Decline in Supply in the Market for Newly Built For-Sale Condominiums
First written in FY2017-Q1. 18 of 36 entries say "Worsened", first in FY2017-Q3. Latest entry: 2026-08-07.
Central General Development moved to the "Worse" side of this theme in 2023, 2 years before the typical company in this theme (2025).
3 other companies' latest entry also says "Worsened".
- 2026-08-07WorsenedEarnings
「首都圏における2026年上半期(１～６月)の新築分譲マンションの発売戸数は、前年同期比0.8％減の7,989戸と上半期としては５年連続で減少となる一方」
首都圏の新築分譲マンション発売戸数は、上半期として5年連続の減少となった。 - FY2026MitigatedAnnual report
「Meanwhile, nationwide launches rose 0.8% year on year to 59,940 units.」
Nationwide launches of newly built condominiums for sale rose 0.8% year on year, reversing the three consecutive years of declines through the previous fiscal year. Supply conditions showed signs of improvement. - FY2026-H1MitigatedAnnual report
「Launches of newly built condominiums for sale in the greater Tokyo area during the first half of fiscal 2025 (April to September) rose 11.1% year on year to 9,150 units, marking the first increase since the first half of fiscal 2021.」
Launches in the greater Tokyo area rose 11.1% year on year, marking the first increase since the first half of fiscal 2021. The previously continuing trend of declining supply showed signs of improvement. - FY2025WorsenedAnnual report
「Nationwide launches fell 8.6% year on year to 59,467 units, marking a decline for the third consecutive year.」
Nationwide launches of newly built condominiums for sale fell 8.6% year on year to 59,467 units, marking a decline for the third consecutive year. The decline in supply continued and intensified. - FY2025-H1WorsenedAnnual report
「Launches in the greater Tokyo area during the first half of fiscal 2024 (April to September) fell 29.7% year on year to 8,238 units, the lowest level on record and below the 2020 level during the COVID-19 pandemic.」
Launches of newly built condominiums for sale in the greater Tokyo area fell 29.7% year on year, reaching a record low below the 2020 level during the COVID-19 pandemic. The decline in supply became even more pronounced. - FY2024WorsenedAnnual report
「Meanwhile, nationwide launches fell 10.8% year on year to 65,075 units, marking a decline for the second consecutive year.」
Nationwide launches of newly built condominiums for sale fell 10.8% year on year to 65,075 units, marking a decline for the second consecutive year. The nationwide trend of declining supply continued. - FY2024-Q3WorsenedAnnual report
「Meanwhile, launches fell 9.1% year on year to 26,886 units.」
In 2023, launches of newly built condominiums for sale in the greater Tokyo area fell 9.1% year on year to 26,886 units, and supply continued to decline. - FY2024-Q2Supply continued to decline, but the rate of decline narrowedAnnual report
「Meanwhile, launches in the greater Tokyo area from April to September totaled 11,712 units, down 4.6% year on year. This was attributed mainly to the decline in the supply of newly built condominiums for sale caused by rising prices (survey by the Real Estate Economic Research Institute, Inc.).」
Launches in the greater Tokyo area continued to decline, down 4.6% year on year, but the rate of decline narrowed from 17.4% in the previous quarter. Supply continued to decline amid rising prices. - FY2024-Q1WorsenedAnnual report
「Meanwhile, launches in the greater Tokyo area during the first half fell 17.4% year on year to 10,502 units, marking a decline for the second consecutive year.」
Launches of newly built condominiums for sale in the greater Tokyo area fell 17.4% year on year to 10,502 units, marking a decline for the second consecutive year. - FY2023WorsenedAnnual report
「Meanwhile, nationwide launches fell 5.9% year on year to 72,967 units, below the previous year's level.」
Nationwide launches of newly built condominiums for sale fell 5.9% year on year to 72,967 units, below the previous year's level. The nationwide trend of declining supply continued. - FY2023-Q3WorsenedAnnual report
「Meanwhile, launches declined 12.1% year on year to 29,569 units as new supply was constrained by uncertainty over construction prospects, including the procurement of construction materials.」
Launches of newly built for-sale condominiums in the Tokyo metropolitan area declined 12.1% year on year to 29,569 units, indicating that new supply was constrained against a backdrop of uncertainty over construction material procurement and the outlook for construction. - FY2023-Q2RestatedAnnual report
「In the first half of FY2022, from April through September, launches of newly built for-sale condominiums in the Tokyo metropolitan area declined 4.2% year on year to 12,271 units.」
Launches of newly built for-sale condominiums in the Tokyo metropolitan area declined 4.2% year on year, and the declining supply trend continued. - FY2023-Q1WorsenedAnnual report
「Meanwhile, launches in the Tokyo metropolitan area declined 4.2% year on year to 12,716 units in the first half, marking the first decrease in 2 years.」
Launches of newly built for-sale condominiums in the Tokyo metropolitan area declined 4.2% year on year, marking the first decrease in 2 years. Supply conditions deteriorated again. - FY2022MitigatedAnnual report
「Nationwide launches from January through December 2021 increased 29.5% year on year to 77,552 units, exceeding the previous year's level for the first time in 3 years.」
Nationwide launches of newly built for-sale condominiums increased 29.5% year on year to 77,552 units, exceeding the previous year's level for the first time in 3 years. The declining supply trend improved. - FY2022-Q3MitigatedAnnual report
「In 2021, launches of newly built for-sale condominiums in the Tokyo metropolitan area increased 23.5% year on year to 33,636 units, turning higher for the first time in 3 years as a rebound from the previous year's voluntary suspension of operations amid the spread of COVID-19.」
Launches in the Tokyo metropolitan area increased 23.5% year on year to 33,636 units, turning higher for the first time in 3 years. The rebound from the previous year's voluntary suspension of operations was also identified as a factor. - FY2022-Q2MitigatedAnnual report
「In the first half of FY2021, from April through September, launches of newly built for-sale condominiums in the Tokyo metropolitan area increased 44.7% year on year to 12,809 units. The main factors were a rebound from the sharp supply decline in the previous fiscal year caused by voluntary suspension of operations amid the spread of COVID-19, and recovering demand, particularly among families seeking improved living environments as telework became more widespread.」
Launches in the Tokyo metropolitan area increased 44.7% year on year, recovering from the supply decline caused by the previous fiscal year's voluntary suspension of operations. Recovery in demand among families seeking improved living environments amid the spread of telework was also identified as a factor. - FY2022-Q1MitigatedAnnual report
「In the first half of 2021, from January through June, launches of newly built for-sale condominiums in the Tokyo metropolitan area increased 77.3% year on year to 13,277 units, turning higher for the first time in 3 years.」
Launches in the Tokyo metropolitan area increased 77.3% year on year, turning higher for the first time in 3 years. The declining supply trend improved. - FY2021-Q3WorsenedAnnual report
「In 2020, launches of newly built for-sale condominiums in the Tokyo metropolitan area were affected by developers' temporary suspension of operations during the spring state of emergency, falling 12.8% year on year to 27,228 units and below 30,000 units for the first time in 28 years since 1992.」
Annual launches in the Tokyo metropolitan area fell 12.8% year on year to 27,228 units, dropping below 30,000 units for the first time in 28 years since 1992. Suspension of operations due to COVID-19 was also identified as a factor behind the supply decline. - FY2021-Q2Recovery in demand and supply amid sluggish supplyAnnual report
「In the first half of FY2020, from April through September, launches of newly built for-sale condominiums in the Tokyo metropolitan area fell 26.2% year on year to 8,851 units, dropping below 10,000 units for the first time in a fiscal-year first half since the survey began in 1973. This was mainly because developers sharply reduced supply in April and May as a measure to prevent the spread of COVID-19. However, demand has now recovered, and launches have also begun to exceed the year-earlier level.」
While launches declined 26.2% year on year and fell below 10,000 units for the first time in a fiscal-year first half, the recovery in current demand and launches exceeding the year-earlier level were noted, resulting in a market environment where negative and recovery factors coexisted. - FY2021-Q1WorsenedAnnual report
「In the first half of 2020, from January through June, launches of newly built for-sale condominiums in the Tokyo metropolitan area fell 44.2% year on year to 7,497 units, dropping below 10,000 units for the first time in a first half since the survey began in 1973.」
Launches in the Tokyo metropolitan area declined 44.2% year on year, falling below 10,000 units in a first half for the first time since the survey began, further intensifying the supply contraction. The main factors were voluntary suspension of model-room operations and restrictions on new supply to prevent the spread of COVID-19. - FY2020WorsenedAnnual report
「Nationwide launches declined 12.0% year on year to 70,660 units, marking the first decline in 3 years.」
Nationwide launches of newly built for-sale condominiums declined 12.0% year on year, marking the first decrease in 3 years. - FY2020-Q3WorsenedAnnual report
「Meanwhile, launches declined 15.9% year on year to 31,238 units, marking the first decline in 3 years.」
In 2019, launches in the Tokyo metropolitan area fell 15.9% year on year to 31,238 units, marking the first decline in 3 years. - FY2020-Q2WorsenedAnnual report
「In the first half of FY2019, from April through September, the average price of newly built for-sale condominiums in the Tokyo metropolitan area increased 4.2% year on year to ¥60.06 million, exceeding ¥60 million for the first time in 28 years since the first half of FY1991. Meanwhile, launches fell 21.7% year on year to 11,996 units, remaining below the year-earlier level for the sixth consecutive year.」
Launches of newly built for-sale condominiums in the Tokyo metropolitan area declined 21.7% year on year, marking the sixth consecutive year below the year-earlier level. The contraction in supply became more pronounced. - FY2020-Q1WorsenedAnnual report
「Meanwhile, launches declined 13.3% year on year to 13,436 units, marking the first first-half decline in 3 years and the lowest level in 27 years since 1992.」
Launches of newly built for-sale condominiums in the Tokyo metropolitan area declined 13.3% year on year, falling to their lowest level in 3 years for a first half and in 27 years since 1992. - FY2019MitigatedAnnual report
「Major metropolitan areas also drove the increase in launches. During the same period, condominium launches in major cities nationwide increased 3.7% year on year to 80,256 units, rising for the second consecutive year and returning to the 80,000-unit range for the first time in 4 years.」
Launches in major cities nationwide increased for the second consecutive year, returning to the 80,000-unit range for the first time in 4 years. - FY2019-Q3MitigatedAnnual report
「From January through December 2018, launches of newly built for-sale condominiums in the Tokyo metropolitan area totaled 37,132 units, up 3.4% year on year. Despite differences among the prefectures, launches increased for the second consecutive year.」
Launches of newly built for-sale condominiums in the Tokyo metropolitan area increased 3.4% year on year, marking the second consecutive annual increase and indicating an improvement in the declining supply trend. - FY2019-Q2WorsenedAnnual report
「In the first half of FY2018, from April through September, launches of newly built for-sale condominiums in the Tokyo metropolitan area fell 5.0% year on year to 15,323 units, the second-lowest level after 1992.」
Launches in the Tokyo metropolitan area declined 5.0% year on year to their second-lowest level after 1992. Meanwhile, completed unsold inventory declined for 8 consecutive months, and launches were expected to recover from autumn onward. - FY2019-Q1MitigatedAnnual report
「In the first half of 2018, from January through June, launches of newly built for-sale condominiums in the Tokyo metropolitan area increased 5.3% year on year to 15,504 units, marking the second consecutive first-half increase.」
Launches of newly built for-sale condominiums in the Tokyo metropolitan area increased 5.3% year on year, marking the second consecutive first-half increase and improving the declining supply trend. - FY2018-Q3MitigatedAnnual report
「From January through December 2017, launches of newly built for-sale condominiums increased year on year in both regions, rising 0.4% to 35,898 units in the Tokyo metropolitan area and 4.7% to 19,560 units in the Kinki region.」
Launches increased year on year in both the Tokyo metropolitan and Kinki regions, indicating an improvement in the declining supply trend. However, the initial-month contract rate in the Tokyo metropolitan area was 68.1%, below 70% for the second consecutive year. - FY2018-Q2WorsenedAnnual report
「In the first half of FY2017, from April through September, launches of newly built for-sale condominiums in the Tokyo metropolitan area fell 3.6% year on year to 16,133 units. By area, launches increased 15.9% to 7,910 units in Tokyo's 23 wards, but declined in all other areas: 1,742 units in western Tokyo, down 7.0%; 3,692 units in Kanagawa Prefecture, down 17.2%; 1,688 units in Saitama Prefecture, down 6.6%; and 1,101 units in Chiba Prefecture, down 37.8%. The average price rose 5.9% to ¥59.93 million, marking the fifth consecutive annual first-half increase. The average initial-month contract rate was 68.6%, below the 70% benchmark for strong or weak performance for the second consecutive year (survey by the Real Estate Economic Research Institute, Inc.).」
Launches across the Tokyo metropolitan area declined 3.6% year on year, with decreases also seen outside Tokyo's 23 wards. The initial-month contract rate was 68.6%, below the 70% benchmark for strong performance for the second consecutive year, indicating continued weakness in supply and demand. - FY2018-Q1MitigatedAnnual report
「In the first half of 2017, from January through June, launches of newly built for-sale condominiums in the Tokyo metropolitan area increased 1.9% year on year to 14,730 units, marking the first increase in 4 years. However, the average initial-month contract rate was 67.3%, below the 70% benchmark for strong or weak performance, indicating that customers remained cautious (survey by the Real Estate Economic Research Institute, Inc.).」
Launches in the Tokyo metropolitan area turned higher for the first time in 4 years, showing some improvement in the declining market supply trend. However, the initial-month contract rate remained below 70%, indicating that customers continued to take a cautious stance. - FY2017-Q3WorsenedAnnual report
「In 2016, launches of newly built for-sale condominiums declined for the third consecutive year in the Tokyo metropolitan area, falling 11.6% year on year to 35,772 units, and decreased 1.3% to 18,676 units in the Kinki region. The average initial-month contract rate was 68.8% in the Tokyo metropolitan area and 71.9% in the Kinki region, with the Tokyo metropolitan area falling below the 70% benchmark for strong performance for the first time in 7 years.」
Launches in the Tokyo metropolitan area declined for the third consecutive year, while the initial-month contract rate fell below the 70% benchmark for strong performance for the first time in 7 years, providing a clearer indication of market contraction and sluggish demand. - FY2017-Q2RestatedAnnual report
「In the Tokyo metropolitan area, launches declined year on year for 9 consecutive months through August as selling prices remained high, and the initial-month contract rate fell below the 70% benchmark for 3 consecutive months, but the rate recovered to 72.0% in September. In the Kinki region, launches increased 4.0% year on year in September for the third consecutive month, but the initial-month contract rate fell below 70% for the first time in 4 months, to 68.1%.」
In the Tokyo metropolitan area, declining launches and weak contract rates continued through August, while the contract rate recovered in September. In the Kinki region, launches increased but the contract rate remained below the benchmark for strong performance, indicating continued instability in the market environment. - FY2017-Q1First statedAnnual report
「The number of newly built for-sale condominiums launched from January through June 2016 continued to decline, falling 19.8% year on year to 14,454 units in the Tokyo metropolitan area and 11.5% to 8,941 units in the Kinki region.」
The decline in launches in the Tokyo metropolitan and Kinki regions, together with the expected contraction in annual supply in the Tokyo metropolitan area, was identified as a market-environment risk.