Risk of declining demand for driving instruction due to a declining young population
First written in FY2016. 13 of 38 entries say "Materialised", first in FY2017-Q1. Latest entry: 2026-08-07.
Musashino Kogyo moved to the "Worse" side of this theme in 2016.
0 other companies' latest entry also says "Mitigated".
- 2026-08-07MitigatedEarnings
「The number of new enrollees for training in standard vehicles, semi-medium vehicles, large and standard motorcycles, and other categories remained strong and exceeded the previous year’s results.」
Although the disclosure does not state that structural risks such as the declining young population have been resolved, the impact on demand in the first quarter has eased. - FY2026WorsenedAnnual report
「Although total enrolment across all vehicle types for the full fiscal year was below the previous year, operating revenue exceeded the previous year due to the effect of higher standard passenger-vehicle training fees, an increase in the amount of training completed after enrolment, and steady revenue from commissions for courses for older drivers and other programmes. Meanwhile, segment profit was below the previous year due to higher depreciation expenses resulting from the replacement of training vehicles and major renovation work at driving school facilities.」
The total number of enrollees across all vehicle types fell below the previous year, with demand-side risks, including the declining birthrate and declining demand for ordinary passenger vehicles, reflected in full-year results. Revenue increased, but segment profit fell 37.6% from the previous fiscal year. - 2026-05-15WorsenedEarnings
「In the driver-training business, the total number of new enrollees across all vehicle categories for the full fiscal year was below the previous year’s level.」
After demand was maintained at or above the previous year’s level in the previous interim period, the full-year total number of new enrollees across all vehicle categories fell below the previous year. - FY2026-H1MitigatedAnnual report
「The number of new enrollees remained at the same level as last year. In addition, completion of training courses after enrollment progressed smoothly, including for existing enrollees who enrolled in the previous fiscal year, while the number of contracted elderly-driver training participants, which has been trending upward, also exceeded the year-earlier period.」
Although the risk of declining demand for ordinary passenger vehicles and other types remains, the number of new enrollees remained at the year-earlier level, and the number of contracted elderly-driver training participants exceeded the year-earlier period. Demand-side effects were mitigated in the interim period, but the segment posted a loss due to factors including replacement of training vehicles. - FY2025MitigatedAnnual report
「In the driver training business, enrollment in the core ordinary, heavy and medium-sized vehicle training programs remained strong, with each exceeding the previous year's results.」
Although demand for ordinary passenger vehicles had been sluggish in the previous year, the number of enrollees for ordinary, heavy and medium-sized vehicle training exceeded the previous year this fiscal year, and total segment revenue rose 4.6% from the previous fiscal year. There is no statement that structural risks, such as the declining birthrate, have been eliminated. - FY2025-H1MitigatedAnnual report
「In the automotive driving school division, active sales activities lifted the number of new enrollees for standard passenger-vehicle and heavy-vehicle programmes, which form the core of revenue, above the previous year. The number of participants accepted for courses for older drivers, which we have been focusing on, also exceeded the previous year. As a result, total segment revenue was ¥130 million, up 5.3% year on year, and segment profit was ¥5 million, compared with a segment loss of ¥0 million in the previous year.」
The number of new enrollees for ordinary and heavy vehicle licenses and the number of elderly-driver training participants exceeded the previous year, improving revenue and profit in the driver training business. There is no statement that structural risks, such as a declining young population, have been eliminated, but their impact on performance in the interim period was mitigated. - FY2024WorsenedAnnual report
「As a result, total segment revenue was ¥291 million, down 21.9% from the previous fiscal year, and segment profit was ¥35 million, down 51.8%.」
The acquisition of new trainees for ordinary passenger vehicle licenses remained sluggish throughout the year, causing revenue from the driver training business to fall 21.9% from the previous fiscal year and segment profit to fall 51.8%. - FY2024-Q3WorsenedAnnual report
「In the driver training business, new training for applicants seeking heavy and medium-sized vehicle licenses and elderly-driver training remained firm. Meanwhile, although sales activities focused mainly on high school and university students approaching the graduation season, the number of new trainees acquired during the period was slightly below the previous year. As a result, total segment revenue was ¥200 million, down 11.1% year on year, and segment profit was ¥8 million, down 74.4%.」
The acquisition of new trainees for ordinary passenger vehicle licenses was slightly below the previous year, causing revenue from the driver training business to fall 11.1% year on year and segment profit to fall 74.4%. Heavy and medium-sized vehicle licenses and elderly-driver training remained firm, but the impact of declining demand for the core business worsened. - FY2024-Q2WorsenedAnnual report
「Although elderly-driver training benefited from social demand and the company was securing a stable number of trainees, the rebound from the increase in ordinary passenger vehicle license holders during the period of voluntary restrictions on activities due to COVID-19 through the previous fiscal year continued across the prefecture in ordinary passenger vehicle training. As a result, total segment revenue was ¥124 million, down 20.7% year on year, and segment loss was ¥0 million, compared with segment profit of ¥26 million in the year-earlier period.」
The rebound from the increase in license holders during the pandemic continued, with revenue from the driver training business falling 20.7% year on year and the segment moving from profit in the year-earlier period to a loss in the quarter. The impact of declining demand among young people and for ordinary passenger vehicles has worsened. - FY2024-Q1MaterialisedAnnual report
「Elderly-driver training was progressing as planned, while the rebound from the increase in ordinary and heavy vehicle license holders during the period of the COVID-19 pandemic had become apparent. In addition, a seasonal factor arose because, from the previous consolidated fiscal year, the fiscal year-end of consolidated subsidiary 株式会社寄居武蔵野自動車教習所 was changed from 31 January to 31 March. As a result, total segment revenue was ¥59 million, down 34.4% year on year, and segment loss was ¥4 million, compared with segment profit of ¥21 million in the year-earlier period.」
The rebound from the increase in demand for driver's licenses during the pandemic became apparent, with revenue from the driver training business falling 34.4% year on year and the segment moving from profit in the year-earlier period to a loss in the quarter. - FY2023MitigatedAnnual report
「During the consolidated fiscal year, demand for standard passenger-vehicle licences declined due to the declining birth rate, while demand for heavy vehicles and motorcycles increased substantially, resulting in higher operating revenue.」
Although the decline in demand for ordinary passenger vehicles due to the declining birthrate continued, increased demand for heavy vehicles and motorcycles resulted in revenue from the driver training business rising 11.0% from the previous fiscal year, including the impact of 14 months of consolidated results, while operating profit rose 0.5%. - FY2023-Q3MaterialisedAnnual report
「In the previous fiscal year, demand increased across all vehicle types, partly as a rebound from the decline in trainees caused by the spread of COVID-19. This fiscal year, results fell below the year-earlier level as conditions returned to normal. As a result, total segment revenue was ¥225 million, down 8.9% year on year, and segment profit was ¥33 million, down 32.0%.」
The elevated training demand in the previous fiscal year normalized, causing revenue from the driver training business to fall 8.9% year on year and segment profit to fall 32.0%. The risk of declining demand is reflected in the quarter's results. - FY2023-Q2MaterialisedAnnual report
「In the previous fiscal year, demand for driver's licenses increased as students who had deferred obtaining ordinary passenger vehicle licenses due to the spread of COVID-19 sought to obtain them, while more working adults sought licenses for vehicle types such as heavy vehicles that could be used for work or career changes. This fiscal year, as these demand drivers ran their course, conditions for all vehicle types returned to normal. As a result, total segment revenue was ¥156 million, down 8.7% year on year, and segment profit was ¥26 million, down 32.6%.」
The elevated demand for driver's licenses in the previous year ran its course and normalized, causing revenue from the driver training business to fall 8.7% year on year and segment profit to fall 32.6%. - FY2023-Q1Decline following the normalization of demandAnnual report
「Revenue increased significantly last year due to demand for driver's licenses, mainly among students who had deferred obtaining ordinary passenger vehicle licenses as the spread of COVID-19 continued. This fiscal year, as demand returned to normal, total segment revenue was ¥90 million, down 11.4% year on year. As a result, segment profit was ¥21 million, down 36.9%.」
As demand normalized after revenue growth driven by deferred demand for driver's licenses in the previous year, revenue from the driver training business fell 11.4% year on year and segment profit fell 36.9%. - FY2022MitigatedAnnual report
「During the consolidated fiscal year, demand for standard passenger-vehicle licences declined due to the declining birth rate, while demand for heavy vehicles and motorcycles increased substantially, resulting in higher operating revenue.」
Although the decline in demand for ordinary passenger vehicles due to the declining birthrate continued, revenue from the driver training business rose 3.5% from the previous fiscal year due to increased demand for heavy vehicles and motorcycles. The impact of declining demand risk was partly mitigated, while operating profit declined 25.0%. - FY2022-Q3MitigatedAnnual report
「Although the spread of COVID-19 created a challenging operating environment, operating performance remained generally firm, partly because demand increased for heavy vehicle and motorcycle licenses. As a result, total segment revenue was ¥247 million, up 11.8% year on year, while segment profit was ¥50 million, down 14.6%.」
Even amid the pandemic, demand for heavy vehicle and motorcycle licenses increased, and revenue rose 11.8% year on year. Segment profit fell 14.6%, but the impact of declining training demand risk was partly mitigated. - FY2022-Q2MitigatedAnnual report
「Although the spread of COVID-19 created a challenging operating environment, operating performance remained firm, partly because demand increased for licenses for heavy and medium-sized vehicles and other vehicles excluding ordinary passenger vehicles. As a result, total segment revenue was ¥171 million, up 21.2% year on year, while segment profit was ¥38 million, down 4.5%.」
Even amid the pandemic, demand for licenses for vehicles other than ordinary passenger vehicles increased, and revenue rose 21.2% year on year. Segment profit fell 4.5%, but the impact of declining demand risk was partly mitigated. - FY2022-Q1MitigatedAnnual report
「Although demand for driving licences among high school students approaching graduation season had eased, demand for licences other than the standard passenger-vehicle licence, including heavy-vehicle and special-vehicle licences, increased, and operating performance remained firm. As a result, total segment revenue was ¥102 million, up 20.7% year on year, and segment profit was ¥33 million, up 15.7%.」
Even amid the pandemic, demand for licenses for vehicles other than ordinary passenger vehicles increased, and revenue and segment profit from the driver training business exceeded the year-earlier levels, partly mitigating the impact of declining demand risk in the quarter. However, there is no statement that structural risks, such as a declining young population, have been eliminated. - FY2021MitigatedAnnual report
「As a result, total segment revenue was ¥324 million, up 3.2% from the previous fiscal year, while segment profit rose 73.8% to ¥97 million, due in part to lower selling, general and administrative expenses.」
Even amid the pandemic, demand for driver's licenses did not decline significantly, and there was also demand for licenses for vehicles other than ordinary passenger vehicles. Revenue rose 3.2% and segment profit rose 73.8%. - FY2021-Q3MitigatedAnnual report
「Although there were concerns about a prolonged challenging operating environment, including temporary closures for a certain period due to the spread of COVID-19, demand for ordinary passenger vehicle driver's licenses among university students and others remained, and demand for licenses for heavy vehicles, special vehicles and other vehicles excluding ordinary passenger vehicles showed no significant decline. Operating performance therefore remained generally firm. As a result, total segment revenue was ¥221 million, down 0.9% year on year, while segment profit rose 91.0% to ¥58 million, due in part to lower selling, general and administrative expenses.」
Although there were temporary closures due to COVID-19, demand for ordinary passenger vehicle licenses among university students and others and demand for licenses for other vehicle types did not decline significantly. Revenue fell only 0.9% year on year, while segment profit rose 91.0%. - FY2021-Q2MitigatedAnnual report
「Although the spread of COVID-19 created a challenging operating environment, there was demand for driver's licenses among university and vocational school students, and sales of training programs for heavy vehicles, special vehicles and other vehicles excluding ordinary passenger vehicles remained firm. As a result, total segment revenue was ¥141 million, down 8.1% year on year, while segment profit rose 60.7% to ¥40 million, due in part to lower selling, general and administrative expenses.」
Even amid the pandemic, demand from students and for training programs other than ordinary passenger vehicles remained firm, and segment profit rose 60.7% year on year. However, revenue fell 8.1%, so demand risk has not been eliminated. - FY2021-Q1MaterialisedAnnual report
「Demand for driver's licenses, mainly among high school students approaching graduation, had eased. Although the company also actively promoted training programs for motorcycles, heavy vehicles and special vehicles other than ordinary passenger vehicles, revenue declined because the company temporarily closed for a certain period in response to government policy and requests from local authorities accompanying the spread of COVID-19. As a result, total segment revenue was ¥84 million, down 9.8% year on year.」
Temporary closures of driving schools due to COVID-19 caused revenue from the driver training business to fall 9.8% year on year, with the risk of declining training demand reflected in the quarter's results. - FY2020WorsenedAnnual report
「In addition to a decline in trainees due to the impact of COVID-19, we recognize that the challenging operating environment, including the declining birthrate, declining interest among young people in obtaining driver's licenses, and competition from nearby driving schools, could affect future performance.」
In addition to the existing risks of the declining birthrate, declining interest in obtaining driver's licenses and competition, the company has added the decline in trainees due to COVID-19 as a performance risk. - FY2020-Q3RestatedAnnual report
「In the driver training business, we recognize and analyze the challenging operating environment, including the declining birthrate, declining interest among young people in obtaining driver's licenses, and competition from nearby driving schools, as affecting operating performance.」
The company continues to recognize the risk that the declining birthrate, declining interest among young people in obtaining driver's licenses, and competition from nearby driving schools will affect operating performance. - FY2020-Q2MaterialisedAnnual report
「Although demand for driver's licenses, particularly among students, had eased and the number of new enrollees was declining, the company worked to maintain operating performance by offering a range of training plans by vehicle type. As a result, total segment revenue was ¥154 million, down 8.2% year on year, while segment profit rose 77.4% to ¥25 million, due in part to lower selling, general and administrative expenses.」
Demand for driver's licenses, particularly among students, had eased, and revenue fell 8.2% year on year. Segment profit increased due to lower selling, general and administrative expenses, but the impact of declining demand is reflected in the results. - FY2020-Q1MaterialisedAnnual report
「Demand for driver's licenses, mainly among high school students approaching graduation, had eased. Although the company conducted broad sales activities, focusing also on promoting training programs for motorcycles, heavy vehicles and special vehicles other than ordinary passenger vehicles, the number of new enrollees was roughly unchanged from the year-earlier period. In addition, some trainees were unable to complete their training programs, with graduation pushed into the following quarter and revenue not recognized. As a result, total segment revenue was ¥93 million, down 13.4% year on year, and segment profit was ¥24 million, down 18.5%.」
In addition to demand for driver's licenses having eased, delays in completing training and the postponement of graduations to the following quarter occurred, causing revenue and segment profit to fall below the year-earlier levels. - FY2019-Q3MaterialisedAnnual report
「The company conducted sales activities, including various discount campaigns to promote driver's license acquisition, mainly among high school and university students approaching the graduation season, but demand has yet to gain momentum. Meanwhile, selling, general and administrative expenses also declined. As a result, total segment revenue was ¥221 million, down 3.7% year on year, and segment profit was ¥15 million, up 274.1%.」
Demand for driver training ahead of the graduation season got off to a slow start, and revenue fell 3.7% year on year. Segment profit increased due to lower selling, general and administrative expenses, but demand-side risks persist. - FY2019-Q2MaterialisedAnnual report
「Although demand for driver's licenses, particularly among students, had eased and it was a difficult period for attracting new trainees, the company worked to maintain operating performance by offering a range of training plans by vehicle type. As a result, total segment revenue was ¥167 million, up 3.3% year on year, and segment profit was ¥14 million, down 3.7%.」
With demand for driver's licenses, particularly among students, having eased and new trainee acquisition difficult, segment profit fell 3.7% year on year. - FY2019-Q1RestatedAnnual report
「In the driver training business, we recognize and analyze the challenging operating environment, including the declining birthrate and declining interest among young people in obtaining driver's licenses, as affecting the acquisition of trainees and operating performance.」
The company continues to recognize the risk that the declining birthrate and declining interest among young people in obtaining driver's licenses will affect trainee acquisition and operating performance. - FY2018WorsenedAnnual report
「Amid the impact of a decline in the young population, including high school students, and declining interest among young people in obtaining driver's licenses, total segment revenue was ¥320 million, down 4.6% from the previous fiscal year, and segment profit was ¥16 million, down 59.7%.」
The effects of a declining young population and declining interest among young people in obtaining driver's licenses continued, with revenue from the driver training business down 4.6% and segment profit down 59.7%. - FY2018-Q3WorsenedAnnual report
「As a result, total segment revenue was ¥229 million, down 4.9% year on year, and segment profit was ¥4 million, down 83.0%.」
The sluggish demand for driver's licenses, particularly among students, continued, with revenue from the driver training business down 4.9% year on year and segment profit down 83.0%. - FY2018-Q2MaterialisedAnnual report
「Although demand for driver's licenses, particularly among students, had eased and it was a difficult period for attracting new trainees, the company worked to maintain operating performance by replacing training vehicles and implementing various discount campaigns. As a result, total segment revenue was ¥162 million, down 2.6% year on year, and segment profit was ¥14 million, down 24.8%.」
The sluggish demand for driver's licenses, particularly among students, continued, with revenue from the driver training business down 2.6% year on year and segment profit down 24.8%. - FY2018-Q1RestatedAnnual report
「Although demand for driver's licenses, mainly among high school students, had eased, operating performance was slightly above the year-earlier level. As a result, total segment revenue was ¥107 million, up 1.5% year on year, and segment profit was ¥31 million, up 2.2%.」
Demand for driver's licenses, mainly among high school students, remains subdued, but revenue and segment profit exceeded the year-earlier levels. - FY2017MaterialisedAnnual report
「Total segment revenue was ¥336 million, down 7.0% from the previous fiscal year, and segment profit was ¥40 million, down 35.7%.」
Due in part to delays in the timing of driver training demand, revenue from the driver training business fell 7.0% from the previous fiscal year and segment profit fell 35.7%. - FY2017-Q3MaterialisedAnnual report
「The company actively conducted various training-fee discount campaigns in preparation for the graduation season for high school and university students and strengthened PR activities to attract new trainees. However, enrollment was delayed, resulting in segment revenue of ¥241 million, down 8.1% year on year, and segment profit of ¥23 million, down 41.7% year on year.」
Due in part to delays in the timing of enrollment, revenue from the driver training business fell 8.1% year on year and segment profit fell 41.7%. - FY2017-Q2MaterialisedAnnual report
「Although demand for driver's licenses, particularly among students, had eased and it was a difficult period for attracting new trainees, the company worked to maintain operating performance through locally focused sales activities, including various discount campaigns and detailed transportation services. As a result, total segment revenue was ¥166 million, down 9.5% year on year, and segment profit was ¥19 million, down 41.2%.」
Demand for driver's licenses, particularly among students, had eased, and revenue and segment profit fell below the year-earlier levels. - FY2017-Q1MaterialisedAnnual report
「Mainly because high school students are receiving job offers earlier, the period when they are allowed to obtain a driver's license before the graduation season also moved forward. As a result, demand among high school students for driver's licenses had eased during the cumulative first quarter, and operating performance fell below the year-earlier level.」
Training demand declined and operating performance fell below the year-earlier level. The factors cited this time were the earlier timing of job offers to high school students and driver's license acquisition, rather than a decline in the young population. - FY2016First statedAnnual report
「Most new applicants for driver’s licenses are people in their late teens and 20s, but the population of younger people is statistically expected to decline in the future. Because a decline in the young population directly leads to a decline in the number of people obtaining driver’s licenses, industry-wide revenue is trending downward.」
The target age group is explicitly stated as 18 to people in their 20s, indicating that population decline could lead to a decrease in license holders and industry revenue.