What is the Nikkei Average’s expected range next week (9/28–10/2)? ¥65,000–¥68,000, with attention on key indicators including the US employment report on 10/2 and whether the index can break above its 75-day moving average

The Nikkei Average rose this week as investors welcomed buying in US AI and semiconductor-related stocks, with the index closing at ¥66,364.20. Trading was limited during the holiday period, but the Nikkei advanced in response to developments in US markets. Gains were capped at times toward the end of the week amid speculation that investors wanted to assess the outcome of a US-China summit.

The expected range for next week is ¥65,000–¥68,000. With US PCE data due at the end of September, the ISM Manufacturing Index on 1 October, and the employment report on 2 October, as well as Micron’s earnings release, the market is expected to remain in a wait-and-see mood. Attention will also focus on long-term interest-rate trends and the summary of the Bank of Japan’s policy decision.

Whether the Nikkei can clearly break above its 75-day moving average is expected to be a key issue, and confirmation of a breakout could prompt short covering. At the same time, some market participants want to avoid a situation in which rising interest rates are viewed excessively negatively, suggesting a stance of buying on dips. Attention is also turning to how bank stocks respond to movements in long-term interest rates.

The top five gainers this week were akippa, データセクション, 原田工業, リベルタ and サンメッセ, while the top five decliners were アドバンスクリエイト, ビーマップ, クボテック, コパ・コーポレーション and ベビーカレンダー. The most actively traded stocks by volume were ランド, NTT, オンコセラピー・サイエンス, ソフトバンク and ソフトバンクグループ.

Key events next week include the release of US PCE data, the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index and the employment report, Micron’s earnings release, the minutes of the Bank of Japan’s Monetary Policy Meeting, and the BOJ Tankan survey. Market reactions could diverge depending on the results of these indicators.