Nikkei 225 futures are expected to spend this week digesting the central bank events, with trading driven by US interest rates and crude oil trends. While a technical rebound is expected temporarily after the events, the market is also expected to face conditions that make it difficult to pursue further gains.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy meeting are scheduled for this week, and rate-hike expectations are expected to be priced into the market. Last week, movements in US markets and a rise in the SOX index supported semiconductor and AI-related stocks, while the futures market shifted toward a predominance of long positions.
Crude oil prices rose temporarily to above $100 amid heightened tensions in the Middle East before falling sharply at times, and crude oil trends are expected to remain a key focus for investors. Buying aimed at relief after the BOJ and FOMC events have passed is likely, although this may be accompanied by position adjustments.
From a technical perspective, the market is expected to continue testing the upper boundary of the cloud while contending with the lower boundary. Whether the weekly price can rise above the 26-week moving average will mark a turning point for a rebound, while the NT ratio is attracting attention as a factor that could influence short-term trends. Attention is also warranted on overseas investors’ cash equity and futures activity, as well as trading related to the SQ settlement.