Uncertainty in the Global Economy Caused by US-China Trade Tensions

「Geopolitical risks, including the situation in the Middle East, the situation in Ukraine and tensions in Japan-China relations, continued, while inbound demand remained firm, partly due to the weaker yen. However, risks of downward pressure on economic conditions continued, including the impact of rising prices on personal consumption, US trade policy, and fluctuations in financial and capital markets and foreign exchange rates.」

「The impact of the Trump tariffs, the largest source of uncertainty, remains difficult to foresee. However, the International Monetary Fund's July forecast for global economic growth was revised upward by 0.2 percentage points from its April outlook, reflecting factors including stronger-than-expected front-loading of economic activity ahead of tariff increases and a lower US average effective tariff rate than the level announced in April.」

「Following the formation of the Trump administration in the United States, the conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza appeared to be showing signs of ending. However, tariff policies were shaking the world, creating a situation that required close attention.」

「During the interim consolidated accounting period, the global economy continued to face geopolitical risks. The situation in Ukraine and the conflict in the Gaza Strip showed no prospect of ending, while a further escalation of tensions in the Middle East became a reality.」

「During the cumulative third quarter under review, Japan's economic activity moved toward normalization as COVID-19 was reclassified as a Class 5 infectious disease and inbound demand recovered following the lifting of restrictions on activities and travel. However, the outlook for the domestic and global economies remained uncertain due to downside risks from soaring resource prices caused by heightened geopolitical risks, rising domestic labor costs, the rapid depreciation of the yen, the prolonged situation in Ukraine, the conflict in the Gaza Strip and global monetary tightening.」

「During the cumulative second quarter under review, Japan's economic activity moved toward normalization as COVID-19 was reclassified as a Class 5 infectious disease and inbound demand recovered following the lifting of restrictions on activities and travel. However, the outlook for the domestic and global economies remained uncertain due to downside risks from soaring resource prices caused by heightened geopolitical risks, rising domestic labor costs, the rapid depreciation of the yen, the prolonged situation in Ukraine and global monetary tightening.」

「During the first quarter of the current consolidated cumulative period, economic activity in Japan moved toward normalization as inbound demand recovered following the change in the classification of COVID-19 as a Class 5 infectious disease, the lifting of restrictions on activities and the removal of travel restrictions. However, the economic outlook in Japan and overseas remains uncertain because of downside risks from persistently high global resource prices, rising domestic labor costs, the sharp depreciation of the yen, the prolonged situation in Ukraine and global monetary tightening.」

「During the cumulative third quarter under review, Japan's economic activity began to recover as inbound demand returned following the lifting of restrictions on activities and travel restrictions related to COVID-19. However, the outlook remained uncertain due to the spread of infections in China following a policy shift, the situation in Ukraine and soaring resource prices caused by the rapid depreciation of the yen.」

「During the cumulative second quarter under review, Japan's economic activity began to recover after restrictions on activities related to COVID-19 were lifted. However, the outlook remained uncertain due to concerns about a renewed spread of infections and soaring resource prices caused by the situation in Ukraine and the rapid depreciation of the yen.」

「During the cumulative first quarter under review, Japan's economy showed signs of recovery as COVID-19 entered a lull. However, uncertainty remained as the prolonged situation in Ukraine, city lockdowns in China due to the spread of COVID-19, soaring global resource and energy prices, and the rapid depreciation of the yen continued to have an impact, compounded by a sharp increase in domestic infections during the seventh wave of COVID-19 from July this year.」

「While various economic policies were being advanced globally, led by Western countries where vaccination programs were progressing, and some recovery was emerging, the outlook for economic conditions remained extremely uncertain due to the escalating situation in Ukraine and the impact of lockdowns following the explosive spread of COVID-19 centered in Shanghai, China.」

「While various economic policies were being advanced globally, led by the United States and China, where vaccination programs were progressing, and Japan was beginning to recover to some extent as vaccinations spread, concerns grew about a renewed spread of infections in a sixth wave following the emergence of the new Omicron variant. The outlook for economic conditions therefore remained extremely uncertain.」

「During the cumulative second quarter under review, Japan's economy remained difficult as the impact of the prolonged spread of COVID-19 continued, compounded by weak inbound demand and tighter restrictions on personal activities and business operations resulting from repeated declarations of a state of emergency. While various economic policies were being advanced globally, led by the United States and China, where vaccination programs were progressing, Japan was also beginning to recover to some extent as vaccinations spread. However, the outlook for economic conditions remained extremely uncertain.」

「During the cumulative first quarter under review, Japan's economy remained difficult as the impact of the prolonged spread of COVID-19 continued, compounded by weak inbound demand and tighter restrictions on personal activities and business operations resulting from repeated declarations of a state of emergency. Although various economic policies were being advanced globally, led by the United States and China, where vaccination programs were progressing, and some recovery was emerging, the outlook for economic conditions remained extremely uncertain.」

「During the cumulative third quarter under review, Japan's domestic economic activity was beginning to recover, partly due to the government's measures to prevent the spread of COVID-19 and raise the level of economic activity after the state of emergency was lifted in May 2020, as well as the effects of various policies. However, following the renewed spread of COVID-19 from the end of the year, there were still no signs that the pandemic was coming under control. The impact of the spread of infections, including repeated lockdowns in European countries, and fluctuations in the global economy remained substantial, and the outlook for economic conditions was expected to remain unpredictable for the time being.」

「During the cumulative second quarter under review, Japan's economy faced an extremely difficult business environment due to the spread of COVID-19. Although economic activity gradually resumed after the state of emergency was lifted, the impact of the spread of COVID-19 in Japan and overseas, including the start of lockdowns in European countries, and fluctuations in the global economy remained substantial. The outlook is expected to remain unpredictable for the time being.」

「During the cumulative first quarter under review, Japan's economy remained in an extremely difficult situation as the COVID-19 pandemic continued to cause a sharp decline in foreign tourists and a rapid deterioration in domestic consumption. Efforts continued to balance infection prevention with the maintenance of economic activity.」

「During the cumulative third quarter under review, Japan's economy continued to see improvements in employment and income conditions. However, concerns arose regarding consumer sentiment due to the impact of uncertainty in the global economy resulting from US-China trade friction, the UK's withdrawal from the EU and developments in the Middle East, as well as the impact of the consumption tax rate increase in October last year and adverse weather caused by a major typhoon. The outlook therefore remained uncertain.」

「During the cumulative second quarter under review, Japan's economy continued to see improvements in employment and income conditions. However, the outlook remained uncertain, partly due to the impact of uncertainty in the global economy against a backdrop of intensified US-China trade friction, the decline in the renminbi, the UK's issue of leaving the EU and the decline in the pound.」

「During the cumulative first quarter under review, Japan's economy continued to see improvements in employment and income conditions. However, the outlook remained uncertain, partly due to the impact of uncertainty in the global economy resulting from the escalation of US-China trade friction.」