The outlook focuses on the RBA minutes, Australian wage and employment data, South African CPI and the SARB MPC as factors that will determine the direction of AUD/ZAR next week.
The Australian dollar is expected to remain sluggish on rebounds next week as domestic events unfold. The RBA minutes will be released on the 17th, followed by the wage index on the 18th and employment data on the 19th. Given that the policy rate was raised to 4.85% at the previous board meeting, some members voted to keep it unchanged, and certain wording in the statement was handled in a particular way, the market is focused on whether expectations for another rate hike will resurface.
The ZAR is expected to see volatile trading ahead of the October CPI release on the 18th and the SARB MPC meeting on the 19th. At the previous MPC meeting, the policy rate was raised to 7.25%, and the governor indicated that the current policy approach could return inflation to its target after the initial shock from the Middle East conflict. However, October CPI accelerated to 4.5% year on year. If a further acceleration in CPI is confirmed, expectations for the policy rate to remain unchanged are likely to come under significant pressure.