Uncertainty Over the Outlook for Exchange Rates and the Global Economy

「金利上昇の長期化に警戒」

「During the interim consolidated accounting period, from 1 April 2026 to 30 September 2026, Japan's economy saw corporate earnings and employment conditions remain firm and wage increases continue. However, as inflation became entrenched against a backdrop of rising resource prices and a weaker yen, interest rates followed an upward trend as monetary policy normalized.」

「During the current consolidated fiscal year, inflation became entrenched in Japan against a backdrop of higher resource prices, yen depreciation and economic fragmentation. Corporate earnings and personal income became increasingly polarised, and although wages began to rise, real wages remained negative. Globally, geopolitical risks rose rapidly as tensions between the US and China and in Ukraine and the Middle East intensified. Supply chains remained disrupted, monetary tightening continued in various countries, and US tariff policies remained in place. Amid concerns about a global economic slowdown and heightened uncertainty, the situation continued to require even closer attention to the impact on Japan's economy.」

「During the current interim consolidated accounting period, inflation intensified further in Japan against a backdrop of higher resource prices and yen depreciation, corporate earnings and personal income became increasingly polarised, and although wages began to rise, real wages remained negative. Globally, monetary tightening continued in various countries and concerns about a global economic slowdown intensified. In addition to geopolitical risks associated with heightened tensions in the Middle East, uncertainty about the outlook increased following the US tariff policy, and the situation continued to require even closer attention to the impact on Japan's economy.」

「During the current interim consolidated accounting period, inflation intensified further in Japan due to higher resource prices and yen depreciation, corporate earnings and personal income became increasingly polarised, and although wages began to rise, real wages remained negative. Globally, monetary tightening continued in various countries and concerns about a global economic slowdown emerged. The uncertain environment continued, requiring close attention to the impact on Japan's economy of developments in the international financial and capital markets, together with geopolitical risks.」

「The global economy also remained uncertain as geopolitical risks increased due to the prolonged situation in Ukraine and tensions between the US and China, while concerns about an economic slowdown emerged as countries pursued monetary tightening. The impact on Japan's economy therefore remained uncertain.」

「During the second quarter of the current consolidated cumulative period, Japan's economy moved toward normalisation as restrictions on activity in response to COVID-19 were eased and economic activity normalised. Meanwhile, corporate earnings became increasingly polarised due to higher resource prices and yen depreciation, while real wages remained negative as prices rose. In the global economy, geopolitical risks increased as the situation in Ukraine and tensions between the US and China continued, while concerns about an economic slowdown emerged as countries pursued monetary tightening. The impact on Japan's economy therefore remained uncertain.」

「During the first quarter of the current consolidated cumulative period, Japan's economy followed a moderate recovery trend as restrictions on activity in response to COVID-19 were eased and socioeconomic activity moved toward normalisation. Meanwhile, corporate earnings became increasingly polarised due to higher resource prices and yen depreciation, and real wages adjusted for inflation remained negative. In the global economy, geopolitical risks increased as the situation in Ukraine and tensions between the US and China continued, while concerns about an economic slowdown emerged as countries pursued monetary tightening. The impact on Japan's economy therefore remained uncertain.」

「The global economy also remained in a difficult condition requiring close attention to risks that could contribute to Japan's economic stagnation, including the prolonged situation in Ukraine and US-China trade friction, and successive interest-rate hikes in various countries in response to global inflation, which left the financial and capital markets unpredictable.」

「During the third quarter of the current consolidated cumulative period, restrictions on social and economic activity resulting from COVID-19 were eased and the economy moved toward normalisation, but the outlook remained uncertain. Corporate earnings became increasingly polarised due to higher resource prices and yen depreciation, while higher prices increased household burdens and real wages continued to decline. The global economy also remained in a difficult condition requiring close attention to risks that could contribute to Japan's economic stagnation, including the prolonged situation in Ukraine and US-China trade friction, and successive interest-rate hikes in various countries in response to global inflation, which left the financial and capital markets unpredictable.」

「During the second quarter of the current consolidated cumulative period, Japan's economy moved toward normalisation as restrictions on social and economic activity resulting from the spread of COVID-19 were eased through vaccination and other measures. However, the seventh wave occurred, leaving the outlook uncertain. Corporate earnings became increasingly polarised due to higher resource prices and yen depreciation, while household burdens increased due to higher prices. The global economy also remained in a difficult condition requiring close attention to risks that could contribute to Japan's economic stagnation, including the prolonged situation in Ukraine and US-China trade friction, and successive interest-rate hikes in various countries in response to global inflation, which left the financial and capital markets unpredictable.」

「However, corporate earnings became increasingly polarised due to higher resource prices and yen depreciation, while household burdens increased due to higher prices in personal consumption, outpacing the recovery in employment and income conditions, and uncertainty continued. In the global economy, divisions between countries deepened following the deterioration of the situation in Ukraine, US-China trade friction was prolonged, and central banks successively raised interest rates in response to global inflation. The financial and capital markets therefore remained unpredictable, and close attention continued to be necessary regarding risks to Japan's economic stagnation.」

「The global economy also remained uncertain, as did Japan's economy. Inflation became increasingly pronounced due to soaring prices of energy and other resources, and close attention continued to be necessary regarding risks to Japan's economic stagnation, including the impact of US-China trade friction, volatility in the financial and capital markets, and the deteriorating situation in Ukraine at the end of the current consolidated fiscal year.」

「The global economy also remained uncertain, as did Japan's economy, and close attention continued to be necessary regarding risks to Japan's economic stagnation, including the impact of US-China trade friction, volatility in the financial and capital markets, and soaring energy prices.」

「During the second quarter of the current consolidated cumulative period, although COVID-19 vaccinations were being advanced, fourth and fifth waves occurred and corporate earnings and personal consumption became increasingly polarised due in part to the issuance of states of emergency and other measures in many prefectures. The global economy also remained uncertain, as did Japan's economy, and close attention continued to be necessary regarding risks to Japan's economic stagnation, including the impact of US-China trade friction, volatility in the financial and capital markets, and soaring energy prices.」

「Although COVID-19 vaccinations had begun, a fourth wave occurred and corporate earnings and personal consumption became increasingly polarised while the end of the pandemic remained uncertain. The global economy also remained uncertain, as did Japan's economy, and close attention continued to be necessary regarding risks to Japan's economic stagnation, including the impact of US-China trade friction and volatility in the financial and capital markets.」

「During the current consolidated fiscal year (1 April 2020 to 31 March 2021), Japan's economy was in a difficult condition as the impact of the global spread of COVID-19 continued, while corporate earnings declined, personal consumption remained sluggish and the employment environment deteriorated.」

「During the third quarter of the current consolidated cumulative period, Japan's economy remained in a difficult condition as the impact of the global spread of COVID-19 continued, while corporate earnings declined, personal consumption remained sluggish and the employment environment deteriorated. Although personal consumption showed signs of recovery as economic activity gradually resumed and various policies took effect, the end of the pandemic remained uncertain. The situation continued to require close attention to economic developments in Japan and overseas and volatility in the financial and capital markets, leaving little room for complacency.」

「Although personal consumption showed signs of recovery as levels of socioeconomic activity were gradually raised, the difficult and uncertain environment is expected to continue.」

「During the first quarter of the current consolidated cumulative period, Japan's economy was in an extremely severe condition as economic activity stagnated due to the global spread of COVID-19 and various requests for voluntary restraint and business closures to prevent its spread, and the economic downturn continued. Although economic activity showed signs of gradually resuming, the difficult and uncertain environment is expected to continue for the time being.」

「However, in addition to the impact of the prolonged US-China trade friction and volatility in the financial and capital markets, business sentiment deteriorated as the COVID-19 pandemic spread, and uncertainty continued.」

「However, the outlook remained uncertain due to the impact of the prolonged US-China trade friction and volatility in the financial and capital markets, as well as the emergence of geopolitical risks in East Asia and the Middle East.」

「However, the outlook remained uncertain due to the impact of the prolonged US-China trade friction and volatility in the financial and capital markets.」

「However, the outlook remained uncertain due to the impact of the prolonged US-China trade friction, the slowdown in the Chinese economy and volatility in the financial and capital markets.」

「In addition to large-scale natural disasters such as torrential rain observed across Japan and the Hokkaido earthquake, trade friction based on protectionist trade policies by the US and China and the impact of a slowdown in the Chinese economy intensified concerns about an economic downturn. Close attention to these developments continued to be necessary.」

「The impact of large-scale natural disasters, including torrential rain observed across Japan and the Hokkaido earthquake, and the downside risk to the global economy from trade friction based on protectionist trade policies by the US and China continued. Concerns remained about the impact on the domestic economy, and close attention to these developments continued to be necessary.」

「However, the global economy as a whole continued to face many unstable factors, including the impact of large-scale natural disasters such as record rainfall and the Hokkaido earthquake, the risk of trade friction arising from US protectionist policies, the Brexit issue, and concerns about an economic slowdown in China and other emerging Asian economies. Close attention to these developments remained necessary.」

「However, the global economy as a whole continued to face many unstable factors, including the risk of trade friction arising from US protectionist policies, the Brexit issue, and concerns about an economic slowdown in China and other emerging Asian economies. Close attention to these developments remained necessary.」

「However, the global economy as a whole continued to face many unstable factors, including uncertainty surrounding US administration policies, moves toward normalisation of monetary policy, the Brexit issue, the outlook for economies including China and other emerging markets, and rising geopolitical risks. Concerns remained about the impact on the domestic economy, and close attention to these developments continued to be necessary.」

「However, the global economy as a whole continued to face many unstable factors, including uncertainty surrounding US administration policies, moves toward normalisation of monetary policy, the Brexit issue, the outlook for economies including China and other emerging markets, and rising geopolitical risks. Concerns remained about the impact on the domestic economy, and close attention to these developments continued to be necessary.」

「However, concerns continued about the impact on the domestic economy of increasing uncertainty in overseas economies, including uncertainty surrounding US administration policies, moves toward normalisation of monetary policy, the Brexit issue and the outlook for economies including China and other emerging markets. Close attention to these developments remained necessary.」

「In the foreign exchange market, the yen shifted from an appreciating trend to a weaker trend after the US presidential election, raising concerns about the impact on corporate earnings. There were also concerns about slower economic growth in China and other emerging economies, developments toward Brexit, and uncertainty surrounding the policies of the new US administration. The impact of these factors on the global economy required close attention, and uncertainty about the outlook continued.」

「In the foreign exchange market, the yen has been trending weaker since mid-November after previously following an appreciating trend. The resulting impact on corporate earnings, concerns about a slowdown in the global economy, particularly China, Brexit, and the impact on the global economy of the transition to the new US administration were among the matters requiring close attention, and uncertainty about the outlook continued.」