The composite expected inflation rate indicator for July–September 2026 was published at +1.91%, with the rate of increase slowing from +2.01% in the previous period. The estimate forms part of the Bank of Japan’s approach to measuring underlying inflation.
An estimate was presented for a composite expected inflation rate indicator integrating the expectations of households, companies and experts, based on sources including the survey on household perceptions of living conditions released yesterday. The indicator stood at +1.91% for July–September 2026, with the rate of increase slowing from +2.01% in the previous period. Although the estimate exceeded 2% at times in the previous period, it has not reached a point where it is accelerating further beyond that level.
The indicator is considered one component of the underlying inflation measures described by the Bank of Japan and corresponds to approach ②, which captures medium- to long-term inflation expectations. Of the three approaches presented by the BOJ, the author considers the estimate in this article to correspond to ②.
The author states that the current moderation could give the BOJ a “reason not to rush.” The article discusses the potential impact on the BOJ’s future conduct of monetary policy, but does not include investment recommendations or forecasts for stock price movements.