The Bank of Japan is scheduled to announce the October meeting results around midday on the 30th. The focus will be on whether revisions to the inflation outlook in the Outlook Report and Governor Ueda's press conference lay the groundwork for a December rate hike.
The Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy Meeting will be held on 29–30 October 2026, with the results expected to be announced around midday on the 30th. The Outlook Report and the Summary of Opinions will also be released at the same time, and Governor Kazuo Ueda's (植田 和男) press conference is scheduled for 15:30. Most market participants expect the policy rate to remain unchanged at 1.25%; the market is pricing in an approximately 2% probability of an October hike and a probability in the mid-70% range of a hike at the December meeting.
The focus has shifted to whether the Outlook Report and the press conference will lay the groundwork for a “December rate hike.” Key points include an upward revision to the fiscal 2027 inflation outlook against a backdrop of higher crude oil prices and the assessment of whether underlying inflation has reached 2%. US developments, including the FOMC decision, are expected to continue influencing markets before and after the announcement, leaving the market waiting for the BOJ's assessment.
At the previous meeting in September, the BOJ decided to raise the policy rate by 0.25% to 1.25%, with 7 votes in favor and 2 opposed. Committee members were divided over the inflation outlook, but Governor Ueda (植田 和男) said at the press conference that “the policy phase has changed,” indicating that the timing of further rate hikes and future policy would depend on price developments.
In market trading, dollar-yen was moving in the mid-¥157 range. Depending on the inflation outlook in the Outlook Report, the split vote and the content of the press conference, the initial market move is expected to indicate whether expectations of a December rate hike strengthen or recede. Sharp movements during the midday break are anticipated when the results are released, and some market participants are warning of a two-stage reaction.
The schedule immediately before the meeting includes the US FOMC decision, the release of US GDP and PCE data, and Tokyo-area CPI. Until the BOJ results are announced, developments in Japan and the United States are expected to continue determining the market's upside and downside.