Global economic uncertainty and slowdown driven by trade issues, the UK’s withdrawal from the EU and additional tariffs

「During the fiscal year, personal consumption and corporate activity showed signs of caution amid continued uncertainty surrounding US trade and monetary policy. In China, the recovery in personal consumption and capital investment was also sluggish, and the economy weakened. Toward the end of the fiscal year, energy and raw material prices fluctuated against a backdrop of heightened tensions in the Middle East, while major currencies remained unstable in the foreign exchange market, and the outlook remained uncertain.」

「次期の見通しといたしましては、世界経済は米国の金融政策の動向や中国経済の回復ペースの鈍化に加え、中東情勢の緊張に伴う原油価格の変動、サプライチェーンを巡る地政学的リスクの高まりなど、依然として不透明な状況が続くものと想定されます。」

「During the six-month interim period, the US economy remained firm due to expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve and growth in high-tech-related industries, despite concerns over deteriorating personal consumption and corporate earnings due to higher tariffs. In China, large-scale economic measures supported the economy, but consumption remained sluggish as prolonged structural problems in the property market weighed on it, leaving the outlook for economic recovery uncertain.」

「During the fiscal year, the global economy remained unstable amid continued overseas geopolitical risks, including the situation in the Middle East, significant fluctuations in policy rates in Europe and the United States, foreign exchange and equity markets, stagnating economic growth in China, and the emergence of some effects from changes in US policy.」

「During the six-month interim period, the global economy remained generally weak against a backdrop of an economic downturn caused by deteriorating employment and income conditions, primarily due to the prolonged property slump in China, and worsening employment conditions in the United States as the rise in its inflation rate slowed.」

「During the fiscal year, the global economy remained in a period of stagnation amid continued global monetary tightening, slower growth in China and heightened geopolitical tensions due to the prolonged Russia-Ukraine conflict and instability in the Middle East.」

「During the first nine months of the fiscal year, prolonged inflation and the continuation of monetary tightening policies in various countries became downside factors for economic recovery. In addition, international conditions became increasingly unstable due to the unstable situation in the Middle East and concerns over a slowdown in China’s economy, leaving the global economy highly uncertain.」

「During the first six months of the fiscal year, the global economy remained in an uncertain situation. In addition to the economy’s slowing trend due to soaring resource and energy prices against a backdrop of the prolonged situation in Ukraine and global monetary tightening, concerns arose over a slower pace of economic recovery in China.」

「During the first quarter of the fiscal year, concerns over an economic slowdown arising from risks of higher interest rates and prices, against a backdrop of the prolonged situation in Ukraine, related soaring resource and energy prices and global monetary tightening, left the global economy in an uncertain situation.」

「During the fiscal year, efforts to balance COVID-19 measures with economic activity advanced, but concerns over an economic slowdown intensified due to the prolonged Ukraine conflict, sustained high resource and energy prices, and the effects of interest rate increases to curb inflation.」

「During the first nine months of the fiscal year, the global economy remained in an uncertain situation. Although it was on a moderate recovery trend, concerns arose over a possible entry into a recessionary phase due to higher prices and accelerating inflation caused by soaring resource and energy prices related to the situation in Ukraine, as well as monetary tightening in response.」

「During the first six months of the fiscal year, restrictions on movement and overseas travel related to COVID-19 were eased in many countries, and economic activity began to recover. However, the outlook remained uncertain due to soaring energy prices caused by the prolonged Russia-Ukraine conflict and accelerating inflation. In Japan, signs of an economic recovery were seen, particularly in personal consumption, but downside risks to the global economy arising from global monetary tightening and rising prices associated with the sharp depreciation of the yen affected the recovery in the domestic economy by slowing it.」

「During the first quarter of the fiscal year, the economy was on a recovery trend in many countries based on the assumption of living with COVID-19. However, the pace of recovery slowed due to downside factors including the deterioration of the situation in Ukraine, supply chain disruptions stemming from China’s zero-COVID policy, soaring raw material prices caused by higher crude oil prices and other factors, and sharp foreign exchange fluctuations.」

「During the fiscal year, the global economy showed signs of recovery, but remained in a difficult situation amid the resurgence of COVID-19, soaring raw material prices, global logistics disruptions and resulting constraints on materials supplies. In addition, concerns over the economic impact of the situation in Ukraine further increased uncertainty over the outlook.」

「During the first nine months of the fiscal year, the global economy maintained a moderate recovery trend, particularly in developed countries. However, in addition to the rapid global spread of newly emerging variants, concerns arose over global inflation caused by logistics problems and higher raw material prices, making the outlook for a full-fledged economic recovery uncertain.」

「During the first six months of the fiscal year, the global economy was on a moderate recovery trend as vaccination rates rose, particularly in developed countries. However, the outlook remained uncertain due to the rapid spread of COVID-19 variants in some regions, shortages of components including semiconductors and supply chain disruptions.」

「During the first quarter of the fiscal year, the global economy continued to be significantly affected by COVID-19. While progress in vaccinations, economic support measures and the easing of restrictions strengthened signs of recovery, particularly in the United States and China, infections continued to spread in emerging economies, and the global economy overall remained in a stop-and-start and uncertain situation.」

「During the first nine months of the fiscal year, the global economy showed some signs of recovery, but the spread of COVID-19 remained unabated and uncertainty over the outlook continued. In China, the spread of infections was successfully contained even after economic activity resumed, and the economy was on a recovery trend, supported by investment and exports that had been firm before the pandemic. In Europe and the United States, vaccination had begun in some areas, but the spread of infections intensified, with lockdowns imposed in some regions. The adverse effects on economic activity became pronounced, and concerns grew over a prolonged economic stagnation.」

「During the first six months of the fiscal year, the global economy continued to be affected by the spread of COVID-19, and signs of economic stagnation became pronounced. Against this backdrop, personal consumption was beginning to recover in China, and signs of an economic recovery were emerging, although conditions varied by industry and business type. In Europe and the United States, moves toward economic normalization strengthened following the lifting of lockdowns, but the economy had not recovered to pre-pandemic levels, and the outlook for the global economy remained uncertain amid concerns over a renewed spread of infections.」

「During the first quarter of the fiscal year, economic activity was significantly constrained in countries including the United States and Europe due to the spread of COVID-19. China was among the first countries to emerge from the worst of the pandemic and was showing signs of recovery, but many countries worldwide were still experiencing continued infection, leaving no choice but to assume delays in economic recovery and downside risks.」

「Toward the end of the fiscal year, concerns over the spread of COVID-19 forced economic activity to be curtailed worldwide, and the economies of major countries deteriorated significantly.」

「During the first nine months of the fiscal year, the global economy remained in a situation lacking strength. In the United States, employment remained firm and economic expansion continued, but downward pressures on the economy began to intensify, including sluggish personal consumption and slowing capital investment due to US-China trade friction. In Europe, the decline in external demand caused by US-China trade friction and other factors was beginning to spread to domestic demand, while negotiations over the UK’s withdrawal from the EU also weighed on the economy, which showed increasingly pronounced signs of slowing overall. In China, economic growth was slowing due to prolonged US-China trade friction. Although economic measures had recently suggested that the economy was bottoming out, their sustainability remained uncertain. In Japan, the economy was on a moderate recovery trend as income conditions improved, but repeated natural disasters, the consumption tax increase and expanding US-China trade friction were concerns as downside risks to the economy.」

「Prolonged US-China trade friction slowed the US economy, with signs of weakening production activity, particularly in manufacturing. In Europe, economic activity showed signs of slowing as global trade stagnated due to US-China trade friction. Together with the issue of the UK’s withdrawal from the EU and political uncertainty in Italy, this led to a further increase in uncertainty surrounding the European economy. In China, exports and investment both began to slow because of the prolonged US-China trade friction. Although stronger government economic measures suggested that the economy was bottoming out, personal consumption remained sluggish as consumers became more inclined to save.」

「During the first quarter of the fiscal year, the global economy was supported in the United States by employment and income conditions, and personal consumption remained firm. However, exports and investment declined amid US-China trade friction, and concerns over an economic slowdown began to spread. In Europe, the unemployment rate remained low, but uncertainty over trade friction and the course of the UK’s withdrawal from the EU increased further, strengthening the tendency to hold back on production and investment and causing the economy to slow. In China, despite the government implementing economic measures including large-scale tax cuts, declining exports caused by trade friction with the United States affected corporate production and adversely affected employment and investment, with the economy continuing to slow. In Japan, personal consumption and investment remained firm and supported the economy as employment and income improved, but uncertainty over the outlook intensified as prolonged US-China trade friction led to declining exports and growing concerns over a slowdown in overseas economies.」

「The European economy showed signs of slowing due to factors including declining exports and weak domestic demand, while uncertainty over the outlook increased because of difficulties in negotiations over the UK’s withdrawal from the EU. In China, the effects of escalating trade friction with the United States became apparent, and production and consumption remained at low levels. Although government economic measures provided some signs of recovery, the recovery lacked strength and the economy remained on a slowing trend.」

「In Europe, employment and income conditions improved, but the economy showed increasing signs of slowing due to risks to the outlook, including US-China trade friction and the UK’s withdrawal from the EU. In China, although government-led economic measures provided support, the economy began to slow as the impact of trade friction with the United States intensified and issues surrounding debt reduction by local governments and companies emerged. In Japan, personal consumption recovered as employment and income conditions improved, and domestic demand supported the economy. Capital investment also increased and the economy remained on a recovery trend, but concerns over a global slowdown stemming from intensifying US-China trade friction left the outlook uncertain.」

「In Europe, employment and income conditions continued to improve and capital investment remained firm, but the economy began to slow against a backdrop of heightened uncertainty surrounding trade issues with the United States and the UK’s withdrawal from the EU. In China, the economy was on a slowing trend, particularly among export companies, due to the impact of additional tariffs imposed by the United States, with some slowdown also seen in capital investment and employment.」