All of the Bank of Japan's monetary policy meetings in 2026 have taken place while USD/JPY was trading around ¥160. Ahead of the latest announcement, the market is assessing the strength of the authorities' stance on preventing further yen depreciation and the risk of intervention. The developments at the past 5 meetings, which saw yen appreciation and depreciation alternate, have been compiled, and a similar pattern is expected this time as well.
The Bank of Japan held a total of 5 monetary policy meetings in 2026. USD/JPY fell at 3 meetings, represented by bearish candlesticks indicating dollar weakness and yen strength, and rose at 2, represented by bullish candlesticks indicating dollar strength and yen weakness. On 23 January, Japanese and US authorities took steps to restrain yen depreciation, and USD/JPY fell sharply. On 31 July, Japan and the US carried out coordinated yen-buying intervention, and USD/JPY fell sharply again.
Looking at the dates of past meetings, USD/JPY traded around ¥160 on the meeting dates, while yen depreciation remained limited amid concern over the authorities' stance on preventing further yen weakness. There was a tendency for the yen to appreciate sharply when intervention was carried out.
Since the start of 2026, USD/JPY has remained around ¥160 at every meeting so far, and some market participants believe it could fall below this level again this time. Hedge fund trading patterns indicate that when USD/JPY is trading at dollar-weakness and yen-strength levels below its 120-day MA, selling dollars and buying yen is more likely to be profitable.