The Nikkei 225 recovered to ¥70,156, returning to the ¥70,000 range. An analysis identified 4 drivers that will determine the next move toward a new record high: semiconductor stocks, yen depreciation, gains in US stocks and domestic funds.
The Nikkei 225 rose to ¥70,156 as of 10:35 on 6 October 2026. Its high was ¥72,831 on 22 June 2026 during trading hours, putting it within approximately 3.8% of the previous record high. During the summer correction, it fell to ¥61,434, but recovered to the ¥70,000 range in approximately 45 trading days. The market is now consolidating its downside and testing higher levels again.
The 4 major drivers supporting the current rise are renewed acceleration in major semiconductor and AI-related stocks; improved earnings at exporters and the yen-conversion effect on overseas profits resulting from the yen’s depreciation trend; firm Nasdaq and SOX indices and stable US long-term interest rates; and domestic share buybacks and improvements in capital efficiency. If these factors persist, they are expected to support further gains in the Nikkei 225.
An explanation of the market states that a clear break above the record high could eliminate selling at previous high levels and lead to a “limitless market.” A breakout is said to encourage trend-following funds to enter and trigger short-covering purchases, accelerating the rise. The high contribution of major stocks was also cited as a factor that could widen price movements.
Key issues going forward include whether the Nikkei 225 can establish itself above ¥70,000, whether momentum in major semiconductor and AI-related stocks can be maintained, whether the Nasdaq and SOX can remain firm, avoiding a sharp rise in US long-term interest rates, and receding risk of yen appreciation. Breaking the previous record high of ¥72,831 is viewed as the biggest hurdle, while a breakout and trading volume in major stocks are expected to be key factors.