Nomura Securities raised its year-end 2026 USD/JPY forecast to ¥152.5 against the backdrop of worsening conditions in the Middle East and higher crude oil prices. It said that if conditions in the Middle East stabilize and crude oil prices settle, USD/JPY could gradually move into the ¥150–155 range during the year.
Nomura Securities revised its foreign exchange forecasts generally in favor of a stronger US dollar and raised its year-end 2026 USD/JPY forecast to ¥152.5. Chief FX Strategist Goto Yujiro (後藤 祐二朗) said that, assuming conditions in the Middle East stabilize and crude oil prices remain steady, USD/JPY is likely to gradually move into the ¥150–155 range, against the backdrop of a resumption of Federal Reserve rate cuts and expectations for Bank of Japan rate hikes.
Although uncertainty surrounding the Middle East remains high, the outlook indicated that the US dollar is likely to remain firm in the short term. In the year-end 2026 comparison table of old and new forecasts, the figures were: June 2026, old ¥152.5 → new ¥157.5; September 2026, old ¥150 → new ¥155; December 2026, old ¥147.5 → new ¥152.5; and December 2027, old ¥140 → new ¥145.
The outlook also indicated that if conditions in the Middle East stabilize and crude oil prices settle, downward pressure on the US dollar is likely to strengthen again. The period of yen weakness and US dollar strength could continue due to the Japan-US interest-rate differential, Bank of Japan developments and the impact of higher crude oil prices, and there have been indications that attention should also be paid to intervention risks and the Bank of Japan’s hawkish stance. It also referred to the impact of WTI crude oil and energy imports on yen supply and demand when conditions in financial markets cause supply and demand to shift.
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