The Bank of Japan is widely expected to raise its policy rate to 1.25%, increasing the likelihood that it will reach its highest level in 31 years. The move is expected to affect capital flows through the yen exchange rate and also impact the crypto asset market, including Bitcoin.
The Bank of Japan is scheduled to announce the results of its monetary policy meeting on 18 September, followed by a press conference by Governor Ueda (植田) at 15:30 the same day. A hike from the current 1.00% to 1.25% is widely expected, making the governor's explanation at the press conference a key focus.
Markets have priced in the Bank of Japan's rate hike to the tune of roughly 80% to 90%. If implemented, the move could bring the policy rate to a level not seen in 31 years, since 1995. Rising oil prices and the risk of higher inflation driven by yen depreciation have been cited as the backdrop.
If rates are raised, the unwinding of yen carry trades could accelerate, potentially creating selling pressure across risk assets. If rates are left unchanged, the yen could weaken further, supporting a stronger dollar, while risk assets could also see renewed buying.
Around the announcement, attention is expected to focus on BTC/USDT price movements and whether certain resistance levels can be broken. Price action around $75,000 to $76,800 is expected to be a key area of focus.