Asakura Kei (朝倉 慶) said that toward the end of 2026, a weaker yen, higher stock prices and higher interest rates could advance simultaneously, with the Nikkei potentially rising above ¥80,000 and dollar-yen moving to around ¥160. Asakura Kei (朝倉 慶) also said that expanded AI investment could push up long-term interest rates.
The yen has begun weakening again, while long-term interest rates in Japan continue to rise. Japanese stocks remain near their highs, with the weaker yen, higher interest rates and higher stock prices advancing simultaneously. Asakura Kei (朝倉 慶) said that the yen's current weakness cannot be explained solely by past speculation and that structural selling pressure on the yen, including real-demand flows, is behind it.
Currency intervention could bring temporary yen appreciation, but the long-term depreciation trend is unlikely to change unless the underlying factors behind the weaker yen change. The timing of additional Bank of Japan rate hikes and the impact of fiscal policy are expected to be the focus going forward.
The strength of Japanese stocks is attributed to growth in corporate profits exceeding the rise in interest rates, with profit growth among AI and semiconductor-related companies cited as a particular factor supporting share prices. The boost to exporters' earnings from the weaker yen is also providing support.
Dollar-yen is expected to stagnate or rise at around ¥160, with risks toward ¥170 also noted in some cases. The Nikkei is targeted at around ¥83,000 at the end of 2026, with the combination of expanding profits at AI-related companies and a weaker yen cited as the driving factor.