Nomura Securities has revised its outlook upward, projecting total dividends of ¥31.6 trillion and share buybacks of ¥24.0 trillion for FY2026. Total shareholder returns are expected to reach ¥55.6 trillion, while dividend increases stood out in earnings announcements for the April-June quarter, according to the report.
Nomura Securities has revised its top-down forecast upward, projecting that total dividends paid by Japanese companies in FY2026 will rise 20.3% year on year to ¥31.6 trillion, total share buybacks will increase 27.3% to ¥24.0 trillion, and total shareholder returns will rise 23.3% to ¥55.6 trillion. Taking into account results and announcements through August, the payout ratio is expected to be 38.9% and the total payout ratio 68.5%. Dividend increases are expected to continue in line with earnings growth from FY2027 onward, while share buybacks are expected to decline slightly while remaining at a high level.
Dividend increase announcements stood out in earnings releases for the April-June quarter, and the median forecast payout ratio for TOPIX constituents is expected to exceed 40%, with the proportion of companies in the 40%-45% range projected to increase. Share buyback announcements also followed one after another, reaching ¥20.6 trillion since the beginning of 2026 and ¥12.9 trillion since the beginning of FY2026. The analysis attributes this to pressure to return capital to shareholders and the surplus capacity on companies' balance sheets.