Goldman Sachs presented its outlook for the global economy in 2027. Global GDP is expected to edge up to 2.8%, while AI capital investment is projected to reach $1.8 trillion, although the three major risks could weigh on growth.
In its latest macroeconomic outlook for 2027, Goldman Sachs forecast that global economic growth would edge up from 2.7% in 2026 to 2.8%. On the assumption that growth will run slightly above its potential rate, normalized energy prices and robust AI investment will provide the two main pillars of growth, while tighter financial conditions and the declining impact of fiscal stimulus will act as offsets. The overall picture is expected to remain firm, although growth will become more uneven.
AI investment remains important as the biggest driver of the global economy, with nominal investment estimated to surge from $1.1 trillion in 2026 to $1.8 trillion in 2027. Growth will be led in particular by increased US hardware spending, with AI investment expected to contribute approximately 0.4 percentage point to global GDP growth. Normalization in energy markets was also cited as a factor supporting the growth outlook.
Growth forecasts for the world's major economies point to divergence, at 2.4% for the United States, 0.9% for Europe and 4.5% for China. The divergence from market consensus varies by region, with the United States viewed as relatively optimistic and Europe as conservative. Japan is expected to post exceptionally strong growth among the factors affecting fiscal and financial conditions, with expanded fiscal spending and defense investment projected to boost growth.
The three major risks are crude oil prices, bond-market volatility and a peak in the AI investment cycle. While crude oil prices are moving toward stabilization, a renewed escalation in the situation with Iran and effects on shipping and infrastructure could push prices higher. Greater bond-market volatility could constrain GDP through housing, durable goods and corporate investment. A slowdown in AI investment momentum was also cited as a factor raising concerns about excessive investment in the market.