Uncertainty in the Economic Outlook Due to Overseas Policy and Geopolitical Developments

「Overseas, uncertainty also persisted amid prolonged trade friction surrounding US tariff policy and continuing geopolitical risks. Although inflationary pressures in major countries have begun to ease to some extent, high interest rates remain a concern for a global economic slowdown.」

「Overseas, uncertainty remained due to a global economic slowdown caused by US interest rate trends and the slowdown in the European and Chinese economies, as well as supply chain restructuring associated with prolonged geopolitical risks.」

「In addition to sharp fluctuations in foreign exchange rates and persistently high resource prices, price increases became pronounced.」

「During the six-month consolidated fiscal period (1 April 2025 to 30 September 2025), personal consumption and corporate earnings began to recover, while the normalization of monetary policy by the Bank of Japan, foreign exchange fluctuations, and persistently high resource prices affected corporate activity. Overseas, uncertainty surrounding the outlook for the global economy increased due to US interest rate trends, the slowdown in the European economy, and the delayed recovery of the Chinese economy. In addition, geopolitical risks remained prolonged and global supply chain restructuring continued, resulting in cautious corporate investment decisions and continued uncertainty about the outlook.」

「Meanwhile, the outlook remained uncertain due to the prolonged impact of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, heightened tensions in the Middle East, developments in US policy, including trade policy, and volatility in financial and capital markets.」

「During the six-month consolidated fiscal period (1 April 2024 to 30 September 2024), the Japanese economy showed signs of a moderate recovery, supported by inbound demand, personal consumption, and employment conditions. However, the outlook remained uncertain due to the prolonged impact of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, heightened tensions in the Middle East, and sharp fluctuations in foreign exchange rates resulting from the monetary policies of Japan and the United States.」

「As the classification of COVID-19 under the Infectious Diseases Control Law was moved to Category 5, socioeconomic activity began to normalize after the pandemic, and the economy showed a moderate recovery, including slight year-on-year GDP growth. However, the outlook is expected to remain uncertain due to concerns that personal consumption may slow as prices rise amid fluctuations in foreign exchange rates and resource and energy prices.」

「Meanwhile, the outlook remained uncertain due to the expansion of geopolitical risks, including soaring resource and energy prices resulting from the prolonged Russia-Ukraine situation and the Israel-Palestine situation.」

「Meanwhile, the outlook remained uncertain due to soaring resource and raw material prices resulting from the prolonged Russia-Ukraine situation, rising prices caused by the yen's depreciation, and the situation between Israel and Palestine.」

「During the first 3 quarters of the consolidated fiscal year (1 April 2022 to 31 December 2022), the Japanese economy showed signs of a moderate recovery as measures to address COVID-19 and various restrictions on activities were eased. Meanwhile, the outlook remained uncertain due to surging global resource prices and inflation, as well as the effects of the yen's depreciation.」

「Meanwhile, the outlook remained uncertain due to higher resource and energy prices following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, as well as rising import prices resulting from the rapid depreciation of the yen amid widening interest rate differentials between Japan and overseas markets.」

「During the first quarter of the consolidated fiscal year (1 April 2022 to 30 June 2022), expectations arose for an economic recovery as restrictions on various activities imposed to prevent the spread of COVID-19 were eased. However, the outlook remained uncertain due to the rapid depreciation of the yen, instability in international affairs caused by the increasingly tense Russia-Ukraine situation, and soaring resource and raw material prices.」

「Meanwhile, the outlook remained uncertain due to semiconductor shortages, disruption to logistics networks, soaring global crude oil prices, the situation between Russia and Ukraine, and further increases in global inflationary pressure.」

「Meanwhile, shortages of semiconductors and other components led to stagnation in production, while higher raw material prices and transportation costs became apparent, leaving the economic outlook uncertain. More recently, uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook has increased further due to the rapid spread of variants, concerns about high inflation in the United States, and heightened tensions in Eastern Europe.」

「During the second quarter of the consolidated fiscal year (1 April 2021 to 30 September 2021), the Japanese economy remained uncertain, as the resurgence of infections caused by variants led to the reissuance of the state of emergency and priority preventive measures, despite accelerating COVID-19 vaccinations. Although economic recovery was expected as vaccinations progressed, risks including surging raw material prices, a global semiconductor shortage, and slowing growth in the Chinese economy had also become apparent, and the situation remained unpredictable.」

「During the first quarter of the consolidated fiscal year, the Japanese economy remained uncertain due to restrictions on the movement of people, including the state of emergency and priority preventive measures imposed in response to the spread of COVID-19. However, economic activity gradually entered a recovery trend as the global economy recovered and vaccinations progressed. Positive factors included increased at-home consumption, the full-scale spread of 5G, and the development of communications infrastructure through the shift to remote work and other remote operations. Meanwhile, face-to-face service industries such as lodging and food services remained in a difficult situation, and disparities between industries and regions widened. In addition, as economies in Japan and overseas moved toward normalization, concerns included rising cost burdens associated with higher fuel prices, shortages of materials such as lumber and steel, and a global semiconductor crunch.」

「During the consolidated fiscal year, the Japanese economy remained in a difficult situation as it was significantly affected by the spread of COVID-19. Although signs of recovery from the sharp domestic economic downturn were seen in the first half of the year, the pace of recovery remained moderate due to the economic losses caused by the resurgence of infections and the reissuance of the state of emergency in the second half.」

「During the first 3 quarters of the consolidated fiscal year, the Japanese economy showed signs of recovery from the sharp downturn following the spread of COVID-19. However, with no end to the pandemic in sight, the pace of economic recovery remained moderate. Domestic demand also faced downside risks, as a mood of self-restraint caused by the resurgence of infections weighed on personal consumption, while the employment and income environment deteriorated due to factors including a rising unemployment rate.」

「During the first quarter of the consolidated fiscal year, the Japanese economy experienced a further slowdown as the global spread of COVID-19 and restrictions on socioeconomic activity imposed to contain the virus weighed on economic conditions. Going forward, socioeconomic activity is expected to be eased in stages while measures are taken to prevent the spread of infection, but the situation is expected to remain challenging amid concerns about second and third waves of infections.」

「During the consolidated fiscal year, the Japanese economy was supported by factors including persistent corporate appetite for capital investment to address labor shortages and improve productivity, as well as continued growth in public investment driven by demand for disaster recovery and reconstruction, despite ongoing downside risks to overseas economies from escalating US-China trade friction and rising geopolitical risks.」

「During the cumulative third quarter, Japan's economy continued to face downside risks from overseas economies, including escalating trade friction between the United States and China and heightened geopolitical risks. However, the economy was supported by the limited impact, compared with the previous consumption tax increase in 2014, of the increase in personal consumption ahead of the tax increase and the subsequent decline in consumption, as well as by strong corporate investment in response to labor shortages and to improve productivity, and a sustained upward trend in public investment driven by reconstruction and recovery demand following natural disasters.」

「During the cumulative second quarter, Japan's economy continued to experience weak exports and production as the global economy slowed against a backdrop of concerns over escalating and prolonged trade friction between the United States and China. However, corporate investment in productivity improvements and measures to address labor shortages remained firm, and domestic demand remained resilient, supported by front-loaded consumption ahead of the consumption tax increase.」

「During the cumulative first quarter, Japan's economy continued to be affected by weak exports and production due in part to the slowdown in the Chinese economy, but capital investment remained firm against a backdrop of high corporate earnings, while personal consumption showed signs of a boost from special demand associated with the 10-day holiday period.」

「The slowdown in the Chinese economy amid escalating trade friction between the United States and China, and uncertainty surrounding the UK's scheduled departure from the EU in March 2019, remain risk factors.」

「The escalation of trade friction between the United States and China and uncertainty surrounding the UK's negotiations to leave the EU remain risk factors.」

「However, concerns include uncertainty surrounding overseas governments and the increasingly protectionist nature of US trade policy, and the economic outlook remains uncertain.」

「However, overseas, concerns include uncertainty surrounding the governments of Western countries and trade friction between the United States and China, and the economic outlook remains uncertain.」

「However, overseas, concerns include uncertainty surrounding the governments of Western countries and rising tensions on the Korean Peninsula, and the economic outlook remains uncertain.」

「However, overseas, concerns include the continuing uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration's policy management in the United States and rising tensions on the Korean Peninsula, and the economic outlook remains uncertain.」

「However, overseas, concerns include uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration's policy management in the United States and rising tensions on the Korean Peninsula, and the economic outlook remains uncertain.」