With the Bank of Japan expected to raise rates to 1.25% at its 18 September monetary policy meeting, Bitcoin is trading around $76,000, and attention is focused on the pace of future rate hikes and Governor Ueda's comments.
The Bank of Japan is expected to hold a monetary policy meeting on 17–18 September, with a 0.25-percentage-point rate hike already strongly priced in by the market. The current policy is to maintain the uncollateralized overnight call rate at around 1.0%, but a hike to 1.25% would take it above its highest level in 31 years. Concern over rising prices is a factor behind the move, with the domestic corporate goods price index up 7.6% year on year in August.
As of the morning of 17 September, Bitcoin was around $76,562.25 and largely flat, with no sharp decline following the Federal Reserve's rate hike observed at that point. Expectations of an additional BOJ rate hike could affect the market, but BTC's movement will not be determined by the rate decision alone, and the outlook and the content of future comments are considered important.
The unwinding of yen carry trades could affect the price movements of risk assets, including BTC. The yen rose approximately 4.5% in early September, and there have been instances in the past when BTC declined alongside yen appreciation after a BOJ rate hike. However, some analysts believe the market will not respond uniformly this time because multiple factors will be at work simultaneously.
At the 18 September meeting, the market will focus not only on a rate hike to 1.25%, but also on Governor Kazuo Ueda's (植田和男) outlook for the pace of future rate hikes and the content of his comments. His press conference is currently scheduled to begin at 15:30 on 18 September, and the gap between expectations and the actual outcome could significantly influence the market's reaction.