Slowdown in Overseas Economies and Geopolitical Uncertainty

「Tensions in the Middle East are affecting crude oil prices and logistics costs and continue to be monitored as a downside risk to the global economy.」

「During the interim consolidated accounting period (1 January 2026 to 30 June 2026), US consumer spending showed signs of slowing, but the economy as a whole, including the corporate sector, remained firm. In Europe, a gradual recovery continued despite geopolitical risks, while in China the recovery in consumer spending has been delayed by the sluggish property market. In addition, tensions in the Middle East have affected crude oil prices and logistics costs and continue to be closely monitored as downside risks to the global economy.」

「The global economy remains in an uncertain situation, affected by restrictions on navigation through the Strait of Hormuz amid heightened tensions in the Middle East and prolonged conflicts, with rising crude oil prices and disruptions to logistics becoming evident. Against a backdrop of mounting global inflationary pressure and increased geopolitical risks, concerns are growing over slower economic growth and downside risks to the economy.」

「During the consolidated fiscal year (1 January 2025 to 31 December 2025), the global economy saw a solid US economy and a recovery in Europe, while China's sluggish property market and declining exports continued, making its growth slowdown more pronounced. As tensions persist in Ukraine and the Middle East and the Trump administration proceeds with implementing tariffs, concerns are spreading across countries over economic slowdowns caused by declining exports and higher prices, and the outlook remains uncertain.」

「During the interim consolidated accounting period (1 January 2025 to 30 June 2025), the global economy saw a solid US economy and a recovery in Europe, while China's property market remained sluggish and exports to the United States continued to decline. Concerns remain over the impact of the situation in Ukraine, the situation in the Middle East and the Trump administration's tariff policy on the countries concerned, and the outlook remains uncertain.」

「The global economy in 2025 is expected to recover as inflation eases and interest rates decline. However, risks of an economic downturn are evident from the impact of stronger protectionist policies by the second Trump administration in the United States, including additional tariffs, escalating US-China tensions, slower growth in the Chinese economy and changes in monetary policy in major countries. These developments will require continued close monitoring.」

「During the interim consolidated accounting period (1 January 2024 to 30 June 2024), the global economy followed a path of gradual growth while solid growth continued in the US economy. However, the outlook remains uncertain amid downside risks from a slowdown in the Chinese economy and the situations in Ukraine and the Middle East, as well as concerns over the impact of major countries' monetary policy developments in response to inflation and additional US tariffs on the global economy.」

「During the first-quarter consolidated cumulative period (1 January 2024 to 31 March 2024), the global economy faced downside risks from monetary tightening by major countries to address inflation, stagnation in the Chinese economy, and the situations in Ukraine and the Middle East, while attention focused on the firm US economy and interest-rate policy. Going forward, the outlook remains uncertain as attention is focused on a soft landing for the US economy and developments in the Chinese economy.」

「During the consolidated fiscal year (1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023), the global economy continued to normalize as countries lifted border restrictions and eased infection-control measures. Meanwhile, economic conditions varied by region due to concerns over the situation in Ukraine, worsening conditions in the Middle East and a prolonged stagnation in the Chinese economy, and uncertainty over the outlook increased.」

「During the third-quarter consolidated cumulative period (1 January 2023 to 30 September 2023), the global economy continued to recover as countries lifted border restrictions and eased infection-control measures. Meanwhile, a gradual economic slowdown is expected due to the situation in Ukraine, persistent inflation and prolonged monetary tightening by major central banks in the United States and Europe.」

「During the second-quarter consolidated cumulative period (1 January 2023 to 30 June 2023), the global economy continued to recover as countries lifted border restrictions and eased infection-control measures. Meanwhile, the economy slowed gradually due to the prolonged situation in Ukraine, persistent inflation and the impact of rate hikes by major central banks in the United States and Europe.」

「During the first-quarter consolidated cumulative period (1 January 2023 to 31 March 2023), the global economy continued to normalize as many countries lifted border restrictions and eased infection-control measures. Meanwhile, inflation continued due to higher resource and energy prices resulting from the situation in Ukraine and shortages of semiconductors and other components, while major central banks continued to raise interest rates, prompting concerns over the impact on the economy and the risk of recession. In the United States, the economy remained firm against a backdrop of recovering private consumption, but rising wages due to labor shortages became more pronounced in addition to higher resource and energy prices. Rapid monetary tightening to curb inflation also led to the collapse of some banks and financial instability. US interest-rate policy and its impact on the global economy continue to be closely monitored.」

「The global economy is clearly losing momentum in its recovery due to factors including interest rate hikes and reduced monetary easing by major central banks to curb inflation, higher energy prices resulting from geopolitical risks in Europe, and the spread of COVID-19 following China's shift away from its zero-COVID policy. A high degree of uncertainty over the outlook is expected to continue.」

「During the third-quarter consolidated cumulative period (1 January 2022 to 30 September 2022), the global economy saw divergent recoveries from COVID-19 between Western countries, which eased restrictions on activity, and China, which continued its zero-COVID policy. In addition, Russia's invasion of Ukraine further exacerbated ongoing shortages of semiconductors and other components, soaring energy and raw-material prices, and disruptions to logistics networks, leading to accelerating inflation worldwide. Against this backdrop, Western countries pursued monetary tightening to maintain price stability.」

「During the second-quarter consolidated cumulative period (1 January 2022 to 30 June 2022), the global economy saw divergent recoveries from COVID-19 between Western countries, which eased restrictions on activity, and China, which continued its zero-COVID policy. In addition, Russia's invasion of Ukraine further exacerbated ongoing shortages of semiconductors and other components, soaring energy and raw-material prices, and disruptions to logistics networks. Western countries are now urgently reviewing monetary policy to curb inflation.」

「During the first-quarter consolidated cumulative period (1 January 2022 to 31 March 2022), the global economy saw divergent recoveries from COVID-19 between Western countries, which eased restrictions on activity, and China, which continued its zero-COVID policy. In addition, Russia's invasion of Ukraine exacerbated ongoing shortages of semiconductors and other components, soaring energy and raw-material prices, and disruptions to logistics networks, increasing uncertainty over future economic activity and national security.」

「As countries tighten monetary policy in response to rising prices, concerns have arisen over stagnation in the recovering consumer sector and the outlook for the real economy remains uncertain. In addition, geopolitical risks include shortages of semiconductors and raw materials, disruptions to logistics, and the confrontation between the United States and Europe and Russia over the situation in Ukraine. The outlook for the global economy therefore continues to require close monitoring.」

「During the third-quarter consolidated cumulative period (1 January 2021 to 30 September 2021), the global economy saw differing rates of recovery from COVID-19 across regions. While economic activity recovered in Western countries and China as vaccination enabled restrictions on activity to be eased, the ASEAN region, where vaccination lagged, experienced a spread of COVID-19 infections caused by variants and was forced to maintain restrictions on activity.」

「Regarding the spread of COVID-19, automakers, the company's major customers, are increasing production in Japan and overseas as economic activity resumes, but the operating environment remains uncertain due to concerns over the spread of highly transmissible variants and the global semiconductor shortage.」

「During the first-quarter consolidated cumulative period (1 January 2021 to 31 March 2021), the global economy saw a pronounced recovery, with manufacturing activity in countries returning to pre-COVID-19 levels. However, economic activity has been significantly constrained by a severe global semiconductor shortage, particularly in the automotive industry, and the renewed acceleration of COVID-19 infections due to new variants, leaving the outlook uncertain.」

「The global economy is gradually returning to a recovery path, supported mainly by government-led economic stimulus measures in developed countries, but infections have again spread in many regions and the emergence of new variants has also been confirmed. Although expectations for containment are rising with the start of vaccinations, COVID-19 continues to be a major risk factor for the global economy.」

「During the third-quarter consolidated cumulative period (1 January 2020 to 30 September 2020), COVID-19, which emerged in China at the beginning of the year, spread to countries around the world and had a serious impact on the economies of individual countries. Economic activity began to recover in China from April and in other countries from June, but concerns remain over the arrival of a second wave.」

「During the second-quarter consolidated cumulative period (1 January 2020 to 30 June 2020), COVID-19, which emerged in China, spread to countries around the world and had a serious impact on the economies of individual countries.」

「During the first-quarter consolidated cumulative period (1 January 2020 to 31 March 2020), the novel coronavirus disease that emerged in China spread to countries around the world and had a serious impact on the global economy. A sense of crisis has risen sharply, with a substantial economic downturn on the scale of the Global Financial Crisis expected.」

「In the United States, employment and income conditions continue to improve gradually, and domestic demand remains firm, partly due to the effects of the Federal Reserve's precautionary rate cuts. However, manufacturing production remains sluggish due to a global slowdown in demand, including a substantial decline in exports to China.」

「During the third-quarter consolidated cumulative period (1 January 2019 to 30 September 2019), the global economy saw continued gradual improvement in employment and income conditions in the United States, and domestic demand remained firm. However, manufacturing production has been declining due to a global slowdown in demand, including a substantial decline in exports to China. In addition, US-China trade friction stemming from US tariff increases continues to attract global attention as negotiations proceed. In Europe, private consumption remained firm against a backdrop of improving employment and income conditions, but concerns have arisen over an economic slowdown due to slower external demand and inventory adjustments in the manufacturing sector. In the UK, uncertainty over the outlook for withdrawal from the EU remains, and the pace of economic recovery has remained slow.」

「During the second-quarter consolidated cumulative period (1 January 2019 to 30 June 2019), the global economy saw continued gradual improvement in employment and income conditions in the United States, and domestic demand remained firm. However, uncertainty over the outlook for corporate earnings increased due to a global slowdown in demand, including a substantial decline in exports to China. In addition, regarding US-China trade friction stemming from US tariff increases, the two countries have still been unable to reach an agreement, and the outlook for the negotiations is attracting global attention.」

「Regarding US-China trade friction stemming from US tariff increases, the two countries have still been unable to reach an agreement, and the outlook for the negotiations is attracting global attention. In Europe, private consumption remains firm against a backdrop of improving employment and income conditions, but concerns have arisen over an economic slowdown amid uncertainty caused by the UK's EU withdrawal issue, slower German exports and political turmoil in France.」

「In Europe, a gradual economic recovery had continued against a backdrop of expanding external demand, but concerns have arisen over an economic slowdown due to uncertainty over trade negotiations associated with the UK's withdrawal from the EU and political turmoil. In the ASEAN region, the economy is showing signs of a gradual recovery, supported by export growth driven by the recovery in the global economy, but the weaker currencies and capital outflows resulting from US rate hikes are a concern.」

「Meanwhile, the Trump administration's protectionist trade policy is attracting global attention. In Europe, although uncertainty remains over trade negotiations associated with the UK's withdrawal from the EU and political turmoil, the economy continues to recover gradually, supported by firm private consumption and expanding external demand, and attention is focused on a shift in the ECB's monetary easing policy.」

「Meanwhile, the Trump administration's protectionist trade policy is attracting global attention. In Europe, although uncertainty remains over trade negotiations associated with the UK's withdrawal from the EU and the stronger euro, the economy continues to recover gradually, supported by firm private consumption and expanding external demand, and attention is focused on a shift in the ECB's monetary easing policy.」

「Meanwhile, US tax reform and Federal Reserve monetary policy, including policy rate hikes, are attracting global attention. In Europe, a gradual economic recovery continues, including in southern European countries, and attention is focused on a shift in the ECB's quantitative easing policy.」

「Meanwhile, US trade policy and Federal Reserve monetary policy, including the timing of policy rate hikes and tapering, are attracting global attention. In Europe, a gradual economic recovery continues, including in southern European countries. Attention is now focused on when the ECB will begin reducing its quantitative easing.」

「Meanwhile, the world is watching closely how the United States will respond to trade policy, Syria and the situation in North Korea. In Europe, although the threat of terrorism and geopolitical risks, including the influx of refugees, continue, the economy showed a gradual recovery as the ECB's monetary easing measures remained in place. Meanwhile, in addition to the UK, which has notified the EU of its withdrawal, support for leaving the EU is increasing in various parts of Europe, raising concerns over the impact on the region's future political and economic outlook.」

「In Europe, although the threat of terrorism and geopolitical risks, including the influx of refugees, continue, the economy showed a gradual recovery, supported by continued monetary easing by the ECB and the weaker euro's contribution to the recovery in export-related companies' earnings. Meanwhile, in the UK, the Leave campaign won the June referendum, and anti-EU sentiment has grown across Europe, increasing uncertainty over the region's future political and economic outlook.」

「Meanwhile, concerns have arisen over the impact on corporate earnings of economic slowdowns in China and emerging markets and the outlook for the European economy, and the pace of Federal Reserve rate hikes is expected to be gradual. In Europe, although monetary easing by the ECB continues amid geopolitical risks, including the continuing threat of terrorism and the influx of refugees, as well as credit concerns at some financial institutions, the pace of economic recovery has slowed. Furthermore, following the victory of the Leave campaign in the UK's referendum at the end of June, uncertainty over Europe's future political and economic outlook has increased across the region.」

「Concerns have arisen over the impact on corporate earnings of economic slowdowns in China and emerging markets and the outlook for the European economy, and the pace of Federal Reserve rate hikes is expected to be gradual. In Europe, geopolitical risks, including the continuing threat of terrorism and the influx of refugees, remain, and although the ECB has implemented additional monetary easing measures, the pace of economic recovery has slowed. Furthermore, following the victory of the Leave campaign in the UK's referendum at the end of June, uncertainty over Europe's future political and economic outlook has increased across the region.」