Contraction of the Housing Market Driven by the Declining Birthrate and Aging Population, Population Decline, and Rising Number of Vacant Homes
First written in FY2016. 15 of 26 entries say "Worsened", first in FY2019. Latest entry: 2026-09-14.
Tsuchiya Holdings moved to the "Worse" side of this theme in 2020, the same year as the typical company in this theme.
The whole theme swung hardest in 2020: 12 of 17 companies on the "Worse" side.
3 other companies' latest entry also says "Worsened".
- FY2026-H1WorsenedAnnual report
「Against the backdrop of rising home purchase prices, demand for compact homes increased as buyers sought to limit their purchase burden. In addition, expectations of higher mortgage rates and sluggish real wage growth led to a more cautious attitude toward home purchases, and the sales cycle continued to lengthen.」
The disclosure states that rising home acquisition prices, expectations of higher mortgage rates, and stagnant real wage growth have made buyers more cautious and lengthened the sales negotiation period. - FY2025-H1ReframedAnnual report
「In the housing and real estate industries in which our Group operates, concerns remain over population decline accompanying the declining birthrate and aging population, the shortage of skilled workers, construction costs, and higher mortgage rates. However, owner-occupied housing starts increased year on year from November 2024 through April 2025.」
While concerns over population decline, the shortage of skilled workers, and higher construction costs and mortgage rates continue, the disclosure states that owner-occupied housing starts increased year on year from November 2024 through April 2025. - FY2024WorsenedAnnual report
「In the housing and real estate industries in which our Group operates, home acquisition prices have been rising because residential land and material prices remain elevated, negatively affecting sentiment toward home acquisition.」
In addition to the risk of a shrinking housing market because of population decline and other factors, acquisition prices remain high and sentiment toward home acquisition remains weak because residential land and material prices remain elevated. - FY2024-Q2WorsenedAnnual report
「Housing demand has remained sluggish for an extended period because of rising home acquisition prices, and owner-occupied housing starts have remained weak, while rental housing has remained relatively firm.」
The disclosure describes the slump in housing demand caused by rising home acquisition prices as extending over a prolonged period, and states that owner-occupied housing starts have also remained weak. - FY2024-Q1WorsenedAnnual report
「Owner-occupied housing starts have remained sluggish as rising home acquisition prices have reduced sentiment toward home acquisition, while rental housing has remained relatively firm.」
For owner-occupied housing, the disclosure cites declining sentiment toward home acquisition against a backdrop of rising home acquisition prices and sluggish housing starts, indicating that the challenging housing market conditions continue. Rental housing is described as remaining relatively firm. - FY2023-Q3WorsenedAnnual report
「Owner-occupied housing starts and detached for-sale housing starts have continued to fall below the year-earlier month, while the challenging business environment continues as consumer sentiment toward home acquisition declines because of rising home prices resulting from higher prices for building materials and residential equipment, despite falling timber prices.」
The disclosure shows that, in addition to owner-occupied housing, detached for-sale housing starts have continued to fall below the year-earlier month, and also notes declining sentiment toward home acquisition because of rising home prices. - FY2023-Q2WorsenedAnnual report
「Owner-occupied housing starts fell to their lowest level and remained below the year-earlier level from December 2021. They fell below 25 million units in fiscal 2022, although total housing starts remained relatively firm.」
Owner-occupied housing starts fell to their lowest level, remained below the year-earlier level from December 2021, and totaled less than 25 million units in fiscal 2022, providing specific figures showing the deterioration associated with the shrinking housing market. - FY2023-Q1WorsenedAnnual report
「Owner-occupied housing starts have remained below the year-earlier level since December 2021. Although timber prices have been trending downward and have begun to stabilize, the challenging business environment continues because of expectations that mortgage rates will rise and declining consumer sentiment resulting from higher prices.」
Owner-occupied housing starts have remained below the year-earlier level since December 2021. Expectations of higher interest rates and declining consumer sentiment caused by higher prices were also noted, indicating that the challenging housing market conditions are continuing. - FY2022WorsenedAnnual report
「In the housing and real estate industries in which our Group operates, owner-occupied housing starts have remained below the year-earlier level for 11 consecutive months and have continued to trend weakly. Concerns have arisen over the impact on consumer sentiment of declining real wages caused by higher prices and rising home acquisition costs resulting from higher construction costs and residential land prices, and the challenging business environment continues.」
Owner-occupied housing starts fell below the year-earlier level for 11 consecutive months, while the decline in real wages and higher acquisition costs caused by soaring construction costs and residential land prices were also noted. - FY2021Continued recovery in owner-occupied housing starts and constraints on materials supplyAnnual report
「As time spent at home increased with the spread of COVID-19, interest in detached homes grew. Owner-occupied housing starts have continued to exceed the year-earlier level since November 2020, but the challenging business environment continues, with timber prices soaring because of the lumber shock and delays in the supply of residential equipment caused by semiconductor shortages.」
Although owner-occupied housing starts have continued to exceed the year-earlier level since November 2020, the challenging environment continues because of soaring timber prices and delays in the supply of residential equipment. - FY2021-Q3Recovery in owner-occupied housing starts alongside new market pressuresAnnual report
「Interest in detached homes has grown as lifestyles have changed in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, and owner-occupied housing starts have been trending toward recovery, turning positive year on year from November 2020. However, the business environment remains challenging due to surging timber prices caused by the timber shortage and intensifying competition to acquire residential land.」
The disclosure states that owner-occupied housing starts have begun to recover, but the challenging housing market environment is expected to continue because of soaring timber prices and intensifying competition to acquire residential land. - FY2021-Q2Owner-occupied housing starts showing signs of recovery, but market conditions remain challengingAnnual report
「Owner-occupied housing starts have recently been recovering, but remain below pre-pandemic levels, and the challenging business environment continues.」
Although owner-occupied housing starts are recovering, they remain below pre-pandemic levels, and the challenging environment in the housing market continues. - FY2021-Q1RestatedAnnual report
「Although interest in detached houses is gradually increasing, new owner-occupied housing starts remain sluggish.」
The disclosure continues to state that interest in detached homes is growing, while owner-occupied housing starts remain sluggish. - FY2020WorsenedAnnual report
「In the housing and real estate industries in which our group operates, the number of new owner-occupied housing starts has remained below the previous year's level for 15 consecutive months since August 2019, and challenging market conditions continue due in part to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.」
The period during which new owner-occupied housing starts remained below the previous year's level extended from 12 consecutive months to 15 consecutive months, compounded by the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. - FY2020-Q3WorsenedAnnual report
「Recently, the number of new owner-occupied housing starts has remained below the year-earlier level for 12 consecutive months since August 2019, continuing its negative trend. In addition, restrictions on sales activities and other factors arising from the spread of COVID-19 have resulted in challenging market conditions.」
The period during which new owner-occupied housing starts remained below the year-earlier level extended to 12 consecutive months, compounded by restrictions on sales activities and other effects of the spread of the pandemic. - FY2020-Q2WorsenedAnnual report
「Recently, the number of new owner-occupied housing starts has remained below the year-earlier level for 9 consecutive months since August 2019, continuing its negative trend. In addition, sales activities have been affected by the spread of COVID-19, resulting in challenging market conditions.」
The period during which new owner-occupied housing starts remained below the year-earlier level was extended from 6 consecutive months to 9 consecutive months, compounded by the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on sales activities. - FY2020-Q1WorsenedAnnual report
「The number of new owner-occupied housing starts has remained below the year-earlier level for 6 consecutive months since August 2019, indicating that challenging market conditions continue.」
In relation to the risk of housing market contraction due to population decline and other factors, the period during which new owner-occupied housing starts remained below the year-earlier level was extended from 3 consecutive months to 6 consecutive months. - FY2019WorsenedAnnual report
「In the housing and real estate industries in which our group operates, the business environment is expected to remain challenging, with the housing market forecast to contract as the number of new housing starts declines alongside decreases in the population and number of households.」
In addition to the previous references to population decline and rising housing stock, the company forecasts a decline in new housing starts and a contraction of the housing market due to decreases in the population and number of households. - FY2019-Q3RestatedAnnual report
「In the housing and real estate industries in which our group operates, owner-occupied housing starts increased year on year, but the overall market remained weak.」
The company states that, while the number of new owner-occupied housing starts is increasing, the overall housing market remains weak. - FY2019-Q2RestatedAnnual report
「Although owner-occupied housing starts remained firm, exceeding the year-earlier level for 7 consecutive months, the market environment remains challenging due to the declining total population and the aging and declining construction workforce.」
While the number of new owner-occupied housing starts remains steady, the company continues to describe the structural challenges facing the housing market, including the decline in the total population. - FY2019-Q1RestatedAnnual report
「Owner-occupied housing starts increased from the year-earlier quarter during the cumulative first quarter of the current consolidated fiscal year, but the market environment remains challenging due to the declining total population, the aging and declining number of carpenters, and the impending consumption tax increase.」
The company continues to describe the structural challenges facing the housing market, including the decline in the total population. - FY2018-Q3RestatedAnnual report
「Amid the declining total population, rising housing stock, anticipated amendments to the Inheritance Tax Act and an impending consumption tax increase, we carried out a company split to respond to the continually changing market environment,」
The company continues to describe changes in the market environment, including the decline in the total population and increase in housing stock, as assumptions underlying business operations. - FY2018-Q2RestatedAnnual report
「Amid the declining total population, rising housing stock, anticipated amendments to the Inheritance Tax Act and an impending consumption tax increase, we carried out a company split effective 1 February 2018 to respond to the continually changing market environment,」
The company continues to cite the decline in the total population and increase in housing stock as factors behind the continuing major changes in the market environment. - FY2016First statedAnnual report
「With no end in sight to the declining population resulting from the declining birthrate and population ageing, the number of vacant homes will continue to increase, making a contraction of the housing market inevitable.」
The company identifies population decline, rising vacant home numbers and housing market contraction as medium- to long-term business-environment risks.