Global Economic Uncertainty and Risks of Downward Pressure on Economic Conditions

「Although the effects of improvements in employment and income conditions and various policies implemented since the formation of the new Cabinet, including the abolition of the provisional gasoline tax rate and an increase in the so-called annual income threshold, are expected to support a gradual economic recovery, attention must be paid to the impact of U.S. trade policy and developments in the Middle East.」

「Although concerns remain over the impact of U.S. trade policy, expectations are growing for the economic measures of the new Cabinet, which has made addressing inflation its top priority.」

「Although a gradual recovery is expected to continue as employment and income conditions improve, including expectations for a recovery in real wages, attention must also be paid to developments in financial markets, including foreign exchange markets, following the elections in Japan and the United States, heightened tensions in the Middle East and Ukraine, and downside risks to the Chinese and European economies.」

「Downside risks to economic activity include a slowdown in overseas economies, particularly concerns over the outlook for the Chinese economy, and a decline in real purchasing power caused by rising domestic prices. In addition, tensions in the Middle East have heightened due to the conflict between Israel and Hamas, and attention must be paid to its impact.」

「Although moderate growth is expected, supported by sustained growth in personal consumption resulting from improvements in employment and income conditions and increased corporate capital investment, uncertainty over the outlook has intensified due to a decline in real purchasing power caused by rising prices, the slowdown in the global economy and the heightened tensions in the Middle East resulting from the conflict between Israel and Hamas.」

「Although moderate growth led by private demand is expected, together with the effects of government economic measures, attention must also be paid to future domestic and overseas developments, including the global inflationary trend, sharp fluctuations in foreign exchange and financial markets, systemic financial risks, and downside risks to the Chinese and Western economies.」

「Although a continued gradual recovery is expected, attention must also be paid to the prolonged situation in Ukraine, downside risks to the economies of major Western countries and China, and sharp fluctuations in interest rates and foreign exchange markets.」

「Although a gradual recovery led by domestic demand, including personal consumption and capital investment, is expected as the number of COVID-19 cases declines, partly due to expectations for future government economic measures, attention must also be paid to a deterioration in the situation in Ukraine, recession risks in the United States, Europe and China, and movements in interest rates and foreign exchange markets.」

「Although the economy is expected to continue recovering as economic and social activity normalizes, attention must also be paid to the impact of the resurgence of COVID-19 amid the arrival of the seventh wave, the risks of higher resource prices and supply chain disruptions resulting from the prolonged situation in Ukraine and the reimposition of urban lockdowns in China, the risk of recession in Europe and the United States due to monetary tightening, and movements in foreign exchange markets.」

「Logistics disruptions exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic and increases in resource and raw material prices accelerated following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February, bringing the environment surrounding prices into a phase different from the deflationary economy of the 30 years of prolonged stagnation to date.」

「Infections with the Omicron variant spread rapidly in Japan from January onward, and priority preventive measures were applied in 35 prefectures. Infections with Omicron also continue to spread overseas, and although declines have been seen in the rates of severe illness and death, concerns remain over adverse effects on the economy going forward. The impact on the Japanese economy of a weaker yen, soaring prices for crude oil and other raw materials, and rising production costs such as higher wages also requires close attention. Attention must also be paid to overseas developments, including growing concerns over inflation and rising interest rates in the United States, a slowdown in the Chinese economy, and geopolitical risks related to the situations in Ukraine and the Taiwan Strait.」

「The fifth wave subsided rapidly from September onward, and the state of emergency was lifted at the end of September. Together with substantial progress in vaccinations, this is expected to accelerate the movement toward economic normalization. However, in light of conditions in other countries, deep-rooted vigilance toward a sixth wave of infections remains, and concerns also remain over the adverse impact of soaring resource prices on the economy.」

「Although rapid expansion of vaccination is expected to lead to rapid normalization across Japan's economic activity, risks associated with the spread of highly transmissible variants remain a concern.」

「However, the rapid spread of COVID-19 since November last year led to the reissuance of a state of emergency in 11 prefectures in January 2021, raising concerns over a future deterioration in economic conditions.」

「During the first six months of the fiscal year, the Japanese economy remained in a difficult situation due to the impact of COVID-19, although signs of a recovery in production and other areas were seen, partly due to government economic measures such as the Go To Campaign.」

「During the first three months of the fiscal year, the Japanese economy deteriorated rapidly due to the impact of COVID-19 and remains in an extremely difficult situation. Various policies are being implemented to raise the level of economic activity while preventing the spread of infection, but close attention must be paid to various domestic and overseas developments going forward.」

「During the fiscal year, the Japanese economy had been experiencing deteriorating corporate business sentiment due to a slowdown in overseas economies and the increase in the consumption tax rate from the second quarter onward. However, from February after the start of the year, the global spread of COVID-19 caused economic activity to slow sharply not only in Japan but also in major Western countries, raising concerns over an economic contraction far exceeding that following the Lehman shock.」

「During the first nine months of the fiscal year, the Japanese economy remained in a difficult situation. Although the deterioration in personal consumption caused by the increase in the consumption tax rate was limited by various measures and was smaller than at the time of the previous tax increase, exports remained weak due to the slowdown in overseas economies and corporate business sentiment deteriorated further, particularly among large manufacturers. In addition, uncertainty over the economic outlook intensified against a backdrop of developments concerning trade issues during the period, the outlook for the Chinese economy, turmoil in the European economy, including the United Kingdom's withdrawal from the EU, geopolitical risks evident in developments on the Korean Peninsula and in the Middle East, and the risk of a global spread of the new type of pneumonia believed to have originated in Wuhan, China.」

「During the first six months of the fiscal year, the Japanese economy was affected by U.S.-China trade friction, and corporate business sentiment deteriorated, particularly among large manufacturers. In addition, uncertainty over the economic outlook intensified further against a backdrop of a slowdown in the Chinese economy, turmoil in the European economy, including the issue of the United Kingdom's withdrawal from the EU, geopolitical risks evident in developments on the Korean Peninsula and in the Middle East, and unstable financial markets.」

「Against a backdrop of U.S.-China trade friction, a slowdown in the Chinese economy, turmoil in the European economy, including the issue of the United Kingdom's withdrawal from the EU, geopolitical risks evident in developments on the Korean Peninsula and in the Middle East, and unstable financial markets, uncertainty over the economic outlook has intensified further.」

「Meanwhile, uncertainty over the economic outlook has intensified further against a backdrop of U.S.-China trade friction, a slowdown in the Chinese economy, turmoil in the European economy, including the issue of the United Kingdom's withdrawal from the EU, geopolitical risks evident in developments on the Korean Peninsula and in the Middle East, and unstable financial markets. Close attention must also be paid to developments concerning measures to address the increase in the consumption tax rate.」

「Meanwhile, uncertainty over the economic outlook has intensified further against a backdrop of U.S.-China trade friction, concerns over a slowdown in the Chinese economy, developments within the EU, including those involving the United Kingdom, Germany and Italy, developments in the Middle East and crude oil prices, geopolitical risks and unstable financial and capital markets. Close attention must also be paid to the impact on economic activity of a series of natural disasters, including the torrential rains in July 2018, major typhoons and the Hokkaido Eastern Iburi Earthquake, as well as developments concerning an increase in the consumption tax rate.」

「Meanwhile, uncertainty over the economic outlook is increasing due to developments in trade issues between the United States and China, the EU and others, concerns over a slowdown in the Chinese economy, geopolitical risks and the impact of increased volatility in financial and capital markets. There are also concerns over the impact on future economic activity of damage caused by the Northern Osaka Earthquake in June 2018 and the torrential rains in July 2018. 」

「The global economy is also recovering gradually, although the outlook remains uncertain due to geopolitical risks, developments in trade issues and increased volatility in financial and capital markets.」

「The global economy is also continuing to recover gradually, although uncertainty remains due to heightened geopolitical risks, including terrorism in various countries and developments involving North Korea, as well as concerns over the rise of regionalism.」

「Meanwhile, although the U.S. economy continues to recover steadily, uncertainty remains overseas and the situation continues to require close attention, due to heightened geopolitical risks, including terrorism in various regions and developments involving North Korea, as well as concerns over the rise of protectionism.」

「Meanwhile, although the US economy is steadily recovering, uncertainty in overseas economies is increasing due to rising geopolitical risks, including terrorism by Islamic State and the situation in North Korea, the UK's withdrawal from the EU, and concerns about the rise of protectionism. The situation remains unpredictable, including the direction of the Trump administration's economic policies in the United States.」

「Meanwhile, uncertainty in overseas economies is increasing due to rising geopolitical risks, including terrorism by Islamic State, the UK's withdrawal from the EU, and concerns about the rise of protectionism, creating a need to remain mindful of the direction of the economic policies of the new Trump administration in the United States.」

「As economic conditions in emerging economies, including China, and resource-rich countries deteriorate, rising geopolitical risks including terrorism by Islamic State, the UK's withdrawal from the EU, and concerns about the rise of protectionism increase uncertainty in the global economy, creating a need to remain mindful of the risk of downward pressure on economic conditions in Japan.」

「As economic conditions in China and emerging economies deteriorate, rising geopolitical risks including terrorism by Islamic State and market turmoil following Brexit increase uncertainty in the global economy, creating a need to remain mindful of the risk of downward pressure on economic conditions in Japan.」