Downside risk to business performance from economic slowdown and declining cargo movements
First written in FY2016. 11 of 35 entries say "Materialised", first in FY2017-Q1. Latest entry: FY2026.
Japan Transcity moved to the "Worse" side of this theme in 2016, 3 years before the typical company in this theme (2019).
The whole theme swung hardest in 2022: 7 of 7 companies on the "Worse" side.
0 other companies' latest entry also says "Other".
- FY2026A slowdown in overseas economies and stagnant production coexist with resilient domestic demandAnnual report
「Cargo movements related to production remained sluggish amid slowing overseas economies and stagnant production activity in the manufacturing sector. Meanwhile, logistics demand, particularly in domestic-demand-related fields, remained firm, and cargo movements showed signs of recovery.」
Weakness in production-related cargo due to the slowdown in overseas economies and stagnation in manufacturing coexisted with firm logistics demand related to domestic demand. - FY2026-H1WorsenedAnnual report
「Cargo movements showed signs of recovery against a backdrop of recovering production activity and domestic demand, and the logistics industry overall entered a gradual improvement trend. However, costs continued to rise due to inflation and labor shortages, and the industry as a whole remained without strong momentum.」
Although cargo movements showed signs of recovery, costs continued to rise due to inflation and labor shortages, leaving the logistics industry as a whole without strong momentum. - FY2025Economic recovery alongside slower cargo movements in some industriesAnnual report
「Although cargo movements related to automobiles began to slow in both imports and exports in the second half of the fiscal year, transportation volumes for international cargo remained solid, with consumer goods cargo showing signs of recovery, among other factors. The logistics industry overall remained firm.」
The logistics industry overall was described as solid, while the slowdown in automotive-related cargo in the second half of the fiscal year coexisted with a recovery in consumer goods cargo. - FY2025-H1Gradual recovery in cargo movements alongside the impact of ocean freight rate normalizationAnnual report
「Against a backdrop of recovering production activity, some industries showed signs of recovery in cargo movements and the logistics industry overall entered a gradual recovery trend. However, the impact of the normalization of ocean freight rates overseas was substantial, resulting in lower revenue year on year.」
Although the logistics industry overall showed a gradual recovery trend, the normalization of ocean freight rates overseas and other factors caused net sales to decline year on year. The impact of economic and cargo volume risks therefore included both recovery factors and downward pressure. - FY2024-Q3MaterialisedAnnual report
「As a result, consolidated net sales for the nine months ended the third quarter were ¥93.073 billion, down 6.9% year on year. The warehousing business remained strong due to increased handling of automotive-related products and the full-scale operation of a consolidated subsidiary, while the port transportation business remained sluggish and the international multimodal transportation business was extremely weak as ocean freight rates normalized. Consolidated ordinary profit was ¥6.173 billion, down 24.4% year on year, due in part to higher one-time costs associated with the launch of a large new facility, lower equity-method investment income and foreign exchange gains, and higher expenses associated with the issuance of green bonds.」
Weak volumes in the port and international multimodal transportation businesses actually occurred, while the normalization of ocean freight rates also contributed to lower sales in international multimodal transportation. Consolidated net sales declined 6.9% year on year and consolidated ordinary profit declined 24.4%. - FY2024-Q2WorsenedAnnual report
「Although cargo movements showed signs of recovery in some industries against a backdrop of recovering production activity, the logistics industry overall remained sluggish. Consolidated ordinary profit was ¥3.868 billion, down 29.3% year on year, due in part to higher one-time costs associated with the launch of a large new facility, lower equity-method investment income and foreign exchange gains, and higher expenses associated with the issuance of green bonds.」
Although some industries showed signs of recovering cargo movements, the logistics industry overall remained sluggish. Consolidated ordinary profit also declined 29.3% year on year, with downside factors affecting earnings becoming apparent. - FY2024-Q1Economic recovery trend, lower profitAnnual report
「The Group's performance during the three months ended the first quarter remained solid in the integrated logistics business as the economy maintained a moderate recovery trend. Consolidated ordinary profit was ¥2.162 billion, down 16.0% year on year, due in part to higher selling, general and administrative expenses at overseas affiliates, lower equity-method investment income and foreign exchange gains, and higher expenses associated with the issuance of green bonds.」
The integrated logistics business remained solid as the economy maintained a moderate recovery trend, while ordinary profit declined 16.0% year on year due to higher selling, general and administrative expenses at overseas affiliates, lower investment income and foreign exchange gains, and expenses associated with the issuance of green bonds, among other factors. - FY2023MaterialisedAnnual report
「Volumes in the core truck transportation business were 6.419 million tons, down 6.0% year on year; rail transportation volumes were 149,000 tons, down 4.0%; and bulk container transportation volumes were 214,000 tons, down 2.9%.」
A decline in cargo movements caused by production adjustments and other factors actually occurred, resulting in year-on-year declines in truck, rail and bulk container transportation volumes. - FY2023-Q3MaterialisedAnnual report
「As a result, consolidated net sales for the nine months ended the third quarter were ¥100.01 billion, up 15.6% year on year. Cargo movements remained weak due to production adjustments and foreign exchange movements, resulting in sluggish performance in the port and land transportation businesses. In contrast, overseas subsidiaries in the international multimodal transportation business maintained strong performance, while ocean freight rates, although declining toward normalization, remained at a certain level and sales were affected by foreign exchange movements.」
Weak cargo movements caused by production adjustments and foreign exchange movements, along with sluggish port and land transportation businesses, actually occurred. The performance of overseas subsidiaries in the international multimodal transportation business and the effects of ocean freight rates and foreign exchange movements resulted in overall revenue growth. - FY2023-Q2Cargo volumes partly improved, but instability continuedAnnual report
「During the six months ended the second quarter, Japan's economy maintained its recovery trend despite the spread of COVID-19 variants and supply constraints for raw materials, including semiconductors. However, uncertainty remained due to high inflation caused by the rapid resumption of social and economic activity in the United States and Europe, geopolitical risks and China's zero-COVID policy, among other factors.」
Although the economy maintained its recovery trend, high inflation, geopolitical risks, China's zero-COVID policy and supply constraints for raw materials were newly identified as risks, and uncertainty over the outlook continued. Logistics cargo partly improved from the second quarter, but conditions remained unstable for the first half overall. - FY2023-Q1MaterialisedAnnual report
「The Group's performance during the three months ended the first quarter was affected by inventory adjustments in production activities and lockdowns in China in the integrated logistics business.」
Inventory adjustments and lockdowns in China resulted in actual declines in cargo volumes and domestic cargo movements. Cargo inflow and outflow volumes in the warehousing business declined 9.0% year on year, while ocean transportation in the international multimodal transportation business declined 14.2% and air transportation declined 56.8%. - FY2022WorsenedAnnual report
「Japan's economy is expected to remain uncertain due to concerns over a further prolongation of the COVID-19 pandemic and rising geopolitical risks.」
The company highlighted concerns over a prolonged pandemic as well as rising geopolitical risks, increasing uncertainty over the outlook. - FY2022-Q3Cargo volumes recovering, with some declinesAnnual report
「In the land transportation business, rail transportation volumes declined from the same period of the previous year, but volumes in the core truck and bulk container transportation businesses remained strong due to the continued recovery in domestic cargo movements.」
Domestic cargo movements continued to recover, increasing truck and bulk container transportation volumes, while rail transportation and completed automobile volumes declined. Overall, consolidated net sales increased 16.5% year on year and consolidated ordinary profit increased 83.5%, indicating a mixed impact. - FY2022-Q2Recovery trend maintained, outlook uncertainAnnual report
「Japan's economy during the six months ended the second quarter was recovering as the global economy continued to recover and domestic demand, including personal consumption, remained firm. However, the outlook remained uncertain due to economic polarization among industries, the spread of COVID-19 variants and the issuance of states of emergency, among other factors.」
The recovery in the global economy and domestic demand and the increase in logistics cargo continued, resulting in a 16.0% year-on-year increase in consolidated net sales and a 118.5% increase in consolidated ordinary profit. However, uncertainty over the outlook remained due to economic polarization and the spread of COVID-19 variants, among other factors. - FY2022-Q1Recovery trend continues, higher revenue and profitAnnual report
「The performance of the Group during the three months ended the first quarter was strong in the integrated logistics business, which maintained the recovery trend that had begun in the second half of the previous fiscal year.」
The integrated logistics business maintained its recovery trend despite the impact of the economic slowdown and lower cargo volumes that had become apparent in the previous fiscal year. Consolidated net sales increased 13.8% year on year and consolidated ordinary profit increased 128.0%. - FY2021Second-half recovery, full-year revenue declineAnnual report
「In the integrated logistics business, volumes remained sluggish in the first and second quarters, when economic activity stagnated due to the spread of COVID-19, but turned to a recovery trend from the third quarter. In the fourth quarter, volumes in warehousing, port transportation, land transportation and international multimodal transportation recovered to levels substantially above those of the same period of the previous year.」
Cargo volumes recovered in the third and fourth quarters after sluggishness in the first half, but full-year consolidated net sales declined 0.4% year on year, with the impact persisting through the full year. - FY2021-Q3Recovery trend, but cumulative impact continuesAnnual report
「During the nine months ended the third quarter, Japan's economy contracted as economic activity stagnated due to the spread of COVID-19. Although the subsequent resumption of economic activity showed signs of recovery, the further spread of COVID-19 left no clear prospect of containment, and conditions remained uncertain.」
Cargo movements showed signs of recovery as economic activity resumed, and the main logistics businesses recovered to roughly the same level as the same period of the previous year in the third quarter. However, the impact of the sharp decline in the first quarter remained in the cumulative period, resulting in a 3.2% year-on-year decline in consolidated net sales. - FY2021-Q2MaterialisedAnnual report
「Against this economic backdrop, cargo movements in the domestic freight market remained sluggish and international cargo also declined, creating a difficult operating environment for the logistics industry.」
The decline in domestic and international cargo movements caused by the spread of COVID-19 continued. Consolidated net sales declined 5.0% year on year and consolidated ordinary profit declined 12.8%. The company also stated that signs of recovery emerged in the second quarter compared with the first quarter. - FY2021-Q1MaterialisedAnnual report
「The spread of COVID-19 led the government to issue a state of emergency. Requests to refrain from going out, suspend business operations and avoid the Three Cs significantly restricted social and economic activity, creating an extremely difficult situation.」
The spread of COVID-19 resulted in an actual slowdown in cargo movements. Consolidated net sales declined 5.6% year on year and consolidated ordinary profit declined 28.0%. - FY2020-Q3Lower volumes in some areas, continued overall revenue growthAnnual report
「In this segment, bulk container transportation volumes increased 8.0% year on year, while truck transportation volumes declined 2.3% and rail transportation volumes declined 12.9%.」
Bulk container transportation increased, while truck and rail transportation declined. Although volumes of some export cargo and other cargo declined in port transportation and international multimodal transportation, warehousing and import cargo provided support, resulting in a 2.1% year-on-year increase in net sales for the integrated logistics business. - FY2020-Q2Lower volumes in some areas, overall revenue growth and lower profitAnnual report
「Consolidated net sales for the six months ended the second quarter were ¥50.591 billion, up 3.4% year on year, due mainly to steady warehousing volumes and generally steady volumes at overseas subsidiaries in the international multimodal transportation business. Consolidated ordinary profit was ¥2.188 billion, down 1.1% year on year, due to higher transportation and operating costs, as well as taxes and other public charges associated with the construction of a new warehouse, among other factors.」
Overall net sales increased, supported by warehousing and volumes at overseas subsidiaries, while ordinary profit declined due to higher transportation and other costs. The impact of lower cargo volumes remained in some areas, resulting in higher revenue but lower profit overall. - FY2020-Q1Lower volumes in some areas, overall revenue growth and lower profitAnnual report
「In the port transportation business, export container and coal volumes at Yokkaichi Port declined from the same period of the previous year, while volumes of completed automobiles increased in both exports and domestic shipments. In the land transportation business, volumes in the core truck and bulk container transportation businesses increased, while rail transportation volumes declined. In the international multimodal transportation business, export volumes in ocean transportation declined, while import volumes increased. Air transportation volumes increased year on year for both exports and imports.」
Volumes declined for export containers, coal, rail transportation and ocean exports, while completed automobiles, truck and bulk container transportation, ocean imports and air transportation increased. Net sales in the integrated logistics business rose 2.9% year on year and consolidated net sales rose 2.8%, but ordinary profit declined, indicating that the impact of lower cargo volumes was partial and mixed. - FY2019Lower volumes in some areas, continued overall revenue growthAnnual report
「Import and export volumes in ocean transportation were 1.723 million tons, down 4.3% year on year, while import and export volumes in air transportation were 2,389 tons, down 1.7%. However, the number of air transportation shipments increased 4.8% due to growth in demand attributable to natural disasters in Japan and overseas.」
While declines continued in ocean and air transportation volumes, air transportation shipment volumes, warehousing, port transportation and land transportation provided support, resulting in a 4.7% year-on-year increase in full-year consolidated net sales. The impact of lower cargo volumes remained in some areas, but its impact on overall earnings was mixed. - FY2019-Q3Lower volumes in some areas, continued overall revenue growthAnnual report
「In the land transportation business, rail transportation volumes declined from the same period of the previous year, while volumes in the core truck transportation business increased and bulk container transportation volumes recovered. In the international multimodal transportation business, ocean transportation volumes declined, while air transportation volumes increased. As a result, net sales for the overall integrated logistics business were ¥74.3 billion, up 4.2% year on year.」
While declines continued in rail and ocean transportation volumes, truck, bulk container and air transportation increased or recovered, resulting in 4.2% year-on-year growth for the integrated logistics business overall. The impact of lower cargo volumes remained in some areas, but its impact on overall earnings was mixed. - FY2019-Q2RestatedAnnual report
「In the land transportation business, rail and bulk container transportation volumes declined from the same period of the previous year, while volumes in the core truck transportation business remained at roughly the same level. In the international multimodal transportation business, air transportation volumes increased, while ocean transportation volumes declined. As a result, net sales for the overall integrated logistics business were ¥48.398 billion, up 3.8% year on year.」
While declines continued in rail, bulk container and ocean transportation volumes, air transportation and warehousing and port transportation provided support, resulting in higher revenue for the integrated logistics business overall. The impact of lower cargo volumes remained evident in some areas, but its impact on overall earnings was mixed. - FY2019-Q1Lower volumes in some areas, overall improvementAnnual report
「In the land transportation business, volumes for truck, rail and bulk container transportation declined from the same period of the previous year. In the international multimodal transportation business, ocean transportation volumes declined, while air transportation volumes increased.」
Volumes declined year on year in land transportation and ocean transportation within international multimodal transportation, while warehousing, port transportation and air transportation increased. Consolidated net sales and ordinary profit rose. Although the impact of lower cargo volumes was evident in some areas, its impact on overall earnings was mixed. - FY2018RestatedAnnual report
「However, uncertainty surrounding overseas political developments remains high, with protectionist tendencies in the United States and geopolitical risks becoming more pronounced. Downside risks to economic activity also remain, and the outlook for the economy is expected to remain uncertain.」
Downside risks to economic activity stemming from overseas political developments and geopolitical risks remain. - FY2018-Q3Mixed impactAnnual report
「Consolidated net sales were ¥72.17 billion, up 4.8% year on year, due mainly to strong volumes in warehousing, port transportation and land transportation. Consolidated ordinary profit was ¥2.69 billion, down 7.4% year on year, due to taxes and other public charges recorded in connection with the acquisition of real estate, as well as higher one-time costs and depreciation expenses associated with the launch of new facilities.」
Cargo volumes recovered, led by warehousing, port transportation and land transportation, driving higher sales, while ordinary profit declined due to costs related to new facilities. The impact on earnings was mixed. - FY2017MaterialisedAnnual report
「As a result, consolidated net sales for the year were ¥91.332 billion, down 2.0% year on year, as domestic businesses, led by port transportation, recovered, but ocean transportation volumes in the international multimodal transportation business remained weak and sales declined due to the stronger yen, among other factors. Consolidated ordinary profit was ¥3.757 billion, down 16.6% year on year, due to taxes and other public charges and preparation costs recorded in connection with the opening of new facilities, as well as the absence of the reduction in expenses associated with the partial cancellation of the retirement benefit trust that contributed in the previous period,」
Weak ocean transportation volumes in international multimodal transportation and the impact of the stronger yen resulted in lower full-year revenue, with consolidated net sales down 2.0% year on year. - FY2017-Q3MaterialisedAnnual report
「Consolidated net sales were ¥68.861 billion, down 2.2% year on year, as the recovery in port cargo volumes was offset by weak ocean transportation volumes in international transportation and a decline in sales due to the stronger yen, among other factors. Consolidated ordinary profit was ¥2.904 billion, down 16.0% year on year, due to taxes and other public charges recorded in connection with the acquisition of real estate and foreign exchange losses resulting from the stronger yen, as well as the absence of the reduction in expenses associated with the partial cancellation of the retirement benefit trust that contributed in the previous period.」
The decline in cargo volumes and the impact of the stronger yen, which had become apparent by the previous quarter, continued through the third-quarter cumulative period, resulting in weak ocean transportation volumes, a 2.2% year-on-year decline in consolidated net sales and a 16.0% decline in consolidated ordinary profit. - FY2017-Q2MaterialisedAnnual report
「Consolidated net sales for the six months ended the second quarter were ¥45.134 billion, down 2.6% year on year, as the recovery in port transportation volumes was offset by weak land transportation volumes, while international transportation sales declined due to weak volumes and the impact of the stronger yen, among other factors.」
Revenue declined again due to weak land and international transportation volumes. Consolidated net sales were down 2.6% year on year. - FY2017-Q1MaterialisedAnnual report
「Consolidated net sales fell 1.3% year on year to ¥2,264.3 million. Although cargo volumes handled in port transportation recovered, land transportation remained weak, while international transportation saw lower sales due to weak cargo volumes and the impact of yen appreciation.」
In connection with the previously identified risks of lower cargo volumes and economic downside, weak handling volumes and lower sales in land and international transportation actually occurred during the quarter. - FY2016First statedAnnual report
「Downside risks to the economy remain in overseas markets, including a slowdown in emerging-market economies, particularly China, and a slowdown in oil-producing economies due to lower crude oil prices. The outlook for economic conditions is expected to remain uncertain.」
The company identifies a slowdown in overseas economies, lower cargo volumes in Japan and overseas, inventory adjustments by shippers, and requests for logistics rationalization as risks to earnings.