Market volatility risk from excess vessel capacity and declining cargo volumes

「しかしながらインフレ、景気悪化による世界的な需要減退、来年も今年と同程度の新造船（約200隻）が予定されており、マーケットが良い限りはスクラップが進まないことを考慮するとマーケットが落ちることも考えられます。」

「The market for oceangoing dry bulk vessels rose further in the July–September 2026 quarter, led by the Pacific. …Supply tightened as vessel turnaround times in the Pacific slowed. In addition, the number of vessels waiting at ports in China increased significantly from July through September, partly because of the high number of typhoons. With exports from the Middle East and the Black Sea disrupted, diversification of import sources also generated a tonne-mile effect. …Approximately 200 newbuilds, about the same number as this year, are scheduled for delivery next year. Given that scrapping is unlikely to progress as long as the market remains favorable, the market could also decline.」

「On 28 February 2026, the United States and Israel attacked Iran, immediately resulting in the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. …Although the situation in Iran has emerged as an uncertain factor in an extremely strong market, the oceangoing dry bulk shipping market in the January–March 2026 quarter remained stable at a high level in the short term, with positive and negative factors offsetting each other.」

「The oceangoing dry bulk shipping market in the July–September 2025 quarter rose sharply, driven by the recovery of China's crude steel production, stockpiling of South American soybeans by China, firm minor-bulk cargo movements and increased coal imports by China, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan due to the impact of exceptionally hot weather in Asia.」

「In the first half, the market remained above the level of the same period last year, supported by increased ton-miles from diversions around the Cape of Good Hope due to the conditions in the Suez and Panama canals, which emerged and worsened last year, as well as stable shipments of iron ore and coal resulting from stable weather in the Southern Hemisphere due to El Niño. In the second half, the market began to soften in October and declined toward the end of December. While the market remained at historically high levels in the fourth quarter of the previous year, it was approximately at normal levels in the fourth quarter of the current year.」

「The oceangoing dry bulk shipping market remained at a higher level than last year through the current interim consolidated accounting period, supported by increased ton-miles resulting from diversions around the Cape of Good Hope due to the conditions in the Suez and Panama canals that emerged and worsened at the end of last year, as well as the impact of weather in the Southern Hemisphere caused by El Niño, including stable shipments of iron ore and coal. In the outlook for the bulk carrier market in the second half, manufacturing, which the Chinese government is prioritising, remains strong and is partly offsetting the loss of steel demand caused by the housing downturn. However, many steel mills still continue operating despite being in the red, creating a risk that further declines in steel prices could affect iron ore prices as well.」

「Against this backdrop, the oceangoing dry bulk shipping market declined through mid-February amid a global economic slowdown caused by inflation and high interest rates, seasonal stagnation in the Chinese economy associated with the Lunar New Year, increased vessel utilisation due to reduced port congestion, and the prolonged Russian invasion of Ukraine. However, the market is gradually recovering due to the recovery of the Chinese economy, a decline in vessel supply, and the entry into force of new environmental regulations for vessels.」

「Against this backdrop, the oceangoing dry bulk shipping market is considered to be improving due to the recovery of the Chinese economy amid a global slowdown caused by inflation and high interest rates, congestion in the Panama Canal, increased shipments from South America, longer voyages resulting from the diversion around the Suez Canal, and further reductions in sailing speeds as environmental regulations become more stringent. However, there are also concerns about adverse effects from slower economic growth accompanying global monetary tightening and the future impact of geopolitical risks, requiring continued responses to various risks.」

「The global economy during the six-month period ended in the second quarter is still considered to be recovering from the global economic crisis caused by COVID-19 toward normal conditions. However, the recovery of the Chinese economy following the reversal of its zero-COVID policy was delayed by Western countries' de-risking measures toward China, including supply-chain reviews, and the worsening domestic real estate problem. With the added geopolitical risk from the prolonged Russia-Ukraine war, the oceangoing dry bulk shipping market stagnated in the first half of the current fiscal year, but has been improving in the second half due to increased imports of raw materials accompanying the Chinese government's economic stimulus measures.」

「The recovery of the Chinese economy following the reversal of its zero-COVID policy was delayed by changes in the response of Western countries to China, the sluggish domestic real estate market and other factors. With geopolitical risks also emerging, the dry bulk shipping market has stagnated contrary to the previous forecast.」

「Against this backdrop, the oceangoing dry bulk shipping market declined through mid-February amid a global economic slowdown caused by inflation and high interest rates, seasonal stagnation in the Chinese economy associated with the Lunar New Year, increased vessel utilisation due to reduced port congestion, and the prolonged Russian invasion of Ukraine. However, the market is gradually recovering due to the recovery of the Chinese economy, a decline in vessel supply, and the entry into force of new environmental regulations for vessels.」

「Against this backdrop for the global economy, the ocean-going dry bulk market has continued to decline from the previous period due to a global economic slowdown caused by inflation, deterioration in the Chinese economy and the prolonged Russian invasion of Ukraine, among other factors.」

「Against this backdrop for the global economy, the ocean-going dry bulk market entered a period of adjustment in the latter half of May, and the adjustment continued through the first half of September, but the market is believed to have gradually recovered since then, partly due to seasonal factors. Firm conditions are expected to continue, but new environmental regulations will take effect in January 2023, and the utilization rate of existing vessels is expected to decline due to slower vessel speeds and scrapping under the regulations. Although firm market conditions are also expected, the emergence of new COVID-19 variants and the resulting economic instability, the direction of China's zero-COVID policy and economic measures, and future geopolitical risks could cause the deterioration of the global economy to continue or worsen beyond the scenario described above, making preparation and countermeasures necessary to address various future risks.」

「Against this backdrop for the global economy, the ocean-going dry bulk market entered a period of adjustment in the latter half of May and is assessing its direction. The market is expected to remain firm as a result of China's economic stimulus measures, but the emergence of new COVID-19 variants and the resulting economic instability, the direction of China's zero-COVID policy and economic measures, and future geopolitical risks could cause the deterioration of the global economy to continue or worsen beyond the scenario described above」

「The ocean-going dry bulk market underwent an adjustment through the first half of February, then turned to an upward trend as usual. The market is expected to remain firm in and after the following fiscal year, but is still recovering from an economic crisis on a scale among the largest since the end of World War II caused by the spread of COVID-19, and the direction of the Chinese government's zero-COVID measures is expected to have a significant impact. Depending on future geopolitical risks, the deterioration of the global economy could continue or worsen beyond the scenario described above, making preparation and countermeasures necessary to address various future risks.」

「The ocean-going dry bulk market remained on track through late October, then declined and entered a period of adjustment. In the first half of the next quarter, the market is expected to undergo an adjustment as the Chinese economy slows due to the Chinese New Year and the Winter Olympics in Beijing, but the market is expected to remain firm thereafter, including a rebound.」

「Against this backdrop for the global economy, the ocean-going dry bulk market remained firm in the second quarter, as it did in the first quarter, due to increased trade volumes resulting from the post-COVID-19 rebound. The market is also immediately following an economic crisis on a scale among the largest since the end of World War II caused by the spread of COVID-19, and depending on the global infection situation, there are concerns that the global economy could stagnate or deteriorate again」

「The market for ocean-going dry bulk vessels was at its worst in the first half of the previous fiscal year due to the COVID-19 pandemic, but gradually rose from the second half of that fiscal year through the beginning of the current fiscal year. During the cumulative consolidated period of the first quarter, it emerged from the recession of the past 10 years and began recovering toward the normal market conditions seen during boom periods.」

「However, from the second half of 2020, the shipping market recovered immediately and then rose sharply, due to the rebound from the COVID-19 pandemic and the impact of increased seasonal coal and grain transport, among other factors. Based on the supply-demand balance for vessels and global trade, the market is expected to remain firm.」

「Against this backdrop for the global economy, the ocean-going dry bulk market deteriorated sharply in the first quarter of the consolidated fiscal period as the deterioration of the global economy reduced trade volumes, but recovered to levels close to normal in the second quarter of the consolidated fiscal period and has recovered to normal levels this quarter.」

「Against this backdrop for the global economy, the ocean-going dry bulk market deteriorated sharply in the previous quarter as the deterioration of the global economy reduced trade volumes, but is recovering this quarter toward levels close to normal.」

「Against this backdrop for the global economy, the ocean-going dry bulk market is still recovering from the worst conditions experienced since the Baltic Index began in early 2016. However, the world is in the midst of an economic crisis on a scale among the largest since the end of World War II due to the spread of COVID-19. Depending on how the virus develops globally, the deterioration of the global economy could last longer than under the scenario described above, making sufficient preparation and countermeasures necessary to address various future risks.」

「However, the shipping market declined due to the impact of COVID-19 and other factors, and the global economy contracted. Although the market was basically on a recovery trend, the global spread of the disease was still continuing as of July 2020, leaving the outlook uncertain.」

「Against this backdrop for the global economy, the ocean-going dry bulk market is still recovering from the worst conditions experienced since the Baltic Index began in early 2016. Recovery is considered to have stalled due to concerns about the future of the global economy, geopolitical risks, natural disasters and other factors. Over time, the balance between projected vessel deliveries and expanding trade volumes accompanying global economic growth, as well as expected improvement in the vessel supply-demand balance resulting from regulations on the sulfur content of marine fuel oil taking effect on 1 January 2020, are expected to affect future market conditions.」

「The ocean-going dry bulk market is still recovering from the unprecedentedly severe conditions experienced since the Baltic Index began in early 2016, but recovery has currently stalled due to concerns about the future of the global economy described above.」

「The market for ocean-going dry bulk vessels is still recovering from the unprecedentedly severe conditions experienced since the Baltic Index began in early 2016, but recovery has currently stalled due to concerns about the future of the global economy described above.」

「The market for ocean-going dry bulk vessels is still recovering from the unprecedentedly severe conditions experienced since the Baltic Index began in February 2016. Over time, continued improvement in the vessel supply-demand balance is expected from projected vessel deliveries, expanding trade volumes accompanying economic growth, and further improvement resulting from policy measures and efforts to reduce environmental impact in China and other emerging economies.」

「The market for ocean-going dry bulk vessels is still recovering from the unprecedentedly severe conditions experienced since the Baltic Index began in February 2016. The vessel supply-demand balance is expected to continue improving over time as China and other emerging economies develop.」

「The market for ocean-going dry bulk vessels is finally beginning to emerge gradually from the bottom, but has not yet achieved a full recovery. Further improvement in market conditions is expected to depend on continued global economic expansion, ongoing scrapping of aging vessels and the absence of a sharp increase in newbuilding orders.」

「The market for ocean-going dry bulk vessels has been gradually improving since the cumulative consolidated period of the second quarter, but has not yet achieved a full recovery. Further market recovery is expected as the supply-demand balance improves through expanded trade volumes accompanying global economic growth and a continued reduction in the effective supply of vessels.」

「The market for ocean-going dry bulk vessels is considered to still be emerging from the unprecedentedly severe conditions experienced since the Baltic Index began in February 2016. However, the vessel supply-demand balance is believed to be improving as global economic growth, increased coal-fired power generation associated with reduced reliance on nuclear power, seasonal demand for coal transport and increased grain transport support demand.」

「The market for ocean-going dry bulk vessels is gradually emerging from the unprecedentedly severe conditions experienced since the Baltic Index began in February 2016. Further improvement in the vessel supply-demand balance will be required over time as China and other emerging economies develop.」

「The market for ocean-going dry bulk vessels is finally showing signs of gradually emerging from the bottom, but has not yet achieved a full recovery. Further improvement in market conditions will require an improved balance between seaborne transport volumes and vessel capacity through continued global economic expansion and scrapping of aging, uneconomic vessels.」

「The market for ocean-going dry bulk vessels has been gradually improving amid repeated fluctuations, but has not yet achieved a full recovery, partly because of seasonal weakness. Further improvement in the market will require an improved supply-demand balance through continued expansion in global trade volumes and increased vessel scrapping.」

「The market for ocean-going dry bulk vessels has been gradually improving since the summer, but has not yet achieved a full recovery and appears to be in a period of consolidation. Improvement in the supply-demand balance will require an expansion in trade volumes accompanying further global economic growth, together with continued scrapping of aging vessels.」

「The market for ocean-going dry bulk vessels has recovered by approximately 2.5 times from its mid-February low. This is believed to reflect seasonal increases in grain exports from South America, declines in domestic iron ore and coal production in China resulting from its policy of reducing excess capacity, and increased imports to make up the shortfall. Quantitatively, however, the market has still not fully escaped from its low level.」

「The market for ocean-going dry bulk vessels set a record low for the Baltic Dry Index. In addition to the excess vessel supply through the previous year, excess capacity was amplified as deliveries exceeded scrapping. Cargo volumes also declined, partly because China and India substantially reduced their coal imports.」