In a video on the Maneiku Channel, Asakura Kei (朝倉 慶) forecasts the dollar-yen rate at around ¥160 at the end of 2026, while Musha Ryoji (武者 陵司) expects it to stabilize at ¥150–¥160 in 2027. Structural factors beyond the Japan-U.S. interest-rate differential are expected to determine the yen's trajectory.
Asakura Kei (朝倉 慶) says the yen's current weakness cannot be explained solely by overseas speculators selling the yen, and that Japan's fiscal and monetary policies and structural pressure to sell the yen are behind it. Low real interest rates are contributing to the yen's weakness, and he predicts that pressure on the yen could remain strong even if the Bank of Japan continues raising interest rates. His view is that the dollar-yen rate could move toward around ¥160 by the end of 2026.
Musha Ryoji (武者 陵司) argues that ¥160 could become the ceiling for the yen's decline, taking into account the narrowing Japan-U.S. interest-rate differential and the yen's undervaluation. He expects the dollar-yen rate to stabilize at around ¥150–¥160 in 2027, and is watching the return of domestic funds and long-term interest-rate trends as factors that could curb excessive yen weakness.
Asakura (朝倉) regards the effects of currency-market intervention as temporary, while believing that Bank of Japan rate hikes will not necessarily halt the yen's decline completely. He explains that the real interest-rate differential and structural factors underpin pressure on the yen.
Musha (武者) points out that rising long-term interest rates in Japan could support the yen. He says that if domestic institutional investors shift their asset allocations from overseas to Japan, buying pressure on the yen could strengthen.