Next Week’s Nikkei Average Outlook (10/5–10/9): Is 70,000 Within Sight? Focus on Governor Ueda’s Remarks and Rising Global Interest Rates [2 October 2026]

This article on the Nikkei Average outlook for 5–9 October assumes a range of ¥66,000–¥70,000 next week, with the index maintaining the ¥67,000 range, against the backdrop of the previous week’s closing level of ¥68,309 after a sharp decline. While the impact of globally rising interest rates is expected to weigh on the market, it also points to the possibility that trends in US technology stocks and expanding demand related to AI could provide a buying incentive for Japanese stocks.

Domestic factors include remarks by BOJ Governor Ueda Kazuo (植田 和男) on the 6th, which will be the focus, and the possibility that rising CPI in Tokyo’s 23 wards will inform future rate-hike decisions. As core CPI continues to rise year on year, how the market prices in the possibility of further rate hikes is likely to affect the market’s short-term direction.

Globally, US long-term yields and French fiscal concerns are cited as risk factors. The US 10-year Treasury yield rose as high as 5.34%, while the French 10-year yield rose to around 4.9% and the yield spread with Germany widened amid continued upward pressure on rates in Europe. Fading expectations for Fed rate hikes could support stock prices, while persistently high long-term yields could also push prices lower.

Technically, the Nikkei Average CFD has recovered to mid-September levels. The market is expected to treat around ¥69,000 as the first resistance level and ¥70,000 as a psychological threshold. The three key factors to watch next week are Governor Ueda’s remarks, US long-term yields and French fiscal concerns, all of which could influence the Nikkei Average’s direction.