The Nikkei and TSE markets are expected to trade in a range during the first week of October, with earnings announcements and interest-rate trends in focus. With earnings announcements from major retailers due, the market will also be watching AI-related stocks and long-term interest rates.
Japanese equities are expected to trade in a range during the first week of October. Firm sentiment in the economy, centered on manufacturing, and solid corporate earnings will provide support, while higher oil prices and rising long-term interest rates will leave uncertainty. A lack of market catalysts has also been cited ahead of the full-scale start of earnings announcements.
Domestically, major retailers including Fast Retailing and Seven & i Holdings are scheduled to announce earnings on 8 October. As higher prices have weakened the strength of domestic consumption, attention will focus on the companies’ earnings and underlying assumptions in their outlooks.
AI-related stocks, which showed stronger signs of adjustment from July to September, are beginning to move. There is a view that reports that U.S. company Anthropic is targeting an IPO around mid-November could improve investor sentiment.
The market will also focus on rising long-term interest rates, signs of credit concerns, developments in U.S. and French debt and credit markets, and the outlook for oil prices. The U.S. ISM Services PMI and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index are scheduled for release.
In the fifth week of September, the TOPIX fell 0.9% from the previous week, while the Nikkei 225 rose 2.9%, mainly on movements in heavily weighted stocks.