Order Volatility Driven by Employment and Income, Housing Policy, Interest Rates, and Other Factors
First written in FY2016. 16 of 26 entries say "Worsened", first in FY2018-Q2. Latest entry: 2026-09-14.
Tsuchiya Holdings moved to the "Worse" side of this theme in 2020, 4 years before the typical company in this theme (2024).
The whole theme swung hardest in 2020: 7 of 16 companies on the "Worse" side.
4 other companies' latest entry also says "Worsened".
- FY2026-H1WorsenedAnnual report
「Against the backdrop of rising home purchase prices, demand for compact homes increased as buyers sought to limit their purchase burden. In addition, expectations of higher mortgage rates and sluggish real wage growth led to a more cautious attitude toward home purchases, and the sales cycle continued to lengthen.」
The disclosure progresses to explaining that trends in home prices, interest rates and real wages are having an actual impact on attitudes toward home acquisition and the sales negotiation period. - FY2025-H1ReframedAnnual report
「Meanwhile, as an increasingly popular way to limit repayment burdens, more customers are choosing long-term loans exceeding 40 years instead of the previously standard 35-year loans. As the economic and psychological burdens associated with large borrowings over long periods increase, more people are placing greater importance on homes with high future asset values. At the same time, potential demand for home acquisition remains relatively firm, supported by the continued preference for homeownership and the establishment of wage increases.」
As a concern for housing demand, the disclosure points to longer loan terms, from 35 years to more than 40 years, and higher borrowing burdens, while describing potential demand supported by the preference for homeownership and wage increases as relatively firm. - FY2024WorsenedAnnual report
「Rising construction costs caused by higher material prices and labor costs, together with expectations of higher mortgage rates, are weighing on sentiment toward home acquisition.」
In addition to material prices, higher labor costs and expectations of higher mortgage rates are explicitly identified as factors driving higher home acquisition prices, broadening the factors that may cause fluctuations in orders received. - FY2024-Q2WorsenedAnnual report
「The challenging economic environment continues, including the end of the negative interest rate policy and efforts to respond to work-style reforms. From fiscal 2025, reviews of housing energy-efficiency performance, including mandatory compliance with energy-efficiency standards, and stricter review standards for housing starts are being implemented to ensure structural safety, increasing the importance of housing performance and safety.」
The end of the negative interest rate policy is described as an environmental factor that has already occurred, and the challenging economic environment continues, including efforts to respond to work-style reforms. - FY2024-Q1WorsenedAnnual report
「The challenging business environment continues, including moves toward ending the negative interest rate policy and efforts to respond to work-style reforms.」
In addition to the previously cited effects of home acquisition prices and interest rates, moves toward ending the negative interest rate policy and efforts to respond to work-style reforms were identified as factors contributing to the challenging business environment. - FY2023-Q3WorsenedAnnual report
「Owner-occupied housing starts and detached for-sale housing starts have continued to fall below the year-earlier month. Although timber prices are falling, the challenging business environment continues as consumer sentiment toward home acquisition declines because of higher home prices resulting from higher prices for building materials and residential equipment. In addition, although variable-rate mortgage rates remain low, future trends need to be closely monitored.」
The disclosure cites housing starts falling below the year-earlier level, higher prices for building materials and residential equipment, and weaker sentiment toward home acquisition, while stating that future trends in low variable-rate mortgage rates will also be closely monitored. - FY2023-Q2WorsenedAnnual report
「Although timber prices are trending downward, the challenging business environment continues, with consumer sentiment weakening as home prices rise because of soaring prices for other materials and related factors.」
While noting the downward trend in timber prices, the disclosure identifies higher home prices and weaker consumer sentiment resulting from soaring prices for other materials and related factors as factors worsening the order environment. - FY2023-Q1WorsenedAnnual report
「The business environment remains challenging due to expectations of higher mortgage rates and weaker consumer sentiment resulting from rising prices and other factors.」
Expectations of higher mortgage rates and weaker consumer sentiment caused by higher prices are explicitly identified as new concerns surrounding housing demand. - FY2022WorsenedAnnual report
「In the housing and real estate industries in which our Group operates, the challenging business environment continues, with real wages declining because of higher prices and construction costs rising. Mortgage rates have recently remained low, but future trends need to be closely monitored.」
While mortgage rates remain low, real wages continue to decline because of higher prices and construction costs continue to rise, with interest rate trends also identified as a factor requiring close monitoring. - FY2022-Q3WorsenedAnnual report
「In the housing and real estate industries in which our group operates, home purchase support programs and mortgage rates remain at low levels. However, the business environment remains challenging due to the impact on consumer sentiment of declining real wages caused by inflation and rising home purchase costs resulting from higher construction costs and residential land prices.」
Despite continued low interest rates and housing acquisition support measures, the disclosure explicitly states that lower real wages and higher home acquisition costs resulting from higher construction costs and residential land prices may affect consumer sentiment. - FY2022-Q2WorsenedAnnual report
「Meanwhile, concern has arisen that higher construction costs will lead to higher home prices and weaker consumer sentiment, leaving the situation difficult to predict.」
The disclosure specifies the challenging external environment surrounding housing demand, citing the concern that soaring construction costs will lead to higher home prices and weaker consumer sentiment. - FY2021-Q3Interest in detached homes rising and owner-occupied housing starts recovering, but procurement conditions remain challengingAnnual report
「Interest in detached homes has grown as lifestyles have changed in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, and owner-occupied housing starts have been trending toward recovery, turning positive year on year from November 2020. However, the business environment remains challenging due to surging timber prices caused by the timber shortage and intensifying competition to acquire residential land.」
The disclosure describes growing interest in detached homes and a recovery in owner-occupied housing starts resulting from changes in lifestyles, while adding soaring timber prices and intensifying competition to acquire residential land as concerns affecting orders and the business environment. - FY2021-Q2Interest in detached homes rising and owner-occupied housing starts recovering, but not yet back to previous levelsAnnual report
「Interest in detached homes has grown as lifestyles have changed in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, and owner-occupied housing starts have recently been trending toward recovery. However, they have not reached pre-pandemic levels, and the business environment remains challenging.」
The disclosure describes growing interest in detached homes and a recovery trend in owner-occupied housing starts resulting from changes in lifestyles, while stating that starts have not returned to pre-pandemic levels. - FY2021-Q1Growing interest in detached homes driven by new lifestylesAnnual report
「In addition to government home purchase support measures and low mortgage rates, the promotion of the “new lifestyle” announced by the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare has led to the expansion of telework and an increase in time spent at home, driving growing interest in detached homes. However, owner-occupied housing starts remain sluggish.」
The disclosure describes growing interest in detached homes driven by teleworking and increased time spent at home, in addition to low interest rates and housing acquisition support measures, while stating that owner-occupied housing starts remain sluggish. - FY2020WorsenedAnnual report
「In the housing business, orders received in the second quarter declined by approximately 30% year on year because contracts were postponed as a result of the impact of the spread of COVID-19.」
The previous concerns regarding the consumption tax increase and the spread of the infection materialized as an approximately 30% year-on-year decline in second-quarter orders received in the housing business. - FY2020-Q3RestatedAnnual report
「Orders received during the cumulative consolidated period declined year on year because of the consumption tax increase, the spread of COVID-19 and other factors.」
The disclosure continues to describe a year-on-year decline in orders received due to the consumption tax increase, the spread of COVID-19 and other factors. - FY2020-Q2WorsenedAnnual report
「Orders received during the cumulative consolidated period declined year on year because of the consumption tax increase, the spread of COVID-19 and other factors.」
The disclosure states that the consumption tax increase and the spread of COVID-19 materialized as an actual decline in demand, reflected in a year-on-year fall in orders received in the housing business. - FY2020-Q1RestatedAnnual report
「Recently, uncertainty about the outlook has continued because of concerns over declining consumer sentiment following the consumption tax increase implemented in October 2019 and the impact of the prolonged US-China trade tensions and the spread of COVID-19.」
Even after the consumption tax increase was implemented, the disclosure continues to describe external environmental risks to housing demand, including concerns over declining consumer sentiment. - FY2019WorsenedAnnual report
「Recently, consumer sentiment has weakened following the consumption tax increase implemented in October 2019, and the outlook is expected to remain uncertain because of uncertainty in the global economy, including the prolonged US-China trade tensions.」
The consumption tax increase, previously described as a prospective factor, is now described in terms of the decline in consumer sentiment after its implementation, making concerns over the external environment for housing demand more specific. - FY2019-Q2RestatedAnnual report
「During the second quarter of the current consolidated cumulative period, Japan's economy maintained a gradual recovery trend as the employment and income environment continued to improve, but uncertainty persisted due to trade friction and the planned increase in the consumption tax.」
The disclosure continues to describe a situation in which changes in policy and market conditions, including a consumption tax increase, could affect housing demand and business performance. - FY2019-Q1RestatedAnnual report
「Owner-occupied housing starts increased from the year-earlier quarter during the cumulative first quarter of the current consolidated fiscal year, but the market environment remains challenging due to the declining total population, the aging and declining number of carpenters, and the impending consumption tax increase.」
The disclosure continues to describe the challenging market conditions that could affect housing demand, including an impending consumption tax increase. - FY2018-Q3RestatedAnnual report
「Amid the declining total population, rising housing stock, anticipated amendments to the Inheritance Tax Act and an impending consumption tax increase, we carried out a company split to respond to the continually changing market environment,」
As in the previous disclosure, the company describes changes in market conditions that could affect housing demand, including revisions to the Inheritance Tax Act and an impending consumption tax increase. - FY2018-Q2WorsenedAnnual report
「Amid the declining total population, rising housing stock, anticipated amendments to the Inheritance Tax Act and an impending consumption tax increase, we carried out a company split to respond to the continually changing market environment,」
Compared with the previous general reference to trends in consumption taxes and other factors, tax policy factors were presented more specifically in the context of an impending consumption tax increase. - FY2016First statedAnnual report
「The housing business, which primarily serves individual customers, is susceptible to employment and income trends, government housing policies, trends in consumption taxes and other factors. Depending on future interest rate increases or economic recovery, orders received and net sales may decline, affecting the performance of our Group.」
The disclosure describes the risk that the housing business, which primarily serves individual customers, may be affected by employment and income, housing policy, consumption taxes, interest rates and economic conditions.