Nikkei 225 futures are expected to move within the weekly +1σ to +2σ zone this week, while market participants monitor oil prices and long-term interest rates. Trading is expected to remain subdued.
Nikkei 225 futures are expected to track developments in the U.S. market this week. Following the previous week's moves, semiconductor and AI-related stocks such as Advantest are expected to lead the market at the start of the week, and Nikkei futures could move from the ¥69,150 level to the ¥71,000 level. A midweek correction accompanied by long-position unwinding is anticipated, while a move to recover the +1σ level again has also been observed toward the end of the week.
On a weekly basis, the zone between +1σ and +2σ is set at ¥68,250-70,250, and the view is that prices will move within this range as the consensus zone. At the same time, the widening of the daily bands and movements in the 25-day and 75-day moving averages have been cited as points to watch as risk indicators if prices break out of the zone.
In the U.S. market, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached record highs at times, while the broader market has been in wait-and-see mode ahead of developments in oil prices and long-term interest rates and upcoming earnings announcements. The performance of AI-related stocks and the earnings results of ASML and TSMC could affect the range of movement in Nikkei futures.
In Japan, market sentiment has been affected by the upcoming earnings announcements from retailers from the 13th onward and the market reaction to Fast Retailing's results the previous week. The Nikkei-to-Nasdaq ratio remained relatively high at 16.85x as of 9 October, and rebalancing trends could also affect the futures market.