William Blair maintained its Outperform ratings on Coinbase and Circle, citing the reshaping of the regulatory environment and the expansion of their business portfolios. It said further upside remains despite the share-price gains.
In its latest report, U.S. investment bank William Blair rated Coinbase (COIN) and Circle (CRCL) Outperform, citing the reshaping of the regulatory environment and the expansion of their business portfolios in assessing their current share prices. Coinbase shares have risen 31% since 14 July, and the current level is considered an attractive entry point despite weak spot trading volumes.
On regulation, processing delays for the CLARITY Act are continuing, but regulatory development centered on the SEC and CFTC is expected to accelerate. The report also identified the SEC’s recent exemptions for tokenized equity trading as a factor supporting investor sentiment. In the near-term earnings outlook, Coinbase’s 2026 EBITDA forecast was cut 11% from the previous estimate, while the outlooks for 2027 and 2028 were broadly maintained.
Potential future growth drivers include a rise in the price of Bitcoin, expansion of crypto-backed lending, and growth in the tokenization market for real-world assets (RWA). The RWA market is said to have expanded from approximately $260 billion at the end of last year to $390 billion recently. Coinbase is reducing its reliance on spot trading by expanding into derivatives for institutional and retail customers and prediction markets, securing new sources of revenue. Annualized first-quarter revenue from retail derivatives was approximately $200 million, while the prediction-market business reached approximately $100 million based on the second quarter. Combined revenue from the two businesses accounts for approximately 6% of this year’s total forecast.
These new businesses are considered less correlated with spot trading volumes, contributing to greater stability in the revenue structure. For Circle, the report said that growth in USDC circulation would be the main driver of its share price, and analyzed the possibility that its impact would follow an expansion in USDC’s market capitalization as Bitcoin rises. The threat from competing stablecoins is viewed as limited, while regulatory risk itself is expected to ease temporarily.