Uncertainty Surrounding Economic Recovery, Falling Stock Prices, Yen Appreciation and Stagnant Personal Consumption

「During the fiscal year, the Japanese economy had been showing a gradual recovery trend, but global conditions became extremely unstable in the second half of the year, raising serious concerns about the stable supply of energy. This further accelerated price increases, restrained real wage growth and prevented consumption from achieving a full recovery.」

「During the six-month interim accounting period, the employment and income environment showed a gradual recovery, but high energy and material prices continued, keeping business costs elevated. Prices of essential goods, particularly food, also continued to rise, heightening consumers' defensive attitude toward their household finances and weakening consumer sentiment. In addition, conditions remained unstable due to developments in U.S. trade policy and frequent conflicts around the world, increasing downside risks to the economy and leaving the outlook uncertain.」

「During the six-month interim accounting period, personal consumption in Japan showed a gradual recovery, although some stagnation was evident, as inbound demand recovered to pre-COVID levels and the movement of people became more active both domestically and internationally. Meanwhile, the outlook remained uncertain due to persistent inflation concerns, including a series of major natural disasters on the Noto Peninsula, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, worsening conditions in the Middle East and soaring rice prices.」

「During the three months ended June 30, consumption and investment remained sluggish as real wages declined due to high prices. In addition, as the yen weakened and the trend toward higher interest rates strengthened, personal consumption, which had previously been recovering gradually, showed signs of stagnation. Meanwhile, although temporary income tax, resident tax and other tax cuts implemented in June 2024 as a measure to ease the burden on households are expected to stimulate consumption while wage increases remained below price increases, their effects are expected to be limited.」

「During the nine months ended December 31, the economy remained on a gradual recovery trend, although some signs of stagnation were evident. Looking ahead, although corporate earnings remained relatively strong, this was not reflected in increased investment or wages, and consumption and investment activity lacked strength. In addition, rising consumer prices caused by soaring energy and raw material costs and the increased burden of social security costs leave the outlook uncertain.」

「During the six months ended September 30, restrictions under the Infectious Diseases Control Law were eased, and although vigilance over infectious diseases continued, daily life gradually returned to normal and the economy began a gradual recovery. Looking ahead, while the employment and income environment is improving, real wages continue to decline due to rising consumer prices caused by soaring energy and raw material costs, as well as the increased burden of social security costs, leaving the outlook uncertain.」

「During the three months ended June 30, restrictions under the Infectious Diseases Control Law were eased, and as economic and social activity gradually returned to normal, inbound demand increased and the recovery in human mobility led to signs of a modest recovery. Meanwhile, high prices caused by soaring energy and raw material costs and continued labor shortages on the supply side left the outlook uncertain.」

「Meanwhile, in addition to downside risks in overseas economies against the backdrop of global monetary tightening, the effects of rising prices, supply constraints and volatility in the financial and capital markets mean that uncertainty is expected to continue.」

「During the nine months ended December 31, the Japanese economy remained on a gradual recovery trend as the government pursued its living-with-COVID policy, aimed at balancing the prevention of the spread of infection with economic and social activity, supported by the effects of various government measures. Meanwhile, in addition to downside risks in overseas economies against the backdrop of global monetary tightening, rising prices, supply constraints and heightened geopolitical risks leave the outlook uncertain.」

「During the six months ended September 30, Japan recorded its highest-ever number of COVID-19 cases with the arrival of the seventh wave. However, the economy remained on a gradual recovery trend, as personal consumption recovered partly due to the effects of various government policies and the easing of restrictions on activities. Meanwhile, a slowdown in the recovery of overseas economies against the backdrop of global monetary tightening, rising prices and supply constraints pose downside risks to the economy, and the outlook remains uncertain.」

「During the three months ended June 30, the severe situation caused by COVID-19 eased, and signs of recovery emerged as economic and social activity moved toward normalization. However, as concerns mounted over the impact of international developments, including the renewed spread of infections in China and the prolonged crisis in Ukraine, on the domestic and global economies, downside risks to the economy remained due to supply constraints, rising raw material prices and volatility in the financial and capital markets, leaving the outlook uncertain.」

「During the fiscal year, the Japanese economy remained in an unstable business environment as the effects of the spread of COVID-19, which began the previous year, persisted, suppressing economic activity amid repeated states of emergency and the application of priority preventive measures. As nationwide vaccinations progressed and the spread of infections temporarily peaked, economic and social activity moved toward temporary normalization. However, various downside risks to the economy remained, including soaring resource prices resulting from geopolitical risks such as the worsening situation in Ukraine, in addition to the renewed spread of infections caused by new variants, leaving the outlook uncertain.」

「During the nine months ended September 30, the Japanese economy remained in a difficult situation due to the effects of COVID-19. However, as the nationwide vaccination rollout progressed, the number of cases began to decline from September, and the state of emergency and priority preventive measures were lifted nationwide in October, with signs emerging of a return to normal economic and social activity. Nevertheless, uncertainty continues due to concerns about breakthrough infections following vaccination and the spread of infections driven primarily by new variants in some overseas regions.」

「During the six months ended June 30, the Japanese economy remained subject to restrictions on economic activity, including the repeated issuance of states of emergency and the expansion of areas covered by priority preventive measures, due to the global spread of COVID-19. Meanwhile, although economic recovery is expected as COVID-19 vaccinations got fully underway, supported by the effects of various government policies and improvements in the economies of countries where vaccinations were further advanced, the timing of the containment of infections remains unforeseeable and the outlook continues to be uncertain.」

「During the cumulative first quarter of the consolidated fiscal year, Japan's economy remained in an extremely difficult situation as the spread of the novel coronavirus infection, which had continued since the previous year, had yet to be contained. From April 2021, the government issued Priority Preventive Measures and a third state of emergency in some regions, substantially restricting socioeconomic activity depending on the industry and region. Globally, infections with variants of the virus continued to spread, and the number of cases involving new variants also increased in Japan, further heightening downside risks to the economy and leaving the outlook uncertain.」

「During the consolidated fiscal year, Japan's economy remained in a difficult situation due to the effects of the novel coronavirus infection, but showed signs of recovery as economic activity resumed in stages. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the outlook persisted because the timing of the containment of the infection in Japan and overseas remained unforeseeable.」

「During the cumulative third quarter of the consolidated fiscal year, corporate activity and personal consumption contracted significantly as the global spread of the novel coronavirus infection and the full-scale implementation of preventive measures, including requests for businesses to suspend operations and for people to refrain from going out, brought the economy into a period of rapid decline. Although economic activity subsequently began to resume gradually, infections believed to represent a third wave emerged, with no sign of containment, and the difficult outlook is expected to continue.」

「During the cumulative second quarter of the consolidated fiscal year, Japan's economy was severely affected by restrictions on economic and social activity resulting from the spread of the novel coronavirus infection, requests for businesses to suspend operations and for people to refrain from going out, and other preventive measures. Economic conditions deteriorated rapidly, as seen in stagnant corporate activity and declining personal consumption. The global economy was similarly severely affected, and a substantial economic downturn on the scale of the period following the Lehman shock appeared unavoidable, causing the sense of crisis to intensify rapidly.」

「During the cumulative first quarter of the consolidated fiscal year, Japan's economy deteriorated rapidly as the spread of the novel coronavirus infection and measures to prevent it severely restricted economic and social activity. The global economy was similarly severely affected, and a substantial economic downturn on the scale of the period following the Lehman shock appeared unavoidable, causing the sense of crisis to intensify rapidly.」

「However, the economic outlook remains unpredictable as domestic consumption continues to slow following the consumption tax rate increase, overseas political conditions and trade issues remain unstable, and the novel coronavirus infection that emerged in a neighboring country has spread worldwide.」

「During the cumulative third quarter, Japan's economy continued to benefit from solid corporate earnings and improving employment conditions. However, in addition to trade issues between major powers and intensifying tensions with neighboring countries, concern arose over personal consumption following the decline in front-loaded demand associated with the consumption tax rate increase, leaving the economic outlook uncertain.」

「During the cumulative second quarter, Japan's economy continued to recover gradually against the backdrop of solid corporate earnings and improving employment conditions. However, tensions with neighboring countries intensified in addition to trade issues between major powers, while concern grew domestically that the consumption tax rate increase would slow consumption, leaving the outlook uncertain.」

「During the cumulative first quarter, Japan's economy continued to recover gradually as corporate earnings remained solid and employment conditions improved. However, as friction intensified over the renegotiation of trade terms between major powers, the global economy became increasingly unsettled, while concern grew domestically that the consumption tax rate increase would worsen economic conditions, leaving the outlook uncertain.」

「During the fiscal year, Japan's economy continued to recover gradually as corporate earnings remained solid and employment conditions improved. However, the economic outlook remained uncertain as Japan continued to face a chronic labor shortage and trade friction between major powers remained unresolved overseas.」

「During the cumulative third quarter, Japan's economy continued to recover gradually as corporate earnings remained solid and employment conditions improved. However, overseas, trade friction between major powers had intensified due to rising protectionism, raising concern over an economic downturn. In addition, the economic outlook remained uncertain because of reconstruction following natural disasters and the chronic labor shortage.」

「During the cumulative second quarter, Japan's economy continued to recover gradually as corporate earnings remained solid and employment conditions improved. However, overseas, concern grew that protectionism would intensify trade friction over the renegotiation of trade terms between major powers. In addition, the impact of a series of severe natural disasters in early September left the economic outlook uncertain.」

「During the cumulative first quarter, Japan's economy continued to recover gradually as corporate earnings remained solid and employment conditions improved. However, overseas, concern grew that protectionism would intensify trade friction over the renegotiation of trade terms, leaving the economic outlook uncertain.」

「During the fiscal year, Japan's economy remained on a gradual recovery track as employment conditions continued to improve against the backdrop of solid corporate earnings, although some areas lagged behind. However, geopolitical risks in East Asia, the Middle East and other regions meant that conditions remained such that continued caution was required.」

「During the cumulative third quarter, Japan's economy showed signs of a gradual recovery as employment and income conditions improved, but the recovery in personal consumption lacked strength and the economic recovery remained stalled.」

「During the cumulative second quarter, Japan's economy showed signs of a gradual recovery as employment and income conditions improved, but personal consumption remained sluggish and the economic recovery stalled. Concern also increased over unstable developments in neighboring countries, leaving the outlook uncertain.」

「During the cumulative first quarter, Japan's economy remained on a gradual recovery track as corporate earnings and employment conditions improved, but concern increased that changes in political trends in Europe and the United States could affect Japan's economy, leaving the outlook uncertain.」

「During the fiscal year, Japan's economy entered a gradual recovery phase as corporate earnings and employment conditions continued to improve against the backdrop of the government's economic policies and the Bank of Japan's monetary easing, although some areas lagged behind. However, share prices and foreign exchange rates fluctuated significantly as growth in emerging-market economies, particularly China, slowed and protectionist sentiment strengthened in Europe and the United States, heightening uncertainty over the outlook.」

「During the cumulative third quarter, Japan's economy remained on a gradual recovery track despite some weakness, and employment conditions continued to improve. However, the recovery in personal consumption was slow, while the effects of slowing growth in emerging-market economies, including China, and political and economic fluctuations in Europe and the United States remained difficult to foresee, leaving the outlook uncertain.」

「During the cumulative second quarter, Japan's economy remained on a gradual recovery track and employment conditions continued to improve, but corporate earnings showed some signs of weakening. Growth in emerging-market economies, including China, was slowing, and conditions remained uncertain going forward.」

「Although Japan's economy was on a gradual recovery track, corporate earnings showed signs of weakening as share prices fell and the yen appreciated, while personal consumption also showed signs of stagnation. Economic recovery remained uncertain.」