Uncertainty over the outlook due to overseas economic and policy developments and volatility in financial and capital markets

「Meanwhile, complex geopolitical risks, including heightened tensions in the Middle East and uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy, have not been dispelled. Energy and resource prices have continued to rise, with crude oil prices at one point surging above $110 per barrel. Labor shortages have also remained severe. In addition, monetary normalization has entered a full-fledged phase, with the Bank of Japan raising its policy rate to 1.0% in June 2026, reaching its highest level in approximately 30 years. Concern over further rate hikes has also intensified, and the economic outlook remains uncertain.」

「During the interim accounting period, Japan's economy remained on a gradual recovery trend, supported by improvements in employment and income conditions. However, resource prices remained elevated due to prolonged geopolitical risks in Europe and the Middle East and the delayed recovery of the Chinese economy. In addition, concerns increased over political developments in various countries, prolonged inflation, and interest rate trends associated with the transition in monetary policy, and the economic outlook remained uncertain.」

「During the fiscal year, Japan's economy was on a gradual recovery trend, supported by improvements in employment and income conditions. However, resource prices rose under the influence of the unstable global situation, including conflicts in Europe and the Middle East and the slowdown of the Chinese economy. In addition, uncertainty increased regarding the impact of political conditions in various countries and trends in prices and interest rates, and the economic outlook remained uncertain.」

「During the interim accounting period, Japan's economy was on a gradual recovery trend, supported by improvements in employment and income conditions. However, resource prices rose under the influence of the unstable global situation, including conflicts in Europe and the Middle East and the slowdown of the Chinese economy. In addition, uncertainty increased regarding the impact of political conditions in various countries and trends in prices and interest rates, and the economic outlook remained uncertain.」

「During the cumulative third quarter period, Japan's economy remained uncertain in terms of its outlook, as resource prices soared amid the unstable global situation, including weak consumer sentiment caused by rising prices, the rapid depreciation of the yen, and the prolonged Russia-Ukraine situation.」

「During the cumulative second quarter period, Japan's economy showed signs of moving toward normalization as COVID-19 was reclassified to Category 5. However, the economic outlook remained uncertain due to weak consumer sentiment caused by rising prices, the rapid depreciation of the yen, and soaring resource prices resulting from the unstable global situation, including the prolonged Russia-Ukraine situation.」

「During the cumulative first quarter period, Japan's economy showed signs of moving toward normalization as COVID-19 was reclassified to Category 5. However, the economic outlook remained uncertain due to weak consumer sentiment caused by rising prices, the rapid depreciation of the yen, and soaring resource prices against the backdrop of the prolonged Russia-Ukraine situation.」

「During the fiscal year, Japan's economy was gradually moving toward normalization as restrictions related to COVID-19 were eased and vaccines became more widely available. However, the outlook remained uncertain due to higher energy resource prices resulting from Russia's invasion of Ukraine and volatility in financial markets.」

「During the cumulative third quarter period, Japan's economy was gradually moving toward normalization as restrictions related to COVID-19 were eased and vaccines became more widely available. However, the economic outlook remained uncertain due to continued increases in energy and raw material prices stemming from the situation in Ukraine, further inflation driven by the yen's depreciation, and other factors.」

「During the cumulative second quarter period, Japan's economy was gradually moving toward normalization as restrictions on activity were lifted and vaccines became more widely available, despite the prolonged impact of COVID-19. However, the outlook remained uncertain due to continued increases in energy and raw material prices stemming from the situation in Ukraine, as well as further inflation driven by the yen's depreciation.」

「During the cumulative first quarter, there were signs of economic activity normalizing following the lifting of restrictions on movement related to COVID-19. However, the economic outlook remained uncertain because of the rapid depreciation of the yen and surging resource prices against the backdrop of the prolonged situation involving Russia and Ukraine.」

「During the fiscal year, the Japanese economy remained affected by the prolonged impact of COVID-19, with infections involving new variants spreading, and concerns over the impact of COVID-19 continuing. In addition, the outlook remained uncertain due to rising energy resource prices following Russia's invasion of Ukraine and volatility in financial markets.」

「During the cumulative third quarter, corporate activity and personal consumption continued to contract because of the spread of COVID-19, including declarations of a state of emergency and priority preventive measures in some regions. Difficult economic conditions have continued from the previous fiscal year to the present, and the economic outlook remains uncertain.」

「During the cumulative second quarter, declarations of a state of emergency and priority preventive measures in some regions continued to cause corporate activity and personal consumption to contract, and difficult economic conditions persisted. The economic outlook therefore remained uncertain.」

「During the cumulative first quarter, a state of emergency was declared in some regions in Japan because of the spread of COVID-19. Corporate activity and personal consumption consequently continued to contract as local governments issued requests to refrain from going out, and difficult economic conditions have continued to the present. The economic outlook therefore remains uncertain.」

「During the fiscal year, the spread of COVID-19 resulted in a situation in which corporate activity and personal consumption had to contract substantially, as a state of emergency was reimposed in some regions in January and April 2021 and local governments issued requests to refrain from going out.」

「During the cumulative third quarter, the spread of COVID-19 resulted in a situation in which corporate activity and personal consumption had to contract substantially, as a state of emergency was reimposed in some regions in January 2021 and local governments issued requests to refrain from going out. The economic outlook therefore remained uncertain.」

「During the cumulative second quarter, the global economy remained uncertain as the spread of COVID-19 had a significant impact, including lower corporate earnings due to stagnation in economic activity worldwide and weaker consumer sentiment resulting from deteriorating employment conditions.」

「During the cumulative first quarter, the spread of COVID-19 severely restricted economic activity in Japan, resulting in lower corporate earnings and worsening employment conditions. Difficult economic conditions have continued to the present, and there is still no clear prospect for the pandemic to end, while concerns about a global economic slowdown persist.」

「During the fiscal year, the Japanese economy continued on a gradual recovery trend in the first quarter, as personal consumption recovered on improving employment and income conditions and capital investment increased amid high corporate earnings. However, from the second quarter onward, personal consumption fell sharply because of the consumption tax rate increase and the spread of COVID-19, while corporate production activity stagnated, causing business sentiment to deteriorate significantly.」

「During the cumulative third quarter, the Japanese economy had continued on a gradual recovery trend, supported by favorable employment and income conditions. However, business sentiment deteriorated because of declining exports resulting from the global slowdown and weak personal consumption following the consumption tax rate increase. In addition, the global spread of COVID-19 continued, heightening uncertainty over the outlook.」

「During the cumulative second quarter, the global economy remained uncertain. Although the trade friction between the United States and China was moving toward easing following a first-stage agreement reached in December, uncertainty persisted because of the UK's moves toward leaving the EU and geopolitical risks in the Middle East. In Japan, business sentiment deteriorated, particularly in manufacturing, because of sluggish exports and reduced appetite for capital investment amid the global slowdown. Personal consumption also weakened and the slowdown intensified following the consumption tax rate increase.」

「During the cumulative first quarter, the global economy slowed gradually as the worsening trade friction between the United States and China affected trade in other countries. In Japan, exports remained sluggish because of the global slowdown resulting from the trade friction, but personal consumption remained firm, supported by favorable income conditions and front-loaded demand ahead of the consumption tax increase. The economy therefore continued on a gradual recovery trend.」

「During the fiscal year, the global economy remained resilient in the United States, supported by strong personal consumption, while China and Europe experienced a gradual slowdown due to escalating trade friction between the United States and China. In Japan, exports slowed as the overseas economy decelerated, but personal consumption remained firm amid favorable employment conditions, and the economy continued on a gradual recovery trend.」

「During the cumulative first 3 quarters, business sentiment in the Japanese economy, which had been on a gradual recovery trend, deteriorated from the beginning of the year. Overseas, concerns about a slowdown in the global economy, led by the United States' protectionist trade policies and China, increased, and the outlook remained uncertain.」

「However, the outlook remains uncertain. Japan experienced a succession of record natural disasters, while overseas political developments in the United States, China and European countries, together with financial policy trends, contributed to the uncertainty.」

「However, the outlook remains uncertain amid heightened uncertainty in the global economy resulting from policy developments in the United States and instability in East Asia.」

「During the fiscal year, the Japanese economy remained uncertain despite the government's and the Bank of Japan's introduction of proactive policies, as concerns persisted over the impact on emerging-market economies of the North Korea issue and US interest rate hikes.」

「Although a gradual recovery is expected to continue, supported by improvements in employment and income conditions and the effects of various government policies, the outlook remains uncertain because of the impact of economic trends in China and other emerging Asian economies, policy developments in the United States and Europe, and volatility in financial and capital markets.」