the current cumulative consolidated period, Japan’s economy is expected to grow, following the first quarter’s real GDP growth of negative 7.9% quarter on quarter, or negative 28.1% on an annualized basis, as the economy rebounds from the severe impact of the spread of COVID-19. However, because the end of the outbreak remains unforeseeable and infections remain a concern, it is necessary to balance preventing the spread of infection with raising the level of socioeconomic activity, meaning that the economic recovery is unavoidably expected to be gradual.」

「During the first quarter of the current cumulative consolidated period, Japan’s economy was severely affected by the spread of COVID-19, resulting in sharp declines in private consumption and exports. Real GDP growth for the quarter is expected to fall by more than 5% quarter on quarter, or more than 20% on an annualized basis, a decline exceeding that seen during the global financial crisis. Economic activity has gradually picked up since the state of emergency was lifted on 25 May, but the end of the outbreak remains unforeseeable, and the country remains concerned about the possibility of second and third waves of infections.」

「As for the next period, the global economy is expected to slow significantly, with declines in consumption and stagnant production activity, due to the impact of the spread of COVID-19.」

「However, recently, exports have weakened as overseas economies, led by China, which has been strongly affected by trade friction with the United States, have slowed, raising concerns that tensions between the two countries could be prolonged or intensify. In addition, the economy remains strongly exposed to downside risks from factors including geopolitical risks on the Korean Peninsula and in the Middle East, political turmoil in Europe, the United States and Hong Kong, and supply constraints in certain industries resulting from worsening labor shortages.」

「However, recently, exports have weakened as overseas economies, led by China, which has been strongly affected by trade friction with the United States, have slowed, raising concerns about a further escalation of tensions between the two countries. In addition, the economy remains strongly exposed to downside risks from factors including geopolitical risks on the Korean Peninsula and in the Middle East, political turmoil in Europe, the United States and Hong Kong, and supply constraints in certain industries resulting from worsening labor shortages.」

「However, recently, exports have weakened as overseas economies, led by China, which has been affected by trade friction with the United States, have slowed. In addition, the economy remains strongly exposed to downside risks from factors including geopolitical risks on the Korean Peninsula and in the Middle East, political turmoil in Europe and the United States, and supply constraints in certain industries resulting from worsening labor shortages.」

「However, recently, economic conditions have weakened overseas, particularly in China, which has been affected by trade friction with the United States, and in Europe. The economy remains exposed to downside risks from factors including geopolitical risks on the Korean Peninsula and in the Middle East, political turmoil in Europe and the United States, and supply constraints in certain industries resulting from worsening labor shortages.」

「However, the economy remains exposed to domestic and overseas downside risks, including the impact on the real economy of escalating confrontations with China and other countries over US protectionist trade policies, geopolitical risks on the Korean Peninsula and in the Middle East, political turmoil in Europe and the United States, the impact of rising US interest rates on international financial markets, and supply constraints in certain industries resulting from worsening labor shortages.」

「However, the economy remains exposed to downside risks, including geopolitical risks such as heightened tensions on the Korean Peninsula and in the Middle East, uncertainty in overseas conditions including US-China trade friction and concerns over a slowdown in China’s economy, and supply constraints in certain industries resulting from worsening labor shortages.」

「However, concerns remain about downside risks to the economy, including geopolitical risks such as heightened tensions on the Korean Peninsula and in the Middle East, uncertain overseas conditions such as US protectionist moves and concerns over a slowdown in China's economy, and supply constraints in certain industries caused by worsening labour shortages.」

「However, concerns remain about downside risks to the economy, including geopolitical risks such as heightened tensions on the Korean Peninsula, uncertain overseas conditions such as US protectionist moves and concerns over a slowdown in China's economy, and supply constraints in certain industries caused by worsening labour shortages.」

「However, concerns remain about downside risks to the economy, including geopolitical risks such as heightened tensions on the Korean Peninsula, uncertain overseas conditions such as US protectionist moves and concerns over a slowdown in China's economy, stagnation in private consumption due to sluggish growth in real wages, and supply constraints in certain industries caused by worsening labour shortages.」

「Concerns persist about risks that could weigh on the Japanese economy, including US protectionist moves, disruption associated with the UK's EU withdrawal, China's economic management and conditions in the Korean Peninsula and the Middle East.」

「Although the global economy generally remained on a recovery trend due to a gradual pickup, renewed yen depreciation after the US presidential election and relatively stable resource prices, concerns persist about risks that could weigh on the Japanese economy, including US protectionism, disruption associated with the UK's EU withdrawal, China's economic management and conditions on the Korean Peninsula.」

「Although the Japanese economy remains on a gradual recovery trend during the 3rd quarter cumulative consolidated period, concerns remain about downside risks depending on the impact of future US government policy developments on foreign exchange rates and stock markets overseas, as well as trends in financial markets in Asia, particularly China.」

「Although the Japanese economy remains on a gradual recovery trend, concerns persist about risks that could weigh on the economy, including the trend toward yen appreciation and an unstable stock market, economic slowdowns in emerging Asian and resource-exporting countries, particularly China, and growing uncertainty over the outlook for the European economy stemming from the UK's EU withdrawal issue.」

「Although the Japanese economy remains on a gradual recovery trend, concerns persist about risks that could weigh on the economy, including the advancing appreciation of the yen and an unstable stock market, economic slowdowns in emerging Asian and resource-exporting countries, particularly China, and disruption to the European economy following the UK's decision to leave the EU.」