Uncertainty in developed-market economies and geopolitical risks in emerging markets

「Although the logistics disruptions caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz showed signs of gradually easing, geopolitical risk remains the greatest economic risk and the outlook continues to be uncertain.」

「In addition to the prolonged Russia-Ukraine war, tensions in the Middle East persisted, and crude oil prices remained elevated. Although the disruption to logistics caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz showed signs of gradually easing, geopolitical risk remained the greatest economic risk, and the outlook continued to be uncertain.」

「当第１四半期において、長引く中東情勢の影響等により海運市況やパナマ運河通峡に影響が生じ、当社においても、運航計画の見直しを余儀なくされました。」

「During the current consolidated fiscal year, the business environment surrounding the Group remained uncertain, with further deterioration in geopolitical risks in the Middle East, including Israel's invasion of Gaza and tensions with Iran, the prolonged situation in Ukraine and the continuing weakness of China's economy. Although the US economy remained firm, the momentum of personal consumption slowed and inflation persisted, causing signs of a slowdown in the pace of economic expansion. In addition, uncertainty over the policies of the new US administration, including additional tariffs, is raising concerns over downward pressure on the global economy.」

「2026年２月28日に米国・イスラエルによるイラン攻撃が行われ即時にホルムズ海峡の封鎖に至りました。」

「During the current consolidated fiscal year, the business environment surrounding the Group remained uncertain, with further deterioration in geopolitical risks in the Middle East, including Israel's invasion of Gaza and tensions with Iran, the prolonged situation in Ukraine and the continuing weakness of China's economy. Although the US economy remained firm, the momentum of personal consumption slowed and inflation persisted, causing signs of a slowdown in the pace of economic expansion. In addition, uncertainty over the policies of the new US administration, including additional tariffs, is raising concerns over downward pressure on the global economy.」

「During the current interim consolidated accounting period, the business environment surrounding the Group remained uncertain, with further deterioration in geopolitical risks in the Middle East, including Israel's invasion of Gaza and tensions with Iran, the prolonged situation in Ukraine and the continuing weakness of China's economy. Concerns over the outlook for the US economy intensified, causing sharp exchange-rate volatility, and the Nikkei 225 recorded its largest-ever point decline in August.」

「Among emerging economies, conditions in India remain favorable, while other countries, led by China, are expected to recover gradually. However, close attention should be paid to general downside risks to the economy, including persistently high inflation, recent turmoil in the financial sector and geopolitical risks.」

「Among emerging economies, conditions in India remain favorable, while China's economy and other countries are expected to recover gradually. However, continued attention is being paid to general global economic trends, including reviews and changes to supply chains associated with escalating tensions between the United States and China, route changes and changes in the vessel supply-demand balance resulting from reduced traffic through the Suez Canal due to the Middle East situation and through the Panama Canal due to drought.」

「Among emerging economies, conditions in India remain favorable, while other countries, led by China, are expected to recover gradually. However, continued attention will be paid to general economic trends, including persistently high inflation, reviews and changes to supply chains and changes in trade patterns associated with escalating tensions between the United States and China, as well as the expansion and prolongation of geopolitical risks.」

「The recovery of the Chinese economy following the reversal of its zero-COVID policy was delayed by changes in the response of Western countries to China, the sluggish domestic real estate market and other factors. With geopolitical risks also emerging, the dry bulk shipping market has stagnated contrary to the previous forecast.」

「Among emerging economies, conditions in India remain favorable, while other countries, led by China, are expected to recover gradually. However, close attention should be paid to general downside risks to the economy, including persistently high inflation, recent turmoil in the financial sector and geopolitical risks.」

「Inflation occurred due to past monetary easing by countries as an economic response to COVID-19 and the rise in resource prices following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Although inflation is gradually subsiding as the United States and Europe tighten monetary policy in response, trade has declined due to stagnant global economic growth, and dry bulk shipping market conditions have also stagnated.」

「During the cumulative second quarter of the current consolidated fiscal year, the global economy was in the process of recovering from the global economic crisis caused by the spread of COVID-19 and returning to normal economic activity. However, past monetary easing by countries as an economic response to COVID-19 and the rise in resource prices accompanying Russia's invasion of Ukraine have led to inflation, raising concerns over the risk of economic stagnation resulting from future monetary tightening to address inflation.」

「The world has been engulfed by a wave of global inflation due to the sharp rise in resource prices following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Although concerns remain over the economic outlook due to future interest rate increases as a measure by central banks, the economy is considered to be on the path toward stable development going forward.」

「Considering the supply-demand balance for vessels and global trade, market conditions are expected to remain firm, but close attention should be paid in 2022 to geopolitical issues, including Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and the outlook for China's zero-COVID policy.」

「Since spring 2021, China's economy has tended to slow as the government prioritized decarbonization policies, required production cuts in the steel industry and further restrained infrastructure investment. In other emerging economies, the recovery and development of the economy have also been disrupted by the Omicron variant and shortages of semiconductor components. However, with a view to China's economic revitalization following the Beijing Olympics as the Chinese government's policies change, trade volumes are on an expansion trend and markets have been performing steadily as volumes expand, despite concerns over geopolitical risks and higher crude oil prices.」

「In emerging-market and developing economies, China's economy slowed in the current second quarter following a steady recovery in the first quarter due to a resurgence of COVID-19, government restrictions on investment and semiconductor shortages, but is expected to gradually return to its previous level as restrictions are eased. However, close attention should be paid to market movements associated with the current property investment issue and the government's economic restrictions ahead of the Lunar New Year in February next year and the Beijing Winter Olympics.」

「The global spread of COVID-19 is also in the process of emerging from its worst phase as vaccination coverage expands. Although concerns about the future cannot be dispelled entirely, a strong recovery is considered to be continuing as the outlook has finally become somewhat more predictable.」

「In emerging-market and developing economies, China's economy is in the process of strong and sustained development, supported by government-led domestic-demand stimulus measures and domestic infrastructure development policies. In Russia, Brazil, ASEAN countries and elsewhere, the economy is also recovering and advancing steadily, including a rebound from the impact of COVID-19.」

「Japan's economy, which had deteriorated sharply due to COVID-19, improved significantly in the previous quarter. In the current period, the recovery in industrial production, including automobiles, has continued in line with economic recoveries in China and other countries, but an economic downturn in the second half is also a concern due to the impact of a third wave of COVID-19 infections.」

「In emerging-market and developing economies, China's economy deteriorated sharply from the end of last year through the first half of this year, but industrial production turned higher year on year as early as April due to government-led domestic-demand stimulus measures and subsequently continued to recover steadily during the current quarter. In other emerging economies, the economy deteriorated sharply across the board in April, but economic measures taken by each country have taken effect, trade volumes are gradually recovering, and markets have also recovered as volumes have expanded.」

「In emerging-market and developing economies, China's economy deteriorated sharply from the end of last year through the first half of this year, but industrial production turned higher year on year as early as April due to domestic-demand stimulus measures led by the government, showing a rapid economic recovery. In other emerging economies, the economy deteriorated sharply across the board in April, but measures taken by each country have taken effect, and economic activity has gradually been returning in May and June.」

「As for the current global economy, even the US economy, where year-on-year GDP growth had remained steadily positive through the previous period, has turned sharply negative in developed economies, while all other EU countries, including the United Kingdom, have also deteriorated sharply. Furthermore, growth has turned negative in all emerging economies, including the BRIS countries and Southeast Asia.」

「Meanwhile, Japan's economy is showing signs of improvement, supported by strong domestic demand, but is also slowing due to concerns about the future of the global economy arising from US-China trade friction, geopolitical risks, natural disasters and concerns over a worsening novel infectious disease. A recovery is expected going forward in line with the global economic trend described above.」

「Overall, the global economy is currently considered to remain at a standstill due to the risk of global economic stagnation described above and geopolitical risks, including those in the Middle East.」

「In other emerging economies, India, Brazil, Russia, Turkey and others are expected to emerge from their temporary recessions and achieve further development. Overall, however, the global economy is currently considered to be at a standstill due to the risk of stagnation described above and geopolitical risks, including those in the Middle East.」

「The effects of trade friction with the United States and domestic policies have gradually emerged in the Chinese economy. The government's domestic-demand stimulus measures, prompted by concern over the sharp deterioration from the second half of 2018 to early 2019, and economic stimulus measures arising from the temporary easing of trade friction with the United States are expected to produce results sooner or later.」

「In emerging-market and developing economies, China's economic development appears to have continued steadily, but the effects of trade friction have gradually begun to emerge, while further policy support is expected to continue.」

「Concerns over trade friction between the United States and China, the economies of EU countries and BREXIT continue, but overall conditions were favorable, supported by the steady development of the US economy. In emerging-market and developing economies, China's economic development appears to have continued steadily, with policy support expected to remain firm. Among other emerging economies, energy exporters continued to improve gradually, while some importing countries slowed. Economic activity slowed sharply, particularly in Argentina, Brazil and Turkey.」

「In developed economies, there were concerns about the United States' protectionist trade tendencies, the economies of EU countries and BREXIT, but overall conditions were favorable, supported by the steady development of the US economy. In emerging economies, China's economic development continued steadily, policy support is expected to remain firm, and conditions have improved further as economic growth rates have stabilized.」

「Geopolitical risks in Syria, North Korea, the Middle East and elsewhere remain, but overall, the economy continues on a favorable expansion trend, with further growth expected to continue.」

「Geopolitical risks, including those in the Middle East, remain, but overall, the economy continues on a moderate expansion trend.」

「Geopolitical risks continue in some regions, but overall, the economy remains on a moderate expansion trend, with further growth expected to continue.」

「Geopolitical risks continue in some regions, but overall, the economy remains on a moderate expansion trend, with further growth expected.」

「Geopolitical risks in Syria, North Korea, the Middle East, and elsewhere remain, but the overall economy continues to maintain a trend of moderate expansion, and further growth is expected.」

「During the first 3 quarters of the current consolidated fiscal year, the outlook for economic growth in developed markets became uncertain due to mixed expectations and concerns about the future of the EU and about the new Trump administration in the United States. Although emerging markets faced geopolitical risks in the Middle East and elsewhere, the overall economy improved as China's growth forecast was revised upward amid expectations of continued policy support, while resource prices rose and stabilized. Brazil and Russia also showed stronger growth. As a result, emerging markets as a whole maintained a trend of moderate expansion, and the global economy achieved moderate growth overall.」