Against the backdrop of this week's US economic indicators and the performance of AI-related stocks, expectations are spreading that selling into rallies will prevail in Nikkei 225 futures, putting downside risks for major stocks in focus. Sources of uncertainty in global markets are also affecting the futures market.
Nikkei 225 futures are expected to remain dominated by short positions this week, with a gap-down opening seen as a possibility after the weekend. The backdrop is that the US CPI and PPI released the previous week exceeded market expectations, bringing into focus additional rate hikes by the Federal Reserve as accelerating inflation persists.
As concerns spread over rising funding costs for semiconductor and AI-related stocks, turmoil in cloud-related stocks has spilled over into the broader market. Selling in stocks such as Micron Technology prompted a decline across semiconductor stocks, while in Japan, related names including Kioxia saw particularly notable declines.
In the US market, major indicators including the SOX index declined. Although Nikkei 225 futures attempted a technical rebound during daytime trading on the 16th, selling pressure strengthened again. As a result, the futures market led declines in Advantest, Tokyo Electron, SoftBank Group and other stocks.
With earnings announcements entering full swing, earnings releases from multiple domestic and overseas companies are considered likely to become market triggers. With the US midterm elections approaching, semiconductor and AI-related stocks may be prone to position-adjustment selling, and some market participants are urging caution over rebalancing activity.