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Ef-On (9514) · RiskMaterialised

Regulatory, wholesale electricity price and forecast-variance risks in the electricity retail business

First written in FY2021. 6 of 18 entries say "Worsened", first in FY2022-Q2. Latest entry: FY2026.

18entries
6years
5from disclosures
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How it moved
ProgressHeldSoftenedWorseWorsenedFY2022-Q2 – FY2023-Q2MitigatedFY2023-Q3 – FY2024-Q1WorsenedFY2024-Q32021: 120212022: 420222023: 320232024: 220242025: 120252026: 72026
Same theme, other companies
Risk of higher procurement costs due to volatility in wholesale electricity market pricesA theme 22 companies write about · 23 as a headwind · 1 as a tailwind

Ef-On moved to the "Worse" side of this theme in 2024, 2 years after the typical company in this theme (2022).

The whole theme swung hardest in 2021: 4 of 15 companies on the "Worse" side.

3 other companies' latest entry also says "Materialised".

Ridges = years it wrote progress, valleys = years it wrote worse. Most hopeful companies at the back. Drag to turn, scroll to zoom, right-drag to pan. On a phone, two fingers turn and pinch to zoom; one finger scrolls the page.
Showing 14 of the 22 companies compared. The sentences above are computed from all 22.
Full recordFilings, disclosures and news, newest first
  1. FY2026MaterialisedAnnual report

    「As the volume of fixed-price contracts has increased, we have used electricity futures transactions for a certain portion of the contracted electricity volume to stabilize future earnings against a potential rise in market prices. Realized gains on electricity futures during the current consolidated fiscal year were ¥397 million, resulting in a profit of ¥107 million after taking into account the loss in this business segment.」

    Regarding market price and futures transaction risks in the electricity retail business, the company states that rising market prices associated with the increase in fixed-price contracts pressured operating profit, and that business profit remained at ¥107 million even including ¥397 million in gains on futures transactions.
  2. FY2026-H1MaterialisedAnnual report

    「To mitigate the risk of higher procurement prices for electricity sold, we used electricity futures derivatives, which resulted in valuation gains and losses becoming a factor that reduced ordinary profit during the current interim consolidated accounting period.」

    Regarding market price fluctuation risk in the electricity retail business, the company states that the use of electricity futures derivatives resulted in the recognition of a ¥174 million valuation loss on derivatives during the current interim consolidated accounting period, which actually reduced ordinary profit.
  3. FY2025ReframedAnnual report

    「In the electricity retail business, electricity procured at market prices is subject to price fluctuations. In particular, when market prices surge, electricity procurement costs increase and worsen cash flow. To stabilize procurement, we use electricity futures transactions through the Tokyo Commodity Exchange, Inc. for a certain portion of the electricity volumes covered by sales contracts. Accordingly, differences between the market price at the fiscal year-end and the prices of electricity futures transactions that have not yet matured may affect our Group's operating results and financial position.」

    The description of risks in the electricity retail business has been expanded beyond systems, wholesale electricity prices and deviations from planned values to include procurement stabilization using electricity futures transactions and the potential impact on operating results and financial position of differences between fiscal year-end market prices and futures prices.
  4. FY2024-Q3WorsenedAnnual report

    「Operation of the capacity market, in which future electricity supply capacity is traded, has begun. The introduction of this system, which requires electricity retailers to bear the cost of maintaining power plants, will increase the burden on electricity consumers.」

    Regarding regulatory risk in the electricity retail business, the company newly describes a regulatory environment in which the launch of the capacity market requires electricity retailers to bear power plant maintenance costs, increasing the burden on consumers.
  5. FY2024-Q2RestatedAnnual report

    「During the current quarterly accounting period, we focused on market-linked electricity sales and achieved a return to profitability.」

    The company continues to report that the electricity retail business has remained profitable as a result of its response of shifting to market-linked sales.
  6. FY2024-Q1MitigatedAnnual report

    「We focused on acquiring sales contracts linked to the increasingly stable electricity market price and achieved a return to profitability.」

    Regarding market price and contract acquisition risks in the electricity retail business, the company states that it acquired market-price-linked sales contracts and achieved a return to profitability.
  7. FY2023-Q3MitigatedAnnual report

    「In the electricity retail business in the Other segment, we focused on acquiring market-linked electricity supply contracts and achieved a certain level of results.」

    The company states that it focused on acquiring market-linked electricity supply contracts in response to risks related to the electricity retail business's systems, wholesale electricity prices and deviations from planned values, and achieved a certain level of results.
  8. FY2023-Q2WorsenedAnnual report

    「Accordingly, the suspension of new supply-and-demand contracts by the suppliers of this electricity has continued.」

    The impact of persistently high wholesale electricity prices and power generation costs has extended to the continued suspension of new supply-and-demand contracts.
  9. FY2023-Q1WorsenedAnnual report

    「Under these circumstances, our electricity retailing business has been promoting the sale to customers of electricity generated at Group power plants as green electricity combined with traceable non-fossil certificates, but the suspension of aggressive contract expansion due to persistently high market prices has continued.」

    In the electricity retail business, the company continues to refrain from proactively expanding contracts because market prices have remained high.
  10. FY2022WorsenedAnnual report

    「Under these conditions, our electricity retail business is promoting the sale to customers of power generated by Group power plants as green power bundled with traceable non-fossil certificates. However, the suspension of proactive contract expansion has continued because market prices have remained high.」

    Regarding market price risk in the electricity retail business, the company states that high prices have persisted, and that it continues to refrain from proactively expanding contracts for green power sales.
  11. FY2022-Q3WorsenedAnnual report

    「In this industry, trading prices on the Japan Electric Power Exchange remained high, forcing electricity retailers that use market-based electricity to withdraw from the business.」

    The company states that risks related to the electricity retail business's systems and wholesale electricity prices have progressed from operators suspending contract acquisition because market prices remained high to withdrawing from the business.
  12. FY2022-Q2WorsenedAnnual report

    「Due to persistently high market prices, we decided to temporarily suspend proactive efforts to acquire contracts.」

    Risks related to the electricity retail business's systems and wholesale electricity prices have extended to a business response of temporarily suspending proactive contract acquisition because market prices have remained high.
  13. FY2021First statedAnnual report

    「The electricity retail business is governed by the Electricity Business Act. If amendments to that Act or other laws and regulations related to electricity retailing change the systems governing electricity sales and purchases and cause a material change in the business structure, if trading prices on the Japan Electric Power Exchange, which underlie electricity trading, fluctuate substantially, or if electricity volumes traded with general transmission and distribution operators differ materially from planned values, the Group's results and financial position may be affected.」

    The Company first separately discloses the risks of legal and regulatory changes, fluctuations in Japan Electric Power Exchange prices and differences from planned volumes in transactions with general transmission and distribution operators.
Moved together

"Advancing operations, facility maintenance and fuel management" moved the same way as this thread, in the same document, in 10 of its 18 moves.

10109988★123456
  1. ★This thread
  2. 1Advancing operations, facility maintenance and fuel management10×
  3. 2Substantial growth in consolidated revenue and earnings led by the power-generation business10×
  4. 3Risk to the stable operation of power-generation facilities9×
  5. 4Risk of fluctuations in material and labor costs in maintenance cost estimates9×
  6. 5Revenue and operating profit growth in the green energy business8×
  7. 6Political instability in the United States and Europe and geopolitical risks in East Asia8×

★ is this thread; numbers match the list above. The number on a line is how many documents both moved the same way in; lines between the other threads count the documents they moved together in too. Threads that move together often sit closer.

When this could move next
Ef-On's next results are scheduled for 2026-11-05. Read the earnings preview It last moved in the Earnings of 2026-08-12: "Materialised".
News
No news is linked to this thread yet. When an article touches it, it will appear here by date.
Regulatory, wholesale electricity price and forecast-variance risks in the electricity retail business | EF-ON INC. (9514) | Komori