Nomura Securities raised its year-end 2026 USD/JPY forecast to ¥152.5. It provides details on the outlook against a backdrop of worsening conditions in the Middle East and higher crude oil prices pushing up the US dollar.
Against a backdrop of worsening conditions in the Middle East and higher crude oil prices, Nomura Securities raised its year-end 2026 USD/JPY forecast to ¥152.5. The US dollar is expected to remain broadly strong as the effects of the attacks continue, while developments including the resumption of Fed rate cuts and a shift away from the US dollar were presented as central scenarios for the foreign exchange market.
After the United States and Israel attacked Iran in late February 2026, the market moved in response to developments in the Middle East and crude oil prices. The US dollar temporarily rose into the ¥160 range, and the forecast indicated a broad upward revision for the US dollar in April. The forecast table as of June 2026 shows a previous value of ¥147.5 and a new value of ¥152.5.
While worsening conditions in the Middle East and higher crude oil prices are factors driving yen depreciation, the possibility of an earlier-than-expected Bank of Japan rate hike and intervention risks were also cited as factors limiting movements in the yen. The outlook presented was that the Bank of Japan's policy and the actions of major overseas central banks will affect future USD/JPY movements.
If the Middle East situation stabilizes, USD/JPY is considered likely to gradually return to ¥150–155, while supply and demand conditions for crude oil, including WTI, are expected to determine the direction of the yen. If crude oil prices remain uncertain, upside risk toward the ¥160 range is expected to persist.