As expectations for a Bank of Japan rate hike in September strengthen and the yen appreciates, this article examines the movements in and key issues surrounding BTC prices in dollars and yen.
The Bank of Japan's next monetary policy meeting is expected to be held on 17–18 September, and the central bank has indicated that it intends to maintain its current operating target for the uncollateralized overnight call rate at around 1.0%. The market is increasingly expecting a 25-basis-point rate hike at the September meeting, which would bring the policy rate to 1.25%. Reuters reports that Aida Takuji (会田卓司), previously regarded as cautious on monetary policy, has suggested that additional rate hikes may be warranted, strengthening those expectations.
A September rate hike, however, has not been formally decided. Although reports and market commentary as of 7 September differ in the extent to which a hike is priced in, expectations for a rate increase have strengthened considerably. When the yen appreciates, BTC's yen-denominated price is more susceptible to movements in the dollar-yen exchange rate as well as changes in its dollar-denominated price.