Ordinary profit in the second quarter of fiscal 2026 is expected to decline 5% year on year. Stocks with upward revisions were identified in sectors including electrical equipment, securities, insurance, railways, telecommunications and services, and revision trends for the second and third quarters of fiscal 2026 are presented.
According to Nomura Securities research, quarterly consensus estimates for the second quarter of fiscal 2026 were compiled for 571 companies, with ordinary profit expected to decline 5% year on year. A substantial reactive decline in information and communications compared with the previous year is expected to have a significant impact, while electrical equipment, other financials, non-ferrous metals and marine transportation are expected to contribute to profit growth.
AI- and semiconductor-related companies are expected to post substantial upward earnings surprises during the period. By sector, electrical equipment, non-ferrous metals, precision instruments and real estate are expected to record high profit growth rates, while information and communications, banking, insurance, and pulp and paper are expected to see larger profit declines.
After the first-quarter results, consensus estimates for the second quarter declined slightly, but full-year forecasts have continued to trend upward. TOPIX EPS is expected to rise approximately 19.2% year on year, while second-quarter earnings are expected to finish approximately 10% to 15% higher.
The revision index is said to show a seasonal tendency to slow around the end of October before rising again. Stock indices for electrical equipment, non-ferrous metals, and information and communications have remained firm since September, while transportation equipment, mining, and fisheries, agriculture and forestry are viewed as weak.