Growing Risk of Global Economic Disruption and Uncertainty Over the Economic Outlook

「Meanwhile, from August onward, concerns continued over the impact of natural disasters such as torrential rain on production, logistics and tourism. Downside risks to the economy also remained, including the situation in the Middle East, trends in crude oil and energy prices, and fluctuations in the financial and capital markets, leaving the outlook persistently uncertain.」

「Meanwhile, from August onward, concerns continued over the impact of natural disasters such as torrential rain on production, logistics and tourism. Downside risks to the economy also remained, including the situation in the Middle East, trends in crude oil and energy prices, and fluctuations in the financial and capital markets, leaving the outlook persistently uncertain.」

「Overseas economies experienced unstable conditions as uncertainty over trade policy and volatility in financial conditions persisted in major countries, tensions in the Middle East increased toward early 2026 and concerns about energy supplies intensified. In addition, the deepening of geoeconomic confrontation and the prolongation of regional conflicts led to increasingly cautious views of the global economic outlook.」

「Persistently high food and raw-material prices restrained personal consumption, while the external environment also deteriorated as the Trump administration's tariff policy, or the Trump tariffs, and the global economic slowdown accelerated, making the rise in uncertainty increasingly pronounced.」

「Although there were periods when the slowdown in personal consumption became more pronounced amid rapid yen depreciation and rising prices, the economy as a whole remained on a recovery track.」

「During the six-month period ended in the current fiscal year, the Japanese economy was weighed down from April 2024 by the rapid depreciation of the yen and higher cost burdens caused by persistently high raw-material prices and insufficient pass-through to selling prices. Personal consumption became notably sluggish, and the domestic economy deteriorated for 3 consecutive months through June. From July, however, robust inbound consumption, active event schedules and a sharp expansion in seasonal demand driven by extremely hot weather provided positive factors, and personal consumption-related spending turned upward during the summer vacation season.」

「Since April, in addition to the rapid depreciation of the yen, higher cost burdens caused by persistently high raw-material prices and insufficient pass-through to selling prices have weighed on the economy, while the slump in personal consumption has become pronounced. The economic outlook therefore remains uncertain.」

「On the other hand, global monetary tightening, a slowdown in overseas economies, particularly China, the yen's depreciation, persistently high energy costs and rising prices are encouraging consumers to economize and weighing on personal consumption. The economic outlook therefore remains uncertain.」

「On the other hand, global monetary tightening and downside risks to overseas economies, including China, remain risks, while high prices and yen depreciation continue. The economic outlook therefore remains uncertain.」

「On the other hand, concerns have emerged about the impact on personal consumption of surging global resource prices caused by the prolonged Ukraine crisis and the rapid depreciation of the yen. The economic outlook therefore remains uncertain.」

「In addition to surging global resource prices caused by the prolonged Ukraine crisis, concerns have emerged about the impact on personal consumption of rapid exchange-rate movements against a backdrop of monetary policy in Japan and the United States. The economic outlook therefore remains uncertain.」

「In addition to surging global resource prices caused by the prolonged Ukraine crisis, concerns have emerged about the impact on personal consumption of rapid exchange-rate movements against a backdrop of monetary policy in Japan and the United States. The economic outlook therefore remains uncertain.」

「The lifting of quasi-emergency measures in the Tokyo metropolitan area in mid-March provided some encouraging signs, including a move toward normalization of economic activity. However, new COVID-19 cases began increasing again from early July, while the prolonged Ukraine crisis led to surging global resource prices and the yen continued to depreciate rapidly against a backdrop of a widening interest-rate differential between Japan and the United States. The impact on personal consumption remained a concern, and conditions continued to be uncertain.」

「In addition to surging global energy prices resulting from heightened geopolitical risks caused by the Ukraine crisis, prices continued to rise as the yen depreciated rapidly against a backdrop of a widening interest-rate differential between Japan and the United States. The impact on personal consumption remained a concern, and conditions continued to be uncertain.」

「In addition to global instability triggered by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the economic outlook is expected to remain uncertain because of factors including the impact on personal consumption of surging crude oil prices and significant exchange-rate volatility.」

「At present, the number of people infected with a new variant that is causing resurgences around the world is also increasing sharply in Japan. Economic activity is therefore expected to remain uncertain and highly dependent on the infection situation.」

「On the other hand, the number of new infections peaked in late August, and the state of emergency was lifted at the end of September, leading to expectations of a gradual recovery in demand for leisure activities. However, the risk of a resurgence of infections ahead of winter requires continued monitoring.」

「The spread of COVID-19 variants led to a third declaration of a state of emergency in late April, and restrictions on operations at restaurants and large commercial facilities resulted in continued difficult conditions.」

「The Japanese economy during the nine-month period ended in the third quarter of the current fiscal year had some encouraging developments, including a decline in new COVID-19 cases from early August and progress toward vaccine approvals. However, uncertainty over the outlook has increased further as new infections have surged recently, prompting the government to declare another state of emergency covering the Tokyo metropolitan area from January.」

「Real GDP for the April-June quarter fell 28.1% on an annualized basis, and the economy entered a recessionary phase. While economic activity has gradually resumed since the state of emergency was lifted, new infections began increasing again from July, limiting the recovery in personal consumption and leaving the outlook uncertain.」

「In April, the government declared a state of emergency and requested that people refrain from nonessential outings, causing the domestic economy to contract rapidly. The economy is entering a recessionary phase.」

「In addition to the lack of strength in personal consumption following the consumption tax increase, concerns have emerged about a substantial slowdown in the domestic and global economies due to the worldwide spread of COVID-19, making the outlook even more uncertain.」

「During the nine-month period ended in the third quarter of the current fiscal year, the Japanese economy remained on a moderate recovery track as corporate earnings and employment conditions improved. However, personal consumption showed signs of weakness due to a series of natural disasters and the consumption tax increase scheduled for this autumn, requiring continued monitoring. In addition, uncertainty over the economic outlook has further intensified because of issues including trade friction between the United States and China and the United Kingdom's withdrawal from the EU.」

「Domestic personal consumption remains weak, and concerns have emerged about the impact of the consumption tax increase scheduled for this autumn on consumer sentiment. In addition, intensifying trade friction between the United States and China and the increasingly apparent slowdown in the Chinese economy have further heightened uncertainty over the outlook both in Japan and overseas.」

「In addition to weak domestic personal consumption, concerns about the impact of intensifying trade friction between the United States and China on the global economy, the increasingly apparent slowdown in the Chinese economy and the United Kingdom's withdrawal from the EU have further heightened uncertainty over the outlook both in Japan and overseas.」

「In addition to weak domestic personal consumption, concerns about trade friction arising from U.S. trade policy, the increasingly apparent slowdown in the Chinese economy and the United Kingdom's withdrawal from the EU have further heightened uncertainty over the outlook both in Japan and overseas.」

「However, concerns about trade friction with China arising from U.S. trade policy have increased, and financial market developments also require close monitoring. The economic outlook therefore remains uncertain.」

「However, concerns about intensifying trade friction resulting from the rise of protectionism have increased. In addition to higher electricity charges caused by surging crude oil prices, the closure for several days of major airports damaged by typhoons and earthquakes, as well as widespread power outages, may affect foreign visitors considering travel to Japan. The economic outlook therefore remains difficult to view optimistically.」

「However, concerns about escalating trade frictions resulting from the rise of protectionism and the increasingly apparent labor shortage caused by a declining young working-age population, together with continued consumer thrift, mean that the economy continues to lack sufficient strength to provide a clear outlook.」

「However, geopolitical risks in Northeast Asia have been rising, while personal consumption remains cautious. Major retailers selling food and daily necessities have had to remain cautious about passing higher selling, general and administrative expenses through to prices, and the economy continues to lack sufficient strength to provide a clear outlook.」

「However, geopolitical risks in Northeast Asia have been rising, while personal consumption remains cautious, with major retailers cutting prices for daily necessities. The economic outlook therefore remains uncertain.」

「However, concerns remain about geopolitical risks not only in Europe but also in Northeast Asia. In addition, domestic personal consumption lacks sufficient strength to drive prices higher, and the economic outlook remains uncertain.」

「However, concerns remain about a slowdown in emerging-market economies and future political developments in Europe and the United States. In addition, weak growth in domestic personal consumption has left the economic outlook uncertain.」

「However, concerns remain about a slowdown in emerging-market economies and future political developments in Europe and the United States. In addition, personal consumption is becoming increasingly price-sensitive, and the economic outlook remains uncertain.」

「In addition to the lack of strength in any country capable of driving the global economy and growing concerns about declining earnings at export companies as the yen appreciates, personal consumption appears to be increasingly price-sensitive, leaving the economic outlook uncertain.」

「Concerns about future political systems are emerging in the United States and Europe, and the risk of global economic disruption is rising. The economic outlook remains uncertain.」