At its June monetary policy meeting, the Bank of Japan raised the policy rate by 0.25 percentage points to 1.0%. Nomura Securities presented December as the base case for the next rate hike, with October as the risk scenario.
At its June policy meeting, the Bank of Japan raised the policy rate by 0.25 percentage points from around 1.0%, bringing the target level to around 1.0%. The decision passed by a 7–1 majority, with board member Asada Toichiro (浅田 統一郎) dissenting. Governor Ueda Kazuo (植田 和男) was absent.
The risk assessment in the statement changed. Downside risks to the economy had declined from their previous level, while the wording continued to signal caution over upside risks to inflation remaining on a 2% trend. The statement that real interest rates were at an "extremely low level" was removed, and the accommodative nature of financial conditions was emphasized.
Following the decision, Nomura Securities set its base-case scenario as rate hikes in December 2026 and June 2027, while assuming October 2026, March–April 2027 and September–October 2027 as new risk scenarios.