Difficulty Forecasting the Mobile Market Due to System Changes, Including Fully Separated Pricing Plans
First written in FY2019-Q4. 12 of 20 entries say "Worsened", first in FY2020-Q1. Latest entry: FY2026.
NJ Holdings moved to the "Worse" side of this theme in 2019, the same year as the typical company in this theme.
The whole theme swung hardest in 2022: 3 of 8 companies on the "Worse" side.
1 other company's latest entry also says "Worsened".
- FY2026WorsenedAnnual report
「Smartphone shipments are expected to decline as devices become more expensive due to the weaker yen and higher costs for memory and other components, while replacement demand has run its course.」
The outlook shifted toward declining domestic shipments against a backdrop of higher device prices and the end of the replacement-demand cycle. The Company also referred to expectations for increased supply of mid-range devices and restraint in prices. - FY2026-H1Recovery in replacement demand amid persistently high device pricesAnnual report
「In the mobile industry, shipments continue to show signs of recovery, while measures to stimulate replacement purchases, such as trade-in programs, are encouraging demand as handset prices remain high due to foreign exchange and other factors.」
While uncertainty remains in the institutional and market environment due to persistently high handset prices, shipments continue to recover as a result of measures to encourage replacement purchases, such as trade-in programs. - FY2025Regulatory easing and recovery in replacement demandAnnual report
「Although device prices are trending higher due to the weaker yen and rising costs, shipments are recovering as replacement demand increases amid higher discount caps and strengthened device-upgrade initiatives by telecommunications carriers. This recovery trend is also expected to continue in fiscal 2025.」
Although uncertainty remains due to higher device prices and regulatory changes, the disclosure describes a recovery phase for replacement demand and shipments resulting from higher discount caps and other measures. - FY2025-H1WorsenedAnnual report
「Regulations concerning trade-in prices and other matters were revised in December 2024, resulting in cases where customers’ device costs increased. Meanwhile, the discount cap was relaxed for millimeter-wave-compatible devices.」
The revision of regulations concerning trade-in prices and other matters has resulted in cases where customers’ device costs increased, making demand pressures in the mobile market resulting from regulatory changes more pronounced. The disclosure also refers to the relaxation of discount caps for millimeter-wave-compatible devices. - FY2024-Q3WorsenedAnnual report
「As the benefits of switching decline due to normalized device prices and lower telecommunications charges, replacement intervals are lengthening amid higher selling prices resulting from the weaker yen and other factors and lower purchasing appetite for the latest models. Further tightening of discount regulations began on 27 December 2023 following legal amendments, and purchase plans for users seeking the latest devices have emerged. However, replacement cycles are expected to lengthen further as purchasing appetite trends lower.」
The disclosure states that replacement intervals are actually lengthening, and indicates that higher selling prices due to the weaker yen and other factors, lower purchasing appetite, and tighter discount regulations are expected to cause further lengthening. - FY2024-Q2WorsenedAnnual report
「Further tightening of discount regulations began on 27 December 2023 following legal amendments. While purchase plans for users seeking the latest devices have emerged, replacement cycles are expected to lengthen further as purchasing appetite trends lower.」
Further tightening of discount regulations began on 27 December 2023, and uncertainty in the mobile market and demand pressures resulting from regulatory changes are increasing, with purchasing appetite declining and replacement cycles expected to lengthen further. - FY2024-Q1WorsenedAnnual report
「As the MNP one-stop online process makes switching more convenient and faster, opportunities to acquire users through stores are decreasing.」
The progress of online procedures has made the decline in customer acquisition opportunities through stores more pronounced. The outlook for the store business continues to be affected by changes in regulations and sales channels. - FY2023-Q1WorsenedAnnual report
「As pricing plans decline and device prices become more normalized, the benefits of switching are decreasing. Device sales are tending to decline as high-end devices become more expensive and functional improvements slow. In addition, commission revenue is tending to decline as online-only plans expand.」
The Company explains that device sales and commission revenue are tending to decline due to changes in pricing plans and device prices, higher prices for high-end devices, slower functional improvements, and the expansion of online-only plans. - FY2022RestatedAnnual report
「As online procedures become established and a gradual shift online is expected in the mobile phone market, the decline in the store network is expected to continue.」
The disclosure continues to refer to regulatory and market changes involving online procedures, low-cost plans, and the decline in the store network. It indicates a policy of responding through appointment-based visits, mobile sales, and trading-area analysis at stores. - FY2022-Q3WorsenedAnnual report
「As carrier email portability and the abolition of contract cancellation fees make switching carriers easier, competition to acquire switching customers is intensifying.」
Changes in pricing and sales systems, together with easier switching, have intensified competition to acquire users. Competition for switching has been added to the previous situation of expanding store functions amid competition among low-cost plans. - FY2022-Q1Expansion of store functions amid low-price competitionAnnual report
「As competition to promote low-cost plans, including online plans and sub-brands, intensifies, the number of major carrier stores continues to decline slightly. At the same time, the role expected of stores is expanding, including through the growing practice of handling sub-brands alongside the main brands.」
Against the backdrop of market changes driven by the spread of low-cost and online plans, the disclosure refers both to the slight decline in the number of carrier stores and to the expansion of store functions, including the handling of sub-brands. - FY2021Changes in the role of stores following the launch of online-only plansAnnual report
「The role of store-based services is expected to change as telecommunications carriers launch online-only plans.」
In addition to market changes resulting from legal amendments and price competition, the Company indicated that the launch of online-only plans would change the role of retail stores. - FY2021-Q3Transition to a recovery phase in demandAnnual report
「In the mobile industry, shipments initially recovered as demand for device purchases delayed from the 2020 spring sales season and the launch of new mid-range devices supported the market. Shipments subsequently returned to low levels as customers waited to see the new plans being considered by mobile carriers and the launch of the new iPhone. However, customer traffic began to recover, supported by replacement demand associated with the shutdown of 3G networks and demand generated by the launch of new pricing plans, and the 2021 spring sales season saw a solid recovery.」
After shipments weakened as customers considered new plans and waited for the new iPhone, the spring sales season recovered due to replacement demand associated with the 3G network shutdown and the launch of new pricing plans. Although market volatility from regulatory changes and pricing initiatives remains, the Company describes current demand as being in a recovery phase. - FY2021-Q2WorsenedAnnual report
「From December through the beginning of the new year, telecommunications carriers announced online-only brands scheduled to launch in March 2021.」
Telecommunications carriers announced online-only brands scheduled to launch in March 2021. The emergence of new pricing structures and sales channels has made competition and the outlook for the mobile market more uncertain. - FY2021-Q1RestatedAnnual report
「Although device shipments recovered as demand for device purchases delayed from the spring sales season and the launch of new mid-range devices supported the market, shipments again fell to low levels as customers waited to see the new plans being considered by mobile carriers and the launch of the new iPhone.」
Device demand recovered temporarily, but shipments again weakened as customers considered new plans and waited for the new iPhone. The difficulty of forecasting the market due to regulatory changes and other factors continues. - FY2020WorsenedAnnual report
「In the mobile industry, device shipments have remained below typical levels as legal amendments concerning separated plans and discount regulations take effect and the latest and high-end models become less affordable. In addition, requests to refrain from going out to prevent the spread of COVID-19 reduced the usual momentum of the spring sales season, while the impact on device manufacturers’ supply chains also contributed to sluggish shipments.」
The decline in shipments caused by separated plans and discount regulations was compounded by requests to refrain from going out and supply chain disruptions, increasing uncertainty on both the demand and supply sides of the mobile market. - FY2020-Q3WorsenedAnnual report
「In the mobile industry, device shipments have remained below typical levels as legal amendments concerning separated plans and discount regulations take effect and the latest and high-end models become less affordable. In addition, requests to refrain from going out to prevent the spread of COVID-19 reduced the usual momentum of the spring sales season, while the impact on device manufacturers’ supply chains also contributed to sluggish shipments.」
In addition to lower demand resulting from separated plans and discount regulations, requests to refrain from going out and supply chain disruptions compounded the situation, making the weakness in device shipments more pronounced. - FY2020-Q2WorsenedAnnual report
「In the mobile industry, as legal amendments concerning separated plans and discount regulations take effect, customers are tending to postpone device replacements because the latest and high-end models have become less affordable. Telecommunications carriers are strengthening their response to the new regulatory framework and their efforts to acquire and retain users by expanding their product lineups, including a broader range of mid-range devices.」
Legal amendments concerning separated plans and discount regulations have entered the implementation phase, with the decline in device affordability and the postponement of replacement purchases becoming more pronounced. - FY2020-Q1WorsenedAnnual report
「The introduction of new regulations governing pricing and other matters has made it more difficult to forecast future business conditions.」
In addition to the previous regulatory discussions, the disclosure refers to the introduction of new regulations governing pricing and other matters, making the difficulty of forecasting the mobile market more specific and pronounced. - FY2019-Q4First statedAnnual report
「Discussion of further new regulations has begun in the mobile market, making market trends more difficult to forecast.」
The Company identifies the difficulty of forecasting mobile market trends as a new risk due to discussions of further regulatory changes, in addition to the mandatory introduction of fully separated plans and new pricing plans by telecommunications carriers.