Following the September Tankan results, companies are expected to revise up their FY2026 sales and ordinary profit plans, with expanding demand related to generative AI cited as the main driver of higher earnings. Foreign-exchange assumptions and the recovery in inbound tourism are also key areas of focus.
Following publication of the September Tankan, upward revisions to FY2026 earnings plans are expected in results announcements for the July-September quarter from late October onward. Overall, both sales and ordinary profit improved from the previous survey, pointing to an upward revision toward higher sales and profit for FY2026 as a whole.
Electrical machinery, nonferrous metals and general-purpose machinery are cited as industries where upward sales revisions are particularly notable, reflecting expanding global demand for generative AI, the benefits of the weaker yen and stronger DX investment. Information services, accommodation and food services are also benefiting from increased DX projects, strong inbound demand and the established practice of passing through higher costs in prices.
Electrical machinery, textiles, iron and steel, shipbuilding, heavy machinery and business services are cited as industries expected to make substantial upward revisions to ordinary profit. Overseas demand, a higher proportion of high-value-added products and improved margins following price increases are expected to drive profit. In nonmanufacturing, higher service prices are said to be lifting profit margins.
The foreign-exchange assumptions are ¥153.9 to the dollar and ¥177.9 to the euro. While some companies, including exporters such as transport equipment makers, are using assumptions skewed toward a stronger yen, there is also a view that a weaker yen can be advantageous in some circumstances. Further earnings revisions may occur depending on exchange-rate movements.