An analysis of Japan's inflation based on the latest 2026 data. The key factors affecting prices in 10 years, including the BOJ's survey results, national CPI trends, wages, the yen and commodity prices, are summarized.
The results of the latest survey conducted by the Bank of Japan in September 2026 showed that 88.6% of respondents expected prices to rise in 1 year, rising to 86.5% for 5 years. While concern about short-term price increases has eased somewhat, the results showed that many respondents expect prices to rise over the medium to long term.
National CPI rose 1.9% year on year in August on a headline basis, 1.7% excluding fresh food and 1.9% excluding fresh food and energy. In Tokyo's 23 wards, the September index excluding fresh food rose 2.7% year on year, highlighting regional differences.
The BOJ has set a 2% price stability target. In its Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices, the long-term forecast is 2.5–3.0% for FY2026, 2.0–2.5% for FY2027 and approximately 2% for FY2028. These are not 10-year forecasts, but they are attracting attention as indicators that could influence medium- to long-term price trends.
The main factors behind price increases include continued wage growth, higher import costs resulting from yen depreciation, trends in crude oil and commodity prices, and changes in demographics and productivity. While wage growth continues, yen depreciation could push up the cost of imported goods.